Orioles 2024 opening day roster projection: Craig Kimbrel addition alters pitching outlook

This time last year, a projection about the Orioles’ opening day roster would’ve been a futile exercise.

James McCann wasn’t acquired until late December, and Danny Coulombe was a Minnesota Twin up until the end of spring training. McCann didn’t technically make the opening day roster because of injury, and neither did Grayson Rodriguez, Ryan O’Hearn and Yennier Cano — three players who were pivotal to the club’s 101-win campaign.

Projecting the roster this year is also a difficult task. But that doesn’t mean we can’t try.

At the winter meetings last week, the Orioles made their version of a splash by signing closer Craig Kimbrel to a one-year, $13 million deal — a move that executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias said made his bullpen more “structured.” But a starting pitcher and perhaps a backup outfielder are still on Baltimore’s wish list.

With approximately two months until pitchers and catchers report for spring training, here is a projection for Baltimore’s 26-man opening day roster. This is based on players presently in the Orioles’ organization and does not consider those the organization could acquire or part ways with.

Starting pitchers (5): Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, John Means, Grayson Rodriguez, Tyler Wells

Other candidates: DL Hall, Cole Irvin

If the Orioles’ five-man rotation consists solely of players from this list, many will consider this offseason a failure. Plenty of starting pitchers of all shapes and sizes are available on the free agent and trade markets: front-of-the-rotation arms, mid-tier starters, veteran innings eaters, etc. After signing Kimbrel, Elias said the focus would further shift toward acquiring a starting pitcher to bolster the rotation. But the market is competitive, with the average annual value to acquire a quality starting pitcher at or above $20 million. If the Orioles choose not to pay what is required for an upgrade, they do have enough options to craft a solid rotation. Bradish, Means and Rodriguez are locks to make the rotation. Unless the Orioles acquire multiple starters or something unforeseen happens in spring training, Kremer is also likely to start one of the club’s first five games. The final spot could be a competition between Wells, Hall and Irvin, and those who don’t win could end up in the bullpen.

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Relief pitchers (8): Mike Baumann, Yennier Cano, Danny Coulombe, DL Hall, Cole Irvin, Craig Kimbrel, Cionel Pérez, Jacob Webb

Other candidates: Keegan Akin, Bryan Baker, Tucker Davidson, Dillon Tate, Nick Vespi, Tyler Wells

All of the “other candidates” pitched in the big leagues in 2023, and some have several years of experience as MLB relievers. That makes the bullpen decisions difficult, and if the Orioles acquire a starting pitcher, it could move Wells to the bullpen to join Hall and Irvin as starters to transition into relief roles. Adding Kimbrel — while he’s not injured closer Félix Bautista — bolsters a bullpen in need of a closer. Cano and Coulombe are then in the same roles they occupied for most of 2023 as manager Brandon Hyde’s most trusted right-handed and left-handed setup men, respectively. The rest of the bullpen is filled out by pitchers without minor league options: Baumann, Pérez and Webb. Tate could be healthy in 2024 after a lost season because of a forearm injury, but he has two minor league options that could entice the organization to have him open the season in Triple-A. So do Akin, Baker and Vespi, while Davidson, an offseason waiver claim, is a left-handed option if Pérez or Coulombe aren’t healthy.

Catchers (2): James McCann, Adley Rutschman

Other options: Maverick Handley

During Elias’ tenure, he’s acquired veterans to help bring along the young Orioles. In 2022, it was Robinson Chirinos, Rougned Odor and Jordan Lyles; in 2023, it was McCann, Adam Frazier and Kyle Gibson. Frazier, a free agent, is unlikely to be an Oriole in 2024, while Gibson has already signed a one-year deal to serve as a veteran innings eater for the St. Louis Cardinals. But McCann is back for another season, the last of a four-year, $40 million contract he signed with the New York Mets. He was an upgrade last season over Chirinos — both offensively and defensively — and Hyde regularly praised his clubhouse presence. Oh, and Rutschman is of course back for his third season after being an All-Star, winning a Silver Slugger and being a Gold Glove finalist in 2023.

Infielders (6): Gunnar Henderson, Jorge Mateo, Ryan Mountcastle, Ryan O’Hearn, Ramón Urías, Jordan Westburg

Other options: Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo, Connor Norby, Joey Ortiz, Terrin Vavra

If this looks familiar, that’s because it’s exactly the infield makeup the Orioles employed for much of the final three months of the season. As of now, Mateo and Urías are still on the roster, as the former’s glove and speed and the latter’s versatility and dependability make them valuable pieces. Mateo signed a one-year deal ahead of the Nov. 17 nontender deadline, while Urías was one of 13 arbitration-eligible players to be tendered a contract. It’s possible Baltimore moves one or both in a trade this offseason, but until that happens, they’ll continue getting big league playing time while prospects such as Joey Ortiz and Connor Norby rack up Triple-A experience. It’s also possible Holliday breaks camp with the team — in fact, Elias said it was a “very strong possibility” — but given he’s just 20 years old with 91 career Triple-A plate appearances, it shouldn’t be a surprise if he spends the first chunk of the season with the Norfolk Tides.

Outfielders (5): Austin Hays, Heston Kjerstad, Ryan McKenna, Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander

Other options: Colton Cowser, Sam Hilliard, Kyle Stowers

Elias said the Orioles adding an outfielder — perhaps a right-handed hitter — was possible this offseason, although he maintained his focus is on pitching. Aaron Hicks played a pivotal role as a switch-hitting veteran who could play all three spots, and he’s still available in free agency. If a reunion with Hicks or a different addition doesn’t occur, the backup spots behind Hays, Mullins and Santander could go to Kjerstad and McKenna. The former provides a solid left-handed bat and designated hitter option, while the latter can play all three positions, is a defensive replacement, a pinch-runner and a solid hitter against lefties. It’s possible Cowser, who struggled in his brief big league stint last year, makes the opening day roster in place of Kjerstad or alongside his fellow top prospect. Stowers is also a prospect who has struggled in the majors, but he displayed his top-tier power bat in the minors last year, a level of success Elias made sure to note during the winter meetings. And Hilliard, a left-handed hitter the Orioles claimed off waivers this offseason, can play all three spots and has 717 plate appearances over the past five seasons.