NFL player prop of the day: DeVonta Smith could be focal point of Eagles right away
The SEC is practically the NFL's junior varsity. More talent comes out of the the conference than any other, and it's not all that close.
Alabama's DeVonta Smith dominated the SEC to a historic extent.
There's a good reason Smith was the first receiver to win a Heisman Trophy since Desmond Howard in 1991. He led FBS with 117 receptions, 23 receiving touchdowns and 1,856 receiving yards last season. He set SEC career records for receiving touchdowns with 46 and receiving yards with 3,965. He became a first-round pick of the Philadelphia Eagles and immediately their top receiving option.
Yet, the BetMGM totals for Smith's rookie season are pretty low.
DeVonta Smith has fairly low totals at BetMGM
Smith's totals at BetMGM are 749.5 receiving yards and 5.5 receiving touchdowns. Both seem low.
Smith was a prolific scorer in college, and while it won't be as easy in the NFL he's a threat to score at all times. Scoring six through the air over a 17-game season isn't too much to ask. It's easy to see him breaking at least a few long scores like he did at Alabama.
But since touchdowns are volatile, let's focus on the yardage instead. While acknowledging that rookies can sometimes struggle and Smith's small frame could be an issue in the NFL, he should cruise past 750 yards as long as he isn't injured.
Perhaps Dallas Goedert leads the Eagles in receiving yards, but among wideouts Smith is easily the top option. Jalen Reagor, a 2020 first-round pick, can't be left for dead after an injury-plagued rookie season. But if you're picking between Smith, Reagor or anyone else to lead the Eagles wide receivers in yardage, you wouldn't take long to pick Smith.
Being the featured wideout in any offense gives a receiver a shot at 750 yards. We don't know new coach Nick Sirianni's philosophy that well, but the Eagles should have a normal passing volume. They aren't expected to be very good, so there will be many games in which they're trailing and throwing. Smith should get 100 targets (again, assuming health).
Even if you don't think much of Jalen Hurts, he showed some good signs last season and shouldn't be that bad. He'll be good enough to get the ball to his top playmaker.
Smith's college stats look like a video game. He had 142.8 yards per game last season in the best conference in college football. We're beyond the era in which rookie receivers aren't a threat for big seasons. Even if Smith doesn't challenge Justin Jefferson's new rookie record for receiving yards, he doesn't even need to come close to that to cash a ticket on the over.
Previous BetMGM player prop breakdowns
Dak Prescott 4,775.5 passing yards
Derrick Henry 1,525.5 rushing yards and 13.5 rushing TDs
