No. 10 Notre Dame vs No. 25 Louisville: Numbers to know before Saturday's kickoff

We, as a species, evolved to have five fingers on each hand. If we had managed a sixth, Notre Dame’s regular-season winning streak against ACC opponents would not get much notice this week, not for another six games, if the Irish manage that many, which would be not until after a hypothetical win at Georgia Tech next Oct. 19.

But with 10 fingers apiece, we note streaks as they reach 10-game thresholds, and the No. 10 Irish (5-1) have beaten ACC opponents in 30 consecutive regular-season games, a streak beginning with a September 2018 win against Wake Forest, the Demon Deacons quarterbacked by some guy named Sam Hartman.

Before Notre Dame looks to extend that streak to 31 games against No. 25 Louisville (5-0) tonight at 7 ET on ABC, let’s rattle off a few other numbers to keep in mind at kickoff.

10-0: The Irish have beaten the spread in 10 straight games against ACC opponents, last losing against the spread in the overtime victory at Florida State to begin the 2021 season. Notre Dame has covered those spreads by an average of 16.1 points. Go ahead and remove back-to-back Senior Day shutouts and the Irish have still exceeded sportsbooks’ expectations by 12.4 points per game in the last eight games against ACC foes.

21-9: Notre Dame’s against the spread record during this 30-game outright winning streak.

6.5: Tonight’s spread, the Irish favored by 6.5 points.
3-0: Louisville’s record in one-score games this season.

0-2: Cardinals quarterback Jack Plummer’s record against Notre Dame the last two seasons, losing 27-13 with Purdue (and current Louisville head coach Jeff Brohm) in 2021 and 24-17 last year with Cal. Yes, this is Plummer’s third game against the Irish in three seasons, each with a different team. No, it does not need to be looked up, that is unprecedented, its only comparison JT Daniels facing Texas on three different teams across a six-year stretch.

Plummer went 25-of-36 for 187 yards in 2021, 5.2 yards per attempt, in 2021, throwing one touchdown before Brohm benched him for Aidan O’Connell. Plummer was sacked three times for 24 yards that day.

Last year, he completed just 16 of 37 passes for 184 yards, a 5.0 yards per attempt average, again throwing one touchdown. Notre Dame got to Plummer six times while with the Bears, costing his offense 47 yards.

Those 2021 stats should be noted more than 2022’s, given Plummer was operating within a Brohm offense back then.

9.24: Average yards after catch for Louisville completions against FBS competition, No. 1 in the country if excluding service academies.

37.0: The Cardinals’ scoring average this season.
18.2: Notre Dame has held opponents to 18.2 points below their average scoring output of all other games this season. For those not wanting to do the math, 37.0 - 18.2 = 18.8.

124: Career touchdowns for Irish quarterback Sam Hartman, seven behind former Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield (2013-17) for No. 6 all-time.
14,425: Career yards for Hartman, 61 yards behind former Washington State quarterback Luke Falk (2013-17) for No. 8 all-time, 182 yards behind Mayfield for No. 7 all-time and 242 yards behind former Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore (2008-11) for No. 6 all-time.

2 a.m. ET: Notre Dame’s likely approximate return time to South Bend tonight, a touch earlier than last week’s 3 a.m. return from Duke. The Irish have never before played four straight primetime games, with No. 9 USC (5-0) at 7:30 ET on NBC next week indeed establishing that all-time first.

There is an argument to be made that repeated primetime games is better for Notre Dame than alternating primetime games with afternoon games, establishing a month-long habit, effectively altering the Irish Circadian rhythm.

60,800: The L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium attendance record expected to be set tonight, its current record also set by a Notre Dame visit, on Labor Day in 2019.

49: Brohm’s Purdue upset No. 2 Ohio State, 49-20, in October of 2018, a game that arguably made Brohm’s résumé.

-4 percent: The Cardinals rush the ball 4 percent less than game state (down, distance, field position, time, score) would usually dictate, No. 92 in the country.
47.2 percent: Louisville enjoys success, relative to the first-down chains, on 47.2 percent of its dropbacks, No. 34 in the country. What stands out here is that the Cardinals’ passing offense ranks No. 12 in the country in expected points added per dropback. The difference there — No. 34 in frequency of succeeding but No. 12 in average amount of success — underscores Louisville’s dependence on big-plays. It has scored 10 of its 16 touchdowns against FBS competition on explosive plays.

1: Notre Dame has given up one big-play touchdown this season outside of garbage time.

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