NFL player prop of the day: Ryan Tannehill is set up for his best season yet
At some point, we have to let go of our opinions of Ryan Tannehill with the Miami Dolphins and acknowledge that he's a good quarterback.
It's not like Tannehill was terrible with the Dolphins. He just was a little lackluster, and never lived up to his billing as the eighth pick of the draft. Then the Dolphins dumped him in a trade to the Tennessee Titans. Miami took on $18.4 million in dead cap space just to get rid of him. Then he became a very good quarterback for Tennessee.
What Tannehill has done with the Titans is rare but not unprecedented. In a new and better situation, Tannehill has reached a level we never saw from him with Miami. He has put together a 110.6 passer rating in two Titans seasons. Breakouts don't often happen past 30 years old, but this one did.
Tannehill could be even better this season, due to a key addition.
Ryan Tannehill coming off two good seasons
Tannehill's passing yardage total at BetMGM is 4,175.5. That is a high total based on what he has done with the Titans.
Over a 17-game season, Tannehill would have to throw for more than 245 passing yards per game to hit that over. In his first two Titans seasons he averaged 228.5 and 238.7 yards per game. He has been an efficient, low-volume passer. Derrick Henry was and still is the engine of the offense.
But the Titans just added a future Hall of Fame receiver. Now that Julio Jones will be in the offense alongside A.J. Brown, the Titans could open things up just a bit. Corey Davis had a nice season last season, but he doesn't have the ability to boost a quarterback like Jones does.
There are other factors in Tannehill's favor. The Titans defense is not expected to be very good, which should lead to more high-scoring games and presumably more pass attempts for Tannehill. Henry is a one-of-a-kind back, but he still has been under a heavy workload and Tennessee might want to lessen that a bit. And if Henry misses any games, the Titans could turn into one of the heaviest pass teams in the league. That wouldn't help Tannehill's efficiency, but his yardage could soar.
Usually I like to lean unders, and that's especially true when a line is set for a career high. Hitting 4,176 yards wouldn't be a career high for Tannehill, but it would be something he hasn't done as a Titan. Still, it's the rare situation in which I'll take a player to go over a high total. The Jones addition changes the Titans offense, and I assume he still has prime years left and will be reasonably healthy. Brown is due for a huge breakout too.
Unlike most props, I can see more going right for Tannehill than can go wrong. We know Tannehill is a good quarterback. This year he could put up some career-high numbers.
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