Nuggets offseason primer: CBA restrictions, Jamal Murray extension, Bruce Brown free agency and more
The Denver Nuggets have won the 2022-23 championship in a quick 4-1 series over the Miami Heat. Their path to the title was completed in a rather dominant fashion by going 16-4 in playoff games. They are set to remain contenders over the next few seasons led by Finals MVP Nikola Jokic, who is locked up for the next five years. The Nuggets will look to maximize their window by retaining their current talent and adding more through free agency and trade.
Here is a preview of the 2023 offseason for the Denver Nuggets.
State of the roster
The Nuggets are going into the summer with nine players under contract assuming Bruce Brown declines his $6.8 million player option. This puts them right at the $162 million projected luxury tax line, $5.9 million below the first apron, and $16.4 million below the second tax apron. If they keep the same core intact, they’ll have the $5 million taxpayer mid-level exception as their highest means for spending.
Denver had an efficient payroll considering they went to the Finals and won the championship. They paid just $17.3 million in luxury tax penalties, which was the second lowest among the nine luxury taxpaying teams in 2022-23. They are likely aiming to keep their payroll and tax penalty in 2023-24 at a similar level. This would mean being slight taxpayers again while staying below the second tax apron projected at $179.5 million.
The Nuggets already made the first trade of the offseason by swapping a protected 2029 first-round pick to the Thunder for the 37th overall selection in this year’s draft, a 2024 first-round pick, and a 2024 second-round pick. The motivation behind this deal is to add more cost-effective rotation players, a similar strategy as last offseason when they acquired Christian Braun and Peyton Watson. This could help extend their window under a more restrictive CBA while Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr. are all earning maximum contracts.
How the CBA and new luxury tax rules affect them
The Nuggets will likely be significantly impacted by the new CBA changes as soon as the 2025-26 season. The biggest reason is that there is a strong chance they will go over the second tax apron since Murray will be due for a new contract then. The newly implemented second tax apron would restrict teams above it from taking on more salaries than they’re giving out in a trade, aggregating players in trades, conveying cash in trades, using existing exceptions from the previous season, or acquiring a player under contract or generating a trade exception when sign-and-trading their own free agent to another team.
They would essentially be limited to increasing payroll just by re-signing their own players and signing draft picks. This is why it makes sense for the Nuggets to cycle future draft equity for more immediate draft picks. We could see more trades like the one they just made by contenders with expensive payrolls since there’s no cap on how many draft picks any team can acquire.
The 2025-26 season is also the first one where the luxury tax levels will be modified. Tax rates will rise sharply starting at the third tax level, which is currently projected at $11 million over the tax line. This is also the second in which the Nuggets are expected to enter the repeater tax should they be taxpayers in 2023-24 and 2024-25. This would significantly raise tax rates for every dollar in the third tax level or higher than the current luxury tax system allows.
Free agent: Bruce Brown
Bruce Brown is Denver’s most significant free agent this summer considering he’s a lock to decline his $6.8 million player option amount. The combo guard-forward was vital to their playoff and title run and usually closed games with the starters. He is a perfect fit in Denver but they will have some challenges toward retaining him.
The Nuggets will have Brown’s Non-Bird rights, allowing them to re-sign him to up to a $7.8 million starting salary. If he accepts a one-year deal for that amount, he would accrue Early Bird rights following the 2023-24 season. This would allow Denver to re-sign him in 2024 for up to four years, projected at $56 million. This salary structure would give Brown an annual salary close to the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, which is the likely amount most teams will offer him this summer.
It seems unlikely that Brown would take a discount after earning below-market salaries these past two seasons. If the Nuggets want to pay Brown more to keep him, they would need to open up the $12.2 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception. This would require them to reduce enough payroll so they can fit his salary and fill out the rest of the roster within the first tax apron projected at $169 million.
If Denver were to follow through with this, it would likely mean trading Porter Jr. He is in the second year of a maximum contract where he’s set to earn $33.4 million this season and was often the weakest link among their rotation players. The Nuggets could move Porter Jr. for cheaper frontcourt players and draft picks, and then use the increased flexibility to re-sign Brown while adding more depth to the roster.
Extension candidate: Jamal Murray
Jamal Murray will be extension-eligible during the offseason for up to three years, projected at $143.6 million. He is entering the fourth year of a five-year, $158 million maximum extension and has lived up to it after his contributions toward this year’s title. The Nuggets seem likely to offer the extension as a formality and it would make sense for him to capitalize on his playoff performance. If he reaches free agency in 2025, he will be eligible to re-sign with the Nuggets for up to five years, projected at $257 million.
2023-24 SALARY SITUATION
Players rostered: 10
Guaranteed salaries: $168.7 million
Non-guaranteed salaries: $0 million
Total salary: $168.7 million
Luxury tax space: $6.7 million over the tax
Apron space: $887,600 over the first apron
Second apron space: $9.6 million
Spending power:
Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5 million
Monte Morris trade exception: $9,125,000 (expires July 6, 2023)
JaMychal Green trade exception: $3,475,000 (expires June 23, 2023)
Bones Hyland trade exception: $2,201,520 (expires February 9, 2024)
Davon Reed trade exception: $1,902,133 (expires Feburary 9, 2024)
Will Barton trade exception: $370,397 (expires July 6, 2023)
Nikola Jokic
2023-24 salary: $46,900,000
Remaining salary guaranteed: $272,020,000 through 2027-28
Additional notes:
2027-28 salary is a player option projected at $61.9 million.
Jamal Murray
2023-24 salary: $33,833,400
Remaining salary guaranteed: $69,849,600 through 2024-25
Additional notes:
Extension-eligible during 2023 offseason for up to three years, projected at $143.6 million.
Michael Porter Jr.
2023-24 salary: $33,386,850
Remaining salary guaranteed: $119,579,850 through 2026-27
Additional notes:
2026-27 salary is partially guaranteed for $12 million. Fully guaranteed if he meets performance criteria.
Aaron Gordon
2023-24 salary: $22,266,182
Remaining salary guaranteed: $66,949,092 through 2025-26
Additional notes:
2025-26 salary is a player option worth $22.8 million.
$1,000,000 in likely annual incentives, $200,000 in unlikely annual incentives.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
2023-24 salary: $14,704,938
Remaining salary guaranteed: $15,440,185 through 2024-25
Additional notes:
2024-25 salary is a player option.
Bruce Brown
2023-24 salary: $6,802,950 (player option)
Remaining salary guaranteed: $6,802,950
Zeke Nnaji
2023-24 salary: $4,306,281
Remaining salary guaranteed: $4,306,281
Additional notes:
Eligible for rookie-scale extension during the 2023 offseason for up to five years.
Christian Braun
2023-24 salary: $2,949,120
Remaining salary guaranteed: $10,960,557 through 2025-26
Peyton Watson
2023-24 salary: $2,303,520
Remaining salary guaranteed: $9,073,556 through 2025-26
Vlatko Cancar
2023-24 salary: $2,346,606
Remaining salary guaranteed: $2,346,606
Additional notes:
2024-25 salary is a team option worth $2,346,606.
Ish Smith
Cap hold: $6,142,500
Type of free agent: Early Bird (unrestricted)
Jeff Green
Cap hold: $5,850,000
Type of free agent: Early Bird (unrestricted)
Thomas Bryant
Cap hold: $1,989,698
Type of free agent: Non Bird (unrestricted)
Reggie Jackson
Cap hold: $1,989,698
Type of free agent: Non Bird (unrestricted)
DeAndre Jordan
Cap hold: $1,989,698
Type of free agent: Non Bird (unrestricted)
Collin Gillespie
Cap hold: $1,774,999
Type of free agent: Non Bird (restricted)
Jack White
Cap hold: $1,774,999
Type of free agent: Non Bird (restricted)
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