Oller's Second Thoughts: Pick chalk at Masters by going with Scottie Scheffler to win
March Madness ended Monday, but for me it was over well before that. I seldom pick chalk, which explains why my brackets bust early and often. I mean, when you have Marquette winning it all? What were you thinking, man?
But I like to learn from my mistakes, even if it's not always the case. So this time I am picking the favorite to win the Masters. Scottie Scheffler’s win probability is 4 to 1, which sounds about right. The Texan, who already owns one green jacket, is so dialed in that his swing coach, Randy Smith, has nothing to do.
“We’re working on nothing,” Smith said.
Scheffler won the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Players Championship in back-to-back weeks last month and was runner-up at Houston a week-and-a-half ago. He may not be a shoo-in, but he’s the smart pick. And I’m being smart. For a change.
Who might challenge Scheffler? Here are five players to watch:
Brooks Koepka: It pains me to bend to the will of LIV and give one of their guys a legitimate chance, but the 33-year-old desperately wants to add the Masters to his list of five major championship wins, and he loves Augusta National, where his ability to shape shots fits nicely with a course designed to test a player’s capacity to play the angles.
Rory McIlroy: He has to win the Masters some time, right? Er, not exactly. McIlroy is one green jacket from capturing the career grand slam – the Masters, PGA Championship, U.S. Open, British Open – which puts him in the same company as 11 others who won three legs of the slam but came up short on the fourth. If there is such a thing as wanting something too much, McIlroy qualifies, but despite his goose egg at ANGC he should be in the hunt on Sunday.
Jon Rahm: Another LIV defector, the defending Masters champion obviously knows how to navigate the tricky approach shots into Augusta’s undulating greens. He hasn’t finished outside the top 10 in five LIV events this year, but he also has not won.
Hideki Matsuyama: Winner of the 2021 green jacket, the 32-year-old from Japan would be a can’t-miss pick to finish top-5 if not for his putter, which too often acts more like a sling blade than an instrument of precision on the short grass. (He ranks 146th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained/putting.) But if he can find a way out of his putting funk, look out.
Corey Conners: My darkhorse/Marquette pick. Had to. The Canadian has finished inside the top 10 at Augusta in three of the past four years and has top-25 finishes in each of his last three tour starts. He also ranks second on tour, behind Scheffler, in greens in regulation. And GIRs are a must at the Masters, given the difficulty of the greens. Conners played his college golf at Kent State, so he’s an adopted Ohioan. And Buckeye Staters have done well at the Masters. Just ask Jack Nicklaus.
Coach Cal wearing scarlet and gray?
I’m not sure about the fit, but Ohio State would have received a lot of bang for the big bucks if it somehow could have worked out a deal to bring John Calipari to Columbus. Instead, after inquiring about the OSU job, Cal opted to leave Kentucky for Arkansas. Matt Norlander of CBS Sports reported “the timing wasn’t right” for Calipari to leave for OSU. Apparently, the timing righted itself for Arkansas.
The Buckeyes would not have been on the hook for Calipari’s huge buyout – Kentucky would have owed $30 million only if it fired him, not if he resigned – but his $8 million salary likely would have given OSU pause.
Still, can you imagine the buzz Calipari would have brought to Value City Arena? Jake Diebler, who is getting paid $2.5 million a year, may well turn things around, but he is a firecracker compared to the fireworks show that is Coach Cal, who would have put butts in seats just for being him.
“We spend a lot of time really focusing on the parents…”@UConnMBB Head Coach Dan Hurley, in advance of the National Championship game, on what sets them apart part in terms of recruiting. In his words, they aren’t afraid to say NO to ‘neon talent’ if the player and parents… pic.twitter.com/sKjJpRsYPk
— aaron wilbur (@aaronwilbur) April 8, 2024
Listening in
“They tell on themselves. They drop hints. You get the wrong type of people in that inner circle around your players and they’ll sink your program.” – Connecticut men’s basketball coach Dan Hurley, referencing parents who are “fans” of their kids instead of pulling for what’s best for the program.
Off-topic
Drove an hour west toward Bellefontaine to watch the solar eclipse. Well worth it. When totality occurred, a sense of joy and wonder welled up inside our party of four that is hard to explain. Few things exceed my expectations. This did.
This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: 2024 Masters favorite Scottie Scheffler will win second green jacket
