Packers will have to duplicate run game success vs. Vikings
It was a rough performance for a Green Bay Packers offense in Week 1 against Minnesota that would include them scoring just seven points while averaging 5.3 yards per pass, going just 1-for-3 in the red zone and 3-for-9 on third down, among other disappointing offensive numbers.
However, where they were able to find some success, which led to them moving the ball in the second half, was in the run game. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon finished with 92 rushing yards, averaging 6.2 yards per rush. In part, this level of production may have been helped by a Vikings’ defense that had a three-score lead and was protecting against the big pass play, but nonetheless, the run game should be an important factor for the Packers this Sunday.
Over the last six games, the Green Bay offense has really begun to find its groove, ranking as one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL by DVOA during that span, and their success on the ground has been a key part of that. In the four games where the Packers scored at least 24 points, Jones and Dillon rushed for over 550 yards at greater than five yards per rush. In the two games against Tennessee and Detroit that included just 26 combined points, the Green Bay running backs barely broke 100 rushing yards and averaged less than three yards per attempt. The Miami game was the exception to this, with the run game struggling to get going, yet the Packers still put up 26 points. A lack of attempts for Aaron Jones, a blitz-heavy Dolphins defense, and a struggling secondary would factor into those results on the ground.
But for the most part, the Packers’ ability to put up points and success on the ground have gone hand in hand.
This is a Vikings’ defense that ranks slightly below league average, allowing 4.4 yards per rush this season. Minnesota also ranks below the league average in ESPN’s run-stop win rate and run-defense DVOA.
Vikings’ defensive coordinator Ed Donatell runs a version of the Vic Fangio-style defense, meaning like Green Bay, Minnesota uses a heavy dose of cover-2. They also don’t blitz all too often either, which is where Aaron Rodgers has been very good this season. If executed properly, cover-2 will help take away the big passing play and force Rodgers and the Packers offense to be patient, taking what’s available underneath or relying on the check-down option.
The Rams did this close to flawlessly against Green Bay, and it helped keep the passing game in check. Afterward, Rodgers would even mention how it can be frustrating going against this style of defense. However, one of the better ways to attack cover-2 is through the run game. In that same game, Jones and Dillon rushed for 126 yards, with Jones averaging 5.3 yards per carry.
Hopefully, success on the ground against Minnesota will force them to come out of that two-high shell, which then should open up opportunities in the passing game. On top of that, success on the ground can often mean controlling the clock, which also means keeping Justin Jefferson on the sidelines. If the Packers can’t move the ball on the ground consistently, it’s likely going to result in the offensive line having to regularly contend with Za’Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter in pass protection, along with the offense as a whole having to put together long scoring drives through the air, something this group just hasn’t been very good at this season
Having Christian Watson available will be important for the run game’s success as well. He did not practice on Wednesday after suffering a hip injury in Miami. Without that big play ability on the outside, defenses have played the Packers much more aggressively this season, including a lot of cover-1 and press coverages, with the Detroit and Dallas games being prime examples of this. This can then make moving the ball on the ground more challenging.
Green Bay is also going to need their offensive line as healthy as possible–and some good news from Wednesday is that both David Bakhtiari and Yosh Nijman were at practice. There is the chance that the Packers have their preferred starting five available for Sunday, and that would be a far cry from the unit we saw on the field in Week 1, which included Jake Hanson and Royce Newman on the right side.
This is a Vikings’ secondary that is allowing 7.5 yards per pass attempt this season, the second most in the NFL, so in all likelihood, there will be opportunities to exploit that part of the defense. I’m also not naive; yes, this is a Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers’ led offense, so the passing game is going to be a big part of the game plan. But with that said, a productive run game has often been a catalyst to the overall success of the offense, and against this Minnesota defense, the opportunity to move the ball on the ground should be there. Green Bay just needs to take advantage of it.
