There aren't many excuses for Tua Tagovailoa this season.
Last season, the Miami Dolphins rookie quarterback had a lot working against him. He was coming off a major hip injury. Tagovailoa admitted he didn't know the playbook that well, and the offense was mostly built around Ryan Fitzpatrick's strengths anyway. Fitzpatrick was waiting in each game to take over if Tagovailoa struggled, which is not ideal for a rookie. And the Dolphins' offensive line and skill-position group were not great.
That should all change in Tagovailoa's second year. That makes his player props a little more interesting.
Tua Tagovailoa looks for better results
Tagovailoa's totals at BetMGM are 24.5 passing touchdowns and 3,950.5 passing yards. I like the over on both props.
Some have given up way too soon on Tagovailoa. He wasn't even that bad as a rookie. He just wasn't great like Justin Herbert or pre-injury Joe Burrow. Tagovailoa was way too safe, rarely throwing downfield. He didn't make many plays happen. But, he was a rookie.
Tagovailoa should be more healthy another year removed from that bad hip injury at Alabama, and has said he is. Fitzpatrick signed with the Washington Football Team, so there's no danger of Tagovailoa being benched during games. It's his job. We can argue about whether Tagovailoa should have known the playbook better last season, but he admitted he didn't and that should change. Not having a normal offseason last year did not help him.
And the team around Tagovailoa is pretty good. The Dolphins drafted receiver and (Tagovailoa's former Alabama teammate) Jaylen Waddle with the sixth overall pick and made an underrated signing with Will Fuller V. The Dolphins have made plenty of draft investments in the offensive line and that group should be better with another year of experience. Miami has an intriguing offense.
The skepticism over Tagovailoa isn't entirely unfounded. He wasn't great last season. There should be questions about whether he'll ever fully bounce back from that hip injury. Maybe he'll just be a risk-averse quarterback who can't get over the mental block of taking chances downfield. It was a lot easier for him to throw it deep at Alabama when all of his receivers were wide open downfield.
That's why the numbers are so low. Getting to 3,951 yards and 25 touchdowns in a 17-game season is a perfectly reasonable expectation for an average passing game. We should know a lot more about Tagovailoa after this season.
Previous BetMGM player prop breakdowns