NFL Playoff Picture: If Cowboys beat Eagles, that's when NFC gets interesting
It wouldn't be Florida State/CFP level chaos, but if you like tiebreaker math and uncertainty in your NFL playoff race, then you want a Dallas Cowboys win on Sunday.
If the 10-2 Philadelphia Eagles beat the 9-3 Cowboys, that practically clinches the NFC East. The Eagles would have a two-game lead and the tiebreaker based on a season sweep. It would also keep the Eagles a game ahead of the 49ers for the very important race to get the No. 1 seed and bye in the NFC.
Everything is up for grabs atop of the NFC if the Cowboys win.
If Dallas wins, the NFC East would be tied with four games to go. The Eagles still wouldn't be in as bad of shape for the division as you'd think. Dallas has the much tougher remaining schedule, though Philadelphia still has tricky games too. Here's that breakdown:
Dallas: vs. Bills, at Dolphins, vs. Lions, at Commanders
Philadelphia: at Seahawks, vs. Giants, vs. Cardinals, at Giants
The Eagles are also in good shape with the tiebreaker if they lose Sunday and then both teams win out after that. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head, and they'd split that. Second is record in division games and third is record in common games, and they'd split those as well. The fourth tiebreaker is conference games. The Eagles have one conference loss (two if they lose Sunday) and the Cowboys have three. The Cowboys need the Eagles to get to four losses to win the division.
The Eagles' grip on the NFC's top seed would be a lot more tenuous with a loss Sunday. The 49ers are 9-3 and have the tiebreaker over Philadelphia due to last Sunday's head-to-head win. If the Eagles win out, they're the No. 1 seed. But one loss would open it up for the 49ers.
The 49ers have some potential losses in the upcoming schedule (vs. Seahawks, at Cardinals, vs. Ravens, at Commanders, vs. Rams) but it's also possible they win out, especially with the Ravens game at home. The 49ers also should be OK in a three-way tie if the Lions stay in the top seed race, due to a 7-1 conference record.
An Eagles win on Sunday would be huge for them. The NFC East would be all but clinched and they'd still lead the 49ers in the NFC. With an Eagles loss, the top of the NFC would be up for grabs.
Here are the Week 14 games that will have the biggest impact on the playoff picture:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
Someone still has to win the NFC South, and it would get a little more interesting if the 5-7 Buccaneers beat the 6-6 Falcons. If the 5-7 Saints beat the 1-11 Panthers as well, there would be a three-way tie atop the division. The Falcons already won at Tampa Bay, so a loss by the Bucs would practically eliminate them from the division race.
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals' huge win on Monday night changes the AFC wild-card race. Not only did the Bengals win to get to 6-6, Jake Browning looked very good and gives Cincinnati some hope. The 7-5 Colts are in good shape, but this suddenly became a tough road game in their path.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns
Trevor Lawrence's status for Sunday with his ankle injury is the big story. The Jaguars' grip on the AFC South took a big hit regardless of who plays quarterback. They lost on Monday night and now face the Browns and Ravens in back-to-back games. The Texans and Colts are only one game behind in the division. Jacksonville is in good shape for tiebreakers due to a 4-1 division record, but the Jaguars need to win games. So do the Browns, who are still fighting for a wild card at 7-5.
Minnesota Vikings at Las Vegas Raiders
The 6-6 Vikings have become a big variable in the wild-card race. The last time we saw them, Joshua Dobbs fell apart in a home loss against the Bears. Does that mean the Vikings are fading? Will Justin Jefferson's return from injury get the Vikings back on track? If the Vikings lose to the Raiders, that might be the sign they won't stick in the race, which could end up opening a playoff slot for a team that gets hot down the stretch.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Both teams have urgency. The Bills are 6-6 with a tough remaining schedule, and they'll need to win tough games to make the playoffs (not just play well and ultimately lose, like they did against the Eagles). The Chiefs are still OK in the race for the AFC's No. 1 seed because the Jaguars lost and the Ravens and Dolphins have tough games coming up. But losing a second straight game wouldn't be a great idea.
