NFL playoff picture: Ravens, with postseason spot secured, lead race for AFC’s top seed
The AFC playoffs might go through Baltimore.
With a 23-7 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday night, the Ravens (11-3) clinched a playoff berth and retained their top spot in the conference with three regular-season games remaining. Even though the Miami Dolphins (10-4) are close behind and head to Baltimore on Dec. 31, the Ravens have a 75% chance to secure the AFC’s top seed and the first-round bye, according to The New York Times’ playoff simulator, which estimates odds by randomly simulating the remainder of the season thousands of times.
While the AFC division leaders are unchanged from last week, there are plenty of teams still alive in the chase for the conference’s six remaining playoff spots.
Here’s a look at the AFC playoff picture if the regular season ended today, plus odds via The New York Times’ simulator:
1. Ravens (11-3, 1st in AFC North)
Remaining schedule: at 49ers, vs. Dolphins, vs. Steelers
Playoff berth: Clinched
Division title: 96%
First-round bye: 75%
What’s working: Lamar Jackson and his push for a second NFL Most Valuable Player award. While Jackson didn’t take advantage of a depleted Jaguars secondary on a windy night in Jacksonville, throwing for 171 yards with one touchdown and an interception, he rushed for 97 yards and made one of the plays of the year. If Jackson does indeed win his second MVP, putting him in a rarefied air, his pass to tight end Isaiah Likely in double coverage after spinning out of a tackle will be near the top of his highlight tape.
What isn’t: The likely season-ending knee injury to running back Keaton Mitchell is gut-wrenching, not only for its impact on the Ravens’ rushing attack but how abruptly it will end a breakout year for the undrafted rookie. Mitchell was blossoming into one of the team’s most important playmakers, including nine carries for 73 yards on Sunday night before being carted off the field. His role was growing by the week, and his speed is something that can’t be easily replaced. On top of that, the continued struggles of tackles Ronnie Stanley and Morgan Moses, who again rotated in and out of the game, are glaring. With San Francisco’s star pass rushers Nick Bosa and Chase Young looming on Christmas night, that’s a recipe for disaster.
2. Miami Dolphins (10-4, 1st in AFC East)
Remaining schedule: vs. Cowboys, at Ravens, vs. Bills
Playoff berth: 98%
Division title: 58%
First-round bye: 12%
What’s working: The defense, which held the Jets to a ghastly 1.9 yards per play in Sunday’s 30-0 win. At one point, it was 0.1 yards per play, which as The Ringer’s Benjamin Solak pointed out is about the same width as a smartphone. Zach Wilson started 4-for-11 for just 26 yards before suffering a concussion, and replacement Trevor Siemian went just 14-for-26 for 110 yards and two interceptions. Bradley Chubb had a field day with three of the team’s six sacks, giving Miami the pass-rushing punch it has often lacked since budding star Jaelan Phillips suffered a season-ending torn Achilles tendon.
What isn’t: Raheem Mostert scored two touchdowns to set Miami’s single-season record with 20, but the running game struggled to gain much traction, averaging just 2.8 yards per carry. On the bright side, Tua Tagovailoa completed 21 of 24 passes for 224 yards without star receiver Tyreek Hill, who sat out with an ankle injury suffered last week. Jaylen Waddle stepped up in Hill’s absence, catching eight passes for 142 yards, including a 60-yard touchdown.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-5, 1st in AFC West)
Remaining schedule: vs. Raiders, vs. Bengals, at Chargers
Playoff berth: Greater than 99%
Division title: 99%
First-round bye: 12%
What’s working: Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who had a season-high 101 yards from scrimmage and made an impressive leaping catch in the back of the end zone in a 27-17 win over the Patriots. While Edwards-Helaire has mostly been a disappointment since being drafted in the first round in 2020 and has been supplanted by injured starter Isiah Pacheco, he gave the offense a spark on a day when star quarterback Patrick Mahomes was yet again frustrated by dropped passes and costly mistakes from his receivers.
What isn’t: The receiving corps, yet again. Tight end Travis Kelce dropped a pass in the end zone. Kadarius Toney and Marquez Valdes-Scantling were again nonfactors. Skyy Moore was bailed out when his fumble early in the third quarter was overturned by a questionable defensive holding call. Mahomes looked frustrated on the sideline throughout the game, and it’s hard to imagine it gets much better when there’s even more pressure on his pass catchers.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6, 1st in AFC South)
Remaining schedule: at Buccaneers, vs. Panthers, at Titans
Playoff berth: 75%
Division title: 60%
First-round bye: Less than 1%
What’s working: Down two starting defensive backs, the Jaguars defense held its own Sunday night, at least until the fourth quarter. They sacked Jackson three times, and if they were playing any other quarterback in the league they would have had a lot more. The Ravens were able to pound away for 251 rushing yards, but with the Jacksonville offense struggling for much of the game, the defense kept hope alive.
What isn’t: With Christian Kirk out and Zay Jones battling through a knee injury before limping off late Sunday night, there are few receiving threats left to scare defenses. Calvin Ridley has caught just 13 of 33 targets over the past three games and has only 118 yards and zero touchdowns in that span. When teams can take out tight end Evan Engram, as the Ravens did Sunday, Trevor Lawrence doesn’t have a lot of options.
5. Cleveland Browns (9-5, 2nd in AFC North)
Remaining schedule: at Texans, vs. Jets, at Bengals
Playoff berth: 88%
Division title: 4%
First-round bye: 1%
What’s working: Divine intervention? Seriously, how did Bears wide receiver Darnell Mooney drop that Hail Mary that ended up in his lap? Joe Flacco continues to impress, throwing for 374 yards to lead a comeback from down 17-7 entering the fourth quarter in a 20-17 victory. His three interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown, were a big part of the deficit in the first place, but this team has shown toughness late in games. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Cleveland set a franchise record with its fifth win this season with a game-winning score in the final two minutes of regulation.
What isn’t: The running game. Injuries on the offensive line and to star running back Nick Chubb are to blame, but the reason the Browns have had to rely so much on Flacco is their inability to get anything going on the ground. They had just 29 yards on 18 carries against Chicago and have averaged more than 4 yards per carry once over the past five games.
6. Cincinnati Bengals (8-6, 3rd in AFC North)
Remaining schedule: at Steelers, at Chiefs, vs. Browns
Playoff berth: 88%
Division title: 4%
First-round bye: 1%
What’s working: Tee Higgins is more than capable of being backup quarterback Jake Browning’s go-to receiver down the stretch if star wideout Ja’Marr Chase is sidelined with a shoulder injury. Higgins’ incredible game-tying touchdown catch in the final minute of regulation, in which he leaped over a defender and somehow stretched the ball across the pylon while falling out of bounds, saved the day in a 27-24 overtime win over the Vikings. The pending free agent might not be in Cincinnati much longer, but he could be the difference in the playoff push.
What isn’t: Injuries keep piling up. Not only did the Bengals lose Chase on Saturday, but defensive tackle DJ Reader left the game with a lower-body injury. Reader is a critical piece in the middle of the defense, though fellow tackle BJ Hill remarkably has two interceptions in the past two games.
7. Indianapolis Colts (8-6, 2nd in AFC South)
Remaining schedule: at Falcons, vs. Raiders, vs. Texans
Playoff berth: 53%
Division title: 20%
First-round bye: Less than 1%
What’s working: First-year coach Shane Steichen’s offense keeps chugging along, no matter who’s on the field. When running back Zack Moss injured his right arm after scoring a touchdown in the second quarter, Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson combined for 157 yards on 28 carries after barely getting any touches through the first 14 weeks of the season. Gardner Minshew also bounced back with three touchdown passes and, most importantly, no turnovers.
What isn’t: Injuries. Sound familiar? In addition to Moss, star wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. suffered a concussion after taking a big hit from safety Damontae Kazee, who was ejected. D.J. Montgomery, who entered Saturday with three career catches, stepped up with a 14-yard touchdown reception, but more will be expected of rookie Josh Downs and second-year receiver Alec Pierce if Pittman is out for a while.
8. Houston Texans (8-6, 3rd in AFC South)
Remaining schedule: vs. Browns, vs. Titans, at Colts
Playoff berth: 55%
Division title: 20%
First-round bye: Less than 1%
What’s working: First-year coach DeMeco Ryans. Without rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud and several other key players, the Texans still found a way to win Sunday, beating the Titans in overtime, 19-16. Houston made crucial stops to keep its struggling offense in the game, holding Tennessee to 3.9 yards and play and recording seven sacks, the last of which knocked rookie quarterback Will Levis out of the game with 1:49 left in overtime. Ryans might be the Coach of the Year because of how quickly he’s made this franchise a playoff contender.
What isn’t: Case Keenum threw an early pick-six that put Houston down 13-0 in the second quarter, but he shook that off to help lead the rally. His touchdown pass to Noah Brown with 3:03 left in regulation tied the game, and he did just enough to set up Ka’imi Fairbairn for the game-winning 54-yard field goal. The 35-year-old Keenum is serviceable, but the Texans need Stroud to return from his concussion to make any noise in the playoff race.
9. Buffalo Bills (8-6, 2nd in AFC East)
Remaining schedule: at Chargers, vs. Patriots, at Dolphins
Playoff berth: 71%
Division title: 42%
First-round bye: Less than 1%
What’s working: The running game. James Cook had a career-high 179 rushing yards and scored two touchdowns, part of a dominant day for the Bills offense. Josh Allen only threw for 94 yards, including a 24-yard touchdown pass to Cook, and ran for a score, but he didn’t need to wear his Superman cape the entire game as Buffalo rushed for 266 yards and held the ball for more than 35 minutes. The defense also deserves a mention for shutting down a red-hot Cowboys offense led by Dak Prescott, who was held to just 43 passing yards in the first half.
What isn’t: Stefon Diggs led the team with four catches for 48 yards Sunday, but he has not been much of a factor in recent weeks. In fact, he hasn’t eclipsed 100 receiving yards since Oct. 15 and has just one touchdown catch in the past five games. Allen and company have been getting along just fine, but the Bills would be wise to get their star receiver more involved.
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7, 4th in AFC North)
Remaining schedule: vs. Bengals, at Seahawks, at Ravens
Playoff berth: 3%
Division title: Less than 1%
First-round bye: Less than 1%
What’s working: Coach Mike Tomlin called his team a “fundamentally poor football group right now” after Saturday’s 30-13 loss to the Colts. Pittsburgh hasn’t scored more than 20 points in five straight games, and the defense has fallen well short of its high standards despite another standout season from pass rusher T.J. Watt. Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick also left Saturday’s game with a knee injury, further depleting a banged-up unit.
What isn’t: With Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth, it looked like the Steelers had some of the best young playmakers in the league. The offense was expected to ascend under second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett, but his ankle injury has derailed any potential growth. A lack of effort from Johnson and Pickens at various points this season doesn’t instill much confidence in this group figuring it out any time soon.
11. Denver Broncos (7-7, 2nd in AFC West)
Remaining schedule: vs. Patriots, vs. Chargers, at Raiders
Playoff berth: 21%
Division title: 1%
First-round bye: Less than 1%
What’s working: Regardless of what you think about coach Sean Payton and quarterback Russell Wilson, the Broncos have two promising cornerstones in wide receiver Courtland Sutton and cornerback Pat Surtain II. Even when the team has struggled, they have consistently produced at a Pro Bowl-level, including Saturday night’s 42-17 loss to the Lions.
What isn’t: Where do we start? Payton’s sideline eruption toward Wilson after a botched goal-line sequence late in the third quarter seems indicative of mounting frustration between coach and quarterback. Payton said after the game that he was upset with the offensive offside penalty that nullified a touchdown on the drive, but that feels like a convenient excuse. It was the Broncos’ third road game in 13 days, so fatigue could have been a factor, but the effort on display Saturday was simply not good enough for a team fighting to keep its season alive.
