Packers playoff preview: Where are the 49ers vulnerable?
The underdog San Francisco 49ers are an ascending football team capable of poking and prodding at potential weaknesses and challenging the top-seeded Green Bay Packers during Saturday night’s NFC Divisional Round showdown at Lambeau Field.
But the 49ers are also vulnerable in some key areas that could make all the difference in a playoff game.
Here’s a closer look at where Kyle Shanahan’s team is exploitable and how the 49ers’ upset bid could crumble at the hands of the Packers at Lambeau Field.
Turnovers
(AP Photo/Tony Avelar)
The 49ers finished at -4 in turnover differential, meaning Kyle Shanahan’s team had four more giveaways than takeaways in 2021. Of the team’s 24 turnovers, 17 came in the team’s seven losses. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (12 interceptions, two lost fumbles) was responsible for 14 of the 24 turnovers, and he finished the season with 25 “turnover worthy plays,” the sixth-most among quarterbacks.
Also, Garoppolo is dealing with thumb and shoulder injuries, which could affect his grip and throwing ability, especially in the cold. He might be even more turnover-prone on Saturday night.
The Packers had the eighth-most takeaways (26) and the third-best turnover differential (+13) in the NFL this season. Matt LaFleur’s team was 11-0 when delivering at least one takeaway in 2021.
There’s one team more likely to lose on Saturday because of a big turnover, and it’s not the Packers.
Passing defense
(AP Photo/Jed Jacobsohn)
The 49ers finished in the middle of the pack in pass defense, ranking 25th in passer rating allowed (97.0), 16th in pass defense DVOA and 14th in overall coverage grade at Pro Football Focus. San Francisco’s pass-rush is a real threat, especially if Nick Bosa plays, but if the Packers can step up to the challenge along the line of scrimmage, the passing game could have a big night.
In the first meeting, Aaron Rodgers completed 69.7 percent of his passes, tossed two touchdown passes without an interception and finished with a passer rating of 113.3. All-Pro receiver Davante Adams caught 12 passes for 132 yards, including two huge catches on the game-winning scoring drive.
It’s worth noting that the 49ers did a terrific job containing the passing game of the Cowboys in the wild-card round, but the 49ers pass-rush dictated the game and the Cowboys couldn’t get out of their own way. If Rodgers is playing from clean pockets, he’ll likely shred his way through an overmatched secondary.
Protecting the QB
Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
The Packers’ pass-rush could be supercharged by the returns of edge rushers Za’Darius Smith and Whitney Mercilus. While the 49ers have been largely successful at protecting the quarterback this season, not all the metrics are confident in San Francisco’s ability to keep Jimmy Garoppolo out of harm’s way.
In the wild-card round, Garoppolo was under pressure on 11 of his 26 dropbacks, per Pro Football Focus. He completed only six passes for 38 yards and an interception under pressure.
In the first meeting in Week 3, Garoppolo was under pressure on 17 of his 44 dropbacks, and he completed only five passes and had three “turnover worth plays.”
Overall, the 49ers ranked 14th in the NFL in pass-block win rate in 2021. The Packers, with capable rushers on the edge and the interior, present a major challenge. If Garoppolo is consistently under pressure in obvious passing situations, it’s difficult to envision the 49ers avoiding turnovers and escaping Lambeau Field with a win.
Penalties
Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
The Cowboys committed double-digit penalties and probably lost the game on Sunday because of their undisciplined ways, but the 49ers also committed nine penalties, including six pre-snap penalties and two on special teams. Usually, that’s a good formula for getting beat in the playoffs. In fact, a late illegal procedure penalty wiped away the game-ending quarterback sneak and gave the Cowboys another shot with the ball.
Overall, the 49ers ranked 18th in the NFL in penalties per game (Packers ranked first) and nine games with at least seven penalties. Can Kyle Shanahan’s team play a clean game against the NFL’s most disciplined team?
1
1
