Pre-spring College Football Playoff tiers for the 2024 season
The Wisconsin Badgers and head coach Luke Fickell enter the 2024 college football season needing to improve upon their disappointing 7-6 2023 campaign.
There is good news and bad news.
Related: Wisconsin football’s biggest questions entering spring practice
The good news: year two is often the time for improvement for new head coaches in college football. It means one more year to cater the roster to the specific systems on offense and defense, and another year of continuity on the coaching staff and the field. Also, the College Football Playoff now contains 12 teams.
The bad news: Wisconsin has one of college football’s toughest schedules in 2024. That, and the new era of the Big Ten sees those schedules get even tougher as the years continue.
Wisconsin’s chances at making the 2024 CFP are interesting. A stellar season is required, though a 10-2 or 9-3 record may get the job done.
Looking ahead to the season, we’ve already ranked all 18 programs in the Big Ten, ranked the 18 starting quarterbacks, ranked all 18 head coaches, predicted each Big Ten team’s 2024 record and checked in on the Las Vegas win totals for each team in the conference.
Now, here are our pre-spring College Football Playoff tiers:
Playoff Locks
Georgia, Ohio State
Georgia and Ohio State will both make the Playoff this year barring an unforeseen collapse. They are SP+ two top teams entering the 2024 season, both not even needing a perfect year to get in. They will be in.
Near-Locks
Texas, Oregon, Ole Miss
These three teams would be Playoff locks in any other year. But 2024 brings some unknown with Texas and Oregon both joining new conferences, and Ole Miss relying on a volatile transfer portal.
A big key here is overall talent and quarterback play. All three teams have the talent, and Nick Ewers, Dillon Gabriel and Jaxson Dart respectively are definitely good enough.
Conference Favorites
Utah, Florida State, Boise State/Tulane
The new 12-team playoff includes five auto-bids. The Big Ten and SEC winners will be in, as will the winners of the Big 12 and ACC — conferences where Utah and FSU are favored respectively. Then there’s one more auto-bid, which Boise State could grab out of the Mountain West or Tulane out of the American.
Next-Best Teams
Penn State, Alabama, Kansas State, Notre Dame, Clemson
There will be several teams in the Playoff with 10-2 or 9-3 records. I’d bet each of these five teams are in under that criteria.
Talented, But Tough Schedule
Michigan, LSU, Oklahoma
It’s easy to predict a Michigan slide this year. LSU and Oklahoma, meanwhile, have the talent of the top tiers but play gauntlet schedules in the SEC. It would take special seasons from all three to crack the Playoff field.
Potential Party Crashers
Missouri, Tennessee, USC, Miami
Welcome to the category where the ceiling is the Playoff, but the floor could be missing a bowl game. There’s no better representation of that than Miami, but the other three fit in as well.
Stars Could Align
Texas A&M, Auburn, Kansas, Nebraska
These four schools are here for different reasons. Texas A&M always has the talent to get it done, Nebraska is ascending and has a cupcake schedule (relatively speaking), Kansas has been there at midseason the last few years and Auburn is Auburn.
Staring at 7-0 Nebraska (then likely 8-1) entering the final stretch of at USC, vs Wisconsin, at Iowa. Look out. pic.twitter.com/a7Vp0hX1aU
— Ben Kenney (@benzkenney) February 18, 2024
Super-Super Longshots
Wisconsin, Washington, Louisville, Arizona, North Carolina, Oklahoma State, Iowa, Iowa State, Michigan State
Sorry to Wisconsin fans and fans of the rest of these programs. Whether it’s a lack of talent (Iowa State), lack of offense (Iowa), new coach (Michigan State and Arizona), no defense (North Carolina), gauntlet schedule (Wisconsin) or let-down after last season (Washington), I don’t see a Playoff run for any of these schools.
No Chance, But Still Have To Be Mentioned
Florida, UCLA, TCU, NC State, Kentucky, Texas Tech, West Virginia, Arkansas, Minnesota, Oregon State, Pittsburgh, South Carolina, Baylor, Cincinnati, Mississippi State
Not much to say here. These teams could all be okay this season, though I’d doubt any crack the Playoff field. Again, this is a matter of a combination of talent, schedule and circumstance.
Not Worthy of Discussion
Colorado
Not worthy of Playoff discussion, so we will not discuss it.
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