NFL player prop of the day: After a career year, what does Stefon Diggs do for an encore?
Even the most wildly optimistic supporters of Buffalo Bills receiver Stefon Diggs couldn't have seen his 2020 coming.
Diggs, acquired in an offseason trade with the Minnesota Vikings, has always been a good NFL player. But he had not made a Pro Bowl and topped out at a 1,130-yard career high with the Vikings. He had special abilities, like his slick route running, but he had never been in an elite tier. It's not like the Bills, with Josh Allen at quarterback, were a great passing team before last season.
Then Diggs was the best receiver in football last season.
Diggs led the NFL with 127 catches and 1,535 yards. Can he do that again?
Stefon Diggs is coming off an amazing season
The highest receiving yardage total at BetMGM for the 2021 season is unsurprisingly Diggs. It's 1,350.5.
It's easy to look at last season's yardage, look at this season's total at BetMGM and punch a ticket on the over. Especially with a 17-game season. It's rarely that easy. That's why the line isn't higher.
It's worth noting that Diggs' previous career high was 220 yards less than what he did last season. He's in a different situation, but a 1,500-yard season is tough to repeat. Only four receivers ever have back-to-back 1,500-yard seasons: Calvin Johnson, Antonio Brown, Marvin Harrison and Andre Johnson (Jerry Rice had a 1,499-yard season in 1994, and another yard would have given him three straight 1,500-yard seasons). Just because a player hits that high of a number doesn't mean he can ever do it again.
Diggs could tail off from 1,500 yards and still hit the over, but it's always tough to bet the over for the highest total on the board. The problem with betting the under is there's no great argument for a Diggs decline. The Bills were one of the most heavy first-down and neutral-script passing teams in the NFL, and it worked for them. It's not like Diggs piled up stats when the Bills trailed; they went 13-3 last season and most of their wins in the second half of the season were by double digits. Emmanuel Sanders was brought in at receiver but it's not like he'll steal many targets from Diggs. Diggs had a great situation last season — even if we didn't know that ahead of time — and it's all still in place.
This is a prop that I'll probably not be playing. If you made me pick one or the other I'd go under, due to the "more things can go wrong than they can go right" corollary. But if you decided to take Diggs and the over, you certainly have plenty of reasons to back that up.
It's just a big number Diggs will need to hit.
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