What can Nick Caserio’s Patriots history show about the Texans’ draft plan?
This may be Nick Caserio’s second draft for the Houston Texans but, for many fans, it feels a lot more like his first.
Last year, despite finishing 2020 with the third worst record in the league, Houston didn’t have their first pick in the draft until the 67th overall selection in Round 3. Former coach-general manager Bill O’Brien had previously shipped off the team’s first and second round selections as part of the Laremy Tunsil deal and Houston was left without any capital to improve after their dreadful campaign.
Despite the relative lack of resources, Caserio did great. He found meaningful contributors in each round of the draft in Davis Mills, Nico Collins, Roy Lopez, Brevin Jordan and Garrett Wallow. For a draft that was considered hopeless, Houston left with a good deal of success.
The 2022 NFL Draft tells an entirely different story. Following the trade of quarterback Deshaun Watson, Caserio now plays with an entirely stacked board. The team has two first round picks in the Top 15 in addition to 5 overall selections in the Top 100, this is in addition to a bevy of capital on Day 3 if they want to move up.
The Texans’ relative ability to move up and down the board, controlling their own destiny and partially the narrative of the draft, has put the actions of the team into a hyper focus. Every action, interview, quote and report from Houston is under the microscope as the team attempts to decipher what the team may do just 10 days from now.
Unfortunately for the league, Caserio comes from the Patriots lineage. Houston has become a far less leaky organization since his arrival over a year ago and their front office structure seemingly models what Caserio did in New England as the Director of Player Personnel.
The Texans Wire was joined by Henry McKenna, managing editor of the Patriots Wire, to discuss lessons learned from Caserio’s time in New England and how they may be applied to the operation currently running on Kirby Drive.
Much of the speculation begins with how Caserio wants to start with constructing the roster. Will the GM invest in protecting his young quarterback, Davis Mills, or give new head coach Lovie Smith a legitimate blue chip piece to begin building around? In terms of how Caserio and Belichick built the Patriots, McKenna had this to say:
“Offensively, they’d build around (Tom Brady), often investing in tight ends and offensive linemen. Defensively, Bill Belichick and Nick Caserio seemed to value top-end talent at every level. But they would go against trends. So if the NFL really loved CBs, the Patriots would pay big money to EDGE players — and build a defense around that strength. When the NFL started fading back to EDGE players, Belichick and Caserio went back to paying CBs.”
Although this point isn’t helpful in terms of pointing towards a direction with the first two picks, it does underscore a larger point. Caserio has an immense understanding of value.
The Houston GM has a great understanding of the NFL as a marketplace and will attempt to take advantage at relative market inefficiencies. Expect the Texans to take advantage of any tumbling draft values. Even if a player may not fit a need, or a player was previously drafted at that position, Caserio will attempt to maximize value in finding the best players.
Football teams often make mistakes when positional value or relative value begins to overtake the production of guys on the field. At this stage in their rebuild, Houston likely steers clear of this fallacy and collect talent en masse.
McKenna also spoke towards their general strategy towards how Caserio & Belichik tried to build a winning roster. Interestingly, it seems to relate well to the approaching 2023 off-season
“(New England) wanted to build through the draft to surround Brady with talent. And when they had an acute and immediate need, they’d solve that problem by acquiring veterans — often (but not always) at a discount rate. Brady, of course, was a strong selling point.”
Next off-season, Houston is set to have over $100M in cap space. Expect them to attack positions of weakness that reveal themselves during the season and make a few splash free agent signings to shore up those deficiencies. Meanwhile, the two first round picks in 2023 can remain best-player, cornerstone oriented.
Building through the draft means acquiring the best possible talent rather than trying to replace the worst current starter on your team. Using the draft to trust your scouting process and free agency to attack specific positions is a time proven strategy. This is worth keeping in mind as Caserio likely makes a surprising selection or two next weekend.
Beyond strategy, there is one additional question that’s left fans puzzled. How do we interpret the Top 30 visits? Is a personal visit a sign of favor by the team or simply a step in the evaluation process? Should they be considered more likely to be drafted or are they a meaningless signal?
According to McKenna, the Top 30 visits are seemingly worthless noise in a sea of draft information:
“(With the visits) There’s not much to it. Sometimes, the Patriots would not draft from their Top-30 pool. Sometimes (as in the case of the Top-30 visit for N’Keal Harry), Bill Belichick would grow so enamored with a prospect that he would decide that is THE GUY. With the Patriots, there’s a lot of misinformation and smoke-screening. So every pre-draft piece of information should be taken with a grain of salt.”
Houstonians shouldn’t put too much stock into who Nick Caserio and the Texans ultimately decide to bring into their building. There are a ton of reasons for draft visits to be initiated and for every good visit there are assuredly visits that go poor. Only the teams, the agents, and the players themselves know the end goal and outcome behind these interactions.
To conclude, Caserio has a proven track record of success with both the New England Patriots and his first draft in Houston. Unfortunately, that track record involves a great deal of slight of hand from his front office people. Houston will ultimately have to wait and see what the team does next Thursday.
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