PECOTA 2024 record projections aren’t favorable for the Cubs or White Sox
Baseball fans in Chicago could be facing a long summer.
Baseball Prospectus unveiled its preseason team PECOTA projections Tuesday — and the Cubs and White Sox aren’t being viewed favorably.
PECOTA — or Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm — projects a long, bleak season for the Sox with the team finishing last in the American League Central with a .404 winning percentage (65.5-96.5).
The Cubs, meanwhile, are coming off a winning season that saw them fall one game short of the postseason. But PECOTA has them finishing under .500 (80.2-81.8) with a 31.2% chance of making the playoffs and finishing second in the National League Central behind the St. Louis Cardinals.
PECOTA’s projections update leading into and over the course of the season. The Cubs roster does not appear to be a finished product. It’s clear they need more offensive upgrades over last year’s lineup and at a minimum need to sufficiently replace Cody Bellinger’s production if he is not re-signed.
The Cubs have predominantly addressed the pitching staff with the additions of Japanese left-hander Shota Imanaga and relievers Héctor Neris and Yency Almonte.
Trading for infielder Michael Busch, one of baseball’s top prospects coming off an MVP award in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League, gives the Cubs a much-needed lefty slugger. He will get every opportunity to play every day, and his offensive upside is tantalizing.
Even so, Busch is unproven at the big-league level, and a Bellinger-sized hole remains in the middle of the order. Until Bellinger signs elsewhere, he remains an ideal fit for the Cubs.
As their top prospects continue to matriculate to the upper levels of the minors, the Cubs should have high-ceiling depth to call on as needed, including top pitching prospect Cade Horton and infielder Matt Shaw.
The Sox suffered the fifth 100-loss season in franchise history, going 61-101 and placing fourth in the AL Central in Pedro Grifol’s first year as manager in 2023.
Additions include catchers Martín Maldonado and Max Stassi, infielders Nicky Lopez and Paul DeJong, starting pitchers Erick Fedde and Michael Soroka and relievers Tim Hill and John Brebbia. The team put an emphasis on defense this offseason.
Some familiar faces are gone. Shortstop Tim Anderson and closer Liam Hendriks are free agents, while relievers Aaron Bummer and Gregory Santos were traded to the Atlanta Braves and Seattle Mariners, respectively.
The Sox roster is still highlighted by All-Star center fielder Luis Robert Jr. But it remains to be seen if Dylan Cease will be with the team on opening day. The right-hander has been mentioned in trade speculation throughout the offseason.
