Patriots have more questions than answers as they prepare for a rebuild

The New England Patriots are in dangerous territory. They’ve been flirting with .500, though they’ve hovered below it for most of the season.

Considering the NFL draft awards teams for losing, the middle of the league can be purgatory. A team might just miss the playoffs then land in the middle of the draft order. New England looks like it’ll be one of those teams: not bad but not getting better quickly enough, either. That’s why tanking appeals, even if it doesn’t always work. But, of course, Bill Belichick has preached a win-at-all-costs philosophy for two decades, and he’s been consistent in 2020, even with a roster that cannot win consistently — not even at all costs.

There are so many questions about this roster as the Patriots (5-6) look toward a rebuild in 2021. Unless New England wins every single game left on its schedule, it is probably not making the playoffs in a competitive AFC East.

So let’s dive into the uncertainty surrounding the most important topics.

How many free agents will the Patriots have in 2021? Who are they?

New England has 29 unrestricted free agents, restricted free agents and exclusive rights free agents. It's a big group that includes starters like quarterback Cam Newton, guard Joe Thuney, center David Andrews, cornerbacks J.C. Jackson and Jason McCourty, running back James White, defensive tackles Lawrence Guy and Adam Butler, kicker Nick Folk and so many more. It's not just a big group, but also an important bunch -- at least to this year's roster. We now know, however, that this year's roster isn't getting it done. So it's fair to wonder if many of the bigger names will be gone while the middle-class contracts might stick around. Or vice versa. The good news is that New England should be cash-rich heading into a free agency where the salary cap is likely to decrease. That will give the Patriots significant negotiating power with their own players -- and the others on the market. That might also mean it's a year Belichick dives aggressively into the free agency pool. He might get favorable contracts, even with the best players available. That would be fun, wouldn't it? Think back to when the Patriots made their huge bid on Stephon Gilmore. What if they did that x2? *mind blown GIF*

What do they do with Cam Newton?

He went on a torrid run heading in Week 12, with four weeks of really efficient play. And that helped provide context: even when he was great (or, at least, cracking into top-10 quarterback production), the Patriots looked like a flawed team. The defense was the biggest flaw; it ranked last in the NFL in DVOA before seeing the Arizona Cardinals. But then the script flipped, with special teams and the defense dragging the team over the finish line. And Newton struggled. He was enormously inaccurate against Arizona to the point where there should be significant concern about his viability as a starter. If he puts up one game every five, maybe the Patriots can survive it with a better roster. If he dips into consistently poor play (like we saw earlier this season), it would be hard to envision an improved New England team surviving it. That's the conundrum as the Patriots figure out what to pay Newton. But it does mean there will be less competition for Newton's services. New England should absolutely try to bring him back. His statistics (4 passing TDs, 9 INTs) look much uglier than they are. Add in his nine rushing touchdowns and Newton's TD-INT ratio looks much better at 13:9. It's not good. But it's better. For the right price, Newton makes sense as a bridge quarterback while New England drafts and develops another. The truth is that rookie quarterbacks bring so much hope, but rarely immediately bring the caliber of quarterbacking that's on par with how Newton has played, especially when he's at his best. New England won't be in reach of the pro-ready options: Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson. Major development will almost certainly be a necessity, so they Patriots will want a bridge quarterback. Newton, Jimmy Garoppolo (if the 49ers cut him) or Jacoby Brissett are good options. We've got to bring members of the wolf pack back to New England.

How will they support the 2021 quarterback?

New England's roster boasts a good offensive line. They seem to have enough pieces to sustain the loss of Thuney, who may leave in free agency this offseason. If the Patriots lost Thuney and Andrews, then things might get more complicated as they fill holes. They will get some relief with tackle Marcus Cannon returning after opting out of 2020 due to COVID-19 concerns. It goes without saying: New England needs consistent play from the line to support Newton, Garoppolo, a rookie quarterback or whoever is under center. And then there's the question of who is making plays. The Patriots made a significant investment in the skill positions in the draft, with first-rounders Sony Michel, Isaiah Wynn and N'Keal Harry. New England also sunk a second-rounder into acquiring Mohamed Sanu. Aside from Wynn, none of those players figures to contribute much, if at all, in 2021. And the tight end position is a total wasteland, even after the Patriots drafted two players (Devin Asiasi, Dalton Keene) in the third round in 2020. So then what? It's possible the Patriots retain Damiere Byrd in free agency. Jakobi Meyers has looked really solid. Julian Edelman, when healthy, is probably a good player for 60% of the snaps per game. That's a decent three-person rotation. But they will need more firepower at receiver, whether they look to the draft or free agency (Allen Robinson, Marvin Jones, Corey Davis, Will Fuller). It's likely New England retains White and maybe even Rex Burkhead to keep playing in complement to Damien Harris. And then tight end continues to be tricky. The Patriots badly need Asiasi or Keene to develop into legitimate threats -- and because they probably won't know whether that's possible by free agency (because both rookies on injured), the Patriots will also have to invest in the position again. Free agency could feature Hunter Henry, Jared Cook, Tyler Kroft and Gerald Everett.

OK. So that's outlook on offense. What the heck will they do with the defense?

The offensive side of the ball is where so many fans focus. But this defense has been totally inconsistent from week to week. The good news? They seem to have budding studs in Jackson, Chase Winovich, Butler and Kyle Dugger. And the additional good news? New England will get Dont'a Hightower and Patrick Chung back in 2021 after they opted out of the 2020 season due to concerns about COVID-19. The bad news: the Patriots need to get faster at linebacker. Josh Uche, a 2020 second-rounder, appears to be a solution. Anfernee Jennings, a 2020 third-rounder, has been OK. Former undrafted rookie Terez Hall has been surprisingly promising. And Ja'whaun Bentley has disappointed. New England will need more help on the interior, especially if Guy is leaving in free agency. If the Patriots invest in their front seven in the draft and free agency, it's easy to see this defense getting better and fast.

But what about Stephon Gilmore? Wasn't there trade chatter about him?

It's been a weird season, with the Patriots fielding trade interest for Gilmore in training camp and at the deadline, according to reports. Gilmore is 30 years old -- which isn't a great age for a star cornerback. He's also set to make about $7.5 million, a number Gilmore surely thinks needs a bump. Behind Gilmore, the cornerback group includes Jackson (who almost certainly will return as a restricted free agent), Jon Jones, Joejuan Williams and Myles Bryant. Jason McCourty might be back for the right price. That's a group that loses a tremendous amount of luster without Gilmore, even if his play declines slightly from his 2020 level, which is still pretty darn good. Unless the Patriots get a late first-rounder or a high second-rounder (which feels unlikely), they would be wise to give him a pay bump in 2021 to smooth feathers. And then Gilmore can hit free agency in 2022.

The master plan...

So here's the rebuild that I propose, which Belichick will definitely not actually do. Let's do this. Free agents to retain: Newton, Jackson (RFA), Andrews, White, Burkhead, Byrd, Eluemunor, Butler, Folk, Simon. Free agents to sign: WR Will Fuller, DT Leonard Williams. Rookies to draft: Florida TE Kyle Pitts (1st round), Alabama LB Dylan Moses (2nd), Georgia QB Jamie Newman (Compensatory 3rd). It's a hefty investment on offense, both in the draft and in free agency. (Fuller will cost big money.) But the Patriots have taken six defensive players with their 13 picks in the top three rounds over the last three years. And New England is having a slightly better rate hitting on prospects on defense (Chase Winovich, Dugger and maybe Uche), rather than offense (Michel, Harry and, so far, Asaisi and Keene). And I could see New England spending on one bigger-ticket free agent on each side of the ball, depending upon how much they have to put into Newton's salary, which could be anywhere between $10 million and $20 million per year. But this plan gets a developmental quarterback, Newman, behind Newton, while also addressing problems in the defensive interior and at the offensive skill positions. I know, I know. I'm a genius. There are no flaws to this plan.

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