NHL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Saturday, March 23
It's not quite as busy of a Saturday for the NHL as has commonly been the case recently, but that's not to say the cupboard is bare. There are seven games on the docket starting at 7 p.m. EDT or later. With that in mind, here are my recommendations for who to target, and who to avoid, for your DFS lineups.
GOALIE
Petr Mrazek, CHI at SAN ($26): The Sharks have scored 2.17 goals per game to Chicago's 2.16, but the visitors have managed 27.1 shots on net per contest to San Jose's woeful 25.6. Also, Connor Bedard is healthy again, and Tomas Hertl is a Golden Knight. When all is said and done, the Sharks will likely be last in goals per game, and Mrazek could help get them there Saturday.
GOALIE TO AVOID
Stuart Skinner, EDM at TOR ($26): This game is studded with stars, but it also doesn't bode well for either starting goalie. Skinner has a 2.58 GAA, in part because the Oilers have only given up 28.6 shots on net per game. I doubt Edmonton can keep Toronto in check to that degree, though. The Leafs have averaged 32.6 shots on net per game, which is quite good, but their 3.62 goals per contest is even more impressive.
CENTER
Chandler Stephenson, VGK vs. CLM ($14): Stephenson does what you would like from a second-line center. He's tallied five goals and seven assists over his last 14 games, chipping in one or two points in more than half of those outings. The Blue Jackets are going to finish in the bottom five in GAA, and probably 31st in shots on net allowed per contest, and they are also playing on the second day of a back-to-back.
CENTER TO AVOID
Mika Zibanejad, NYR vs. FLA ($30): Zibanejad has been on a nice little run after a down stretch, but there is a good chance he's unable to add to that Saturday. The Panthers have a strong argument for being the second-best defensive team in the NHL. By that, I mean they are second in GAA and second in shots on net allowed per game. They also have the sixth-ranked penalty kill, and 24 of Zibanejad's 60 points have come on the power play.
WING
Jesper Bratt, NJD vs. OTT ($25): Bratt hasn't been as hot as his linemates Nico Hischier and Timo Meier, but he has nine points in his last 14 games. He's also shooting at a 4.5 percent rate in that time, so maybe he just hasn't been as lucky as his linemates recently, and luck is always in flux. Plus, Bratt has tallied 25 points with the extra man, which is notable because the Senators have the 31st-ranked penalty kill.
Fabian Zetterlund, SAN vs. CHI ($15): From a current Devil to a former one. Zetterlund does get to skate on the first line for San Jose, as well as the top power-play unit, if only because the team's options are limited. That being said, while his recent multi-point games against Anaheim and Columbus aren't remarkable, he also had three points against Dallas, which is more encouraging. While, all factors considered, I like Mrazek as a DFS goalie, Chicago has allowed 32.4 shots on goal per contest and has a below-average penalty kill. There is potential DFS value in both Zetterlund and the goalie he is likely to face.
WINGS TO AVOID
Steven Stamkos, TAM at LOS ($24): Stamkos' seven-game point streak could come to an end Saturday. That's partially because he also has a five-game streak of games with a power-play point, and the Kings have the league's best penalty kill. On top of that, Cam Talbot has regained the form that made him look like a potential Vezina contender early in the year. Over his last 11 outings he has an 1.83 GAA and .940 save percentage. With Stamkos' lofty salary, I have concerns about his ability to provide DFS value.
Sam Bennett, FLA at NYR ($21): Bennett has continued to defy the odds, and his 25.5 percent shooting through 69 games has refused to regress. That has helped him tally 48 goals. However, beyond puck luck, Bennett has also been helped by playing with Aleksander Barkov, and by all accounts Barkov is going to miss this game with an undisclosed injury. Additionally, 27 of those goals for Bennett have come on the power play, and the Rangers have a top-five penalty kill.
DEFENSE
Seth Jones, CHI at SAN ($22): Jones has the green light to let it rip, and he's done just that. He's tallied 66 shots on net over his last 18 games. Meanwhile, the Sharks have allowed a league-high 35.0 shots on net per contest. Jones will have opportunity, and with the Sharks also having the highest GAA in the league, that bodes well.
Noah Hanifin, VGK vs. CLM ($20): Since joining the Knights, Hanifin has four assists and 17 shots on net in seven games. His overall ice time is down a smidge, but his power-play time has ticked up ever so slightly. All in all, he's the same player with better teammates. Now he gets a visit from a Blue Jackets team in the bottom five in GAA and shots on goal allowed per contest that was playing in Colorado on Friday.
DEFENSEMEN TO AVOID
Brandon Montour, FLA at NYR ($21): After a torrid run, Montour has only two points in his last eight games, and they both came in the same matchup with Dallas, and both on the power play. As I noted, the Rangers have a top-five penalty kill. They also have Igor Shesterkin playing like a Vezina winner again. He has an 1.82 GAA and .943 save percentage in his last 11 games.
Victor Hedman, TAM at LOS ($20): Well, 28 of Hedman's 68 points have come on the power play. The veteran has done some great work on that front, but the Kings' top-ranked penalty kill looms. Los Angeles has also held opponents to 28.4 shots on net per contest, so just trying to get a puck on Talbot is hard, and Talbot has stopped 94 percent of the shots he's faced over his last 11 outings.
