NFL picks against the spread: 49ers get their first true test against the Cowboys

The overreaction to the NFL week to week makes it seem like a series of 18 one-game seasons.

But if you can set your recency bias aside, it's hard to argue against the San Francisco 49ers being the best team in the NFL after four weeks. They've been incredible, though there is one asterisk.

The 49ers haven't played anyone. The Pittsburgh Steelers have offensive issues, the Los Angeles Rams are probably the 49ers' best opponent and they're not great, the New York Giants are a dumpster fire and the Arizona Cardinals are talent deficient. According to FTN Fantasy's DVOA, the 49ers have played the weakest schedule in the NFL to date. The 49ers have handled business against some bad opponents, and that's the sign of a good team too, but they haven't really been challenged.

That changes Sunday night. The 49ers face the Dallas Cowboys in one of the best games on the entire NFL regular-season schedule.

The 49ers and Cowboys have similar strengths. Both are incredible defensively. Each team has a great set of offensive playmakers, though the 49ers are deeper in that category. Dallas has also blown out three of its four opponents. The biggest difference between the teams to date is that the Cowboys tripped up in an upset loss at Arizona. But if you're making a list of the obvious Super Bowl contenders, the 49ers and Cowboys both have to be on it.

The 49ers do seem like the team with the bigger upside. They have more playmakers on offense. The defense is elite. Now that Brock Purdy has not only repeated what he did last season but has improved on it, quarterback isn't a worrisome issue. They look like a dominant team.

But we do need to confirm all of that against an elite opponent. I believe that will happen. I'll take the 49ers as a 3.5-point favorite at BetMGM. Dallas is very good but I think the 49ers are on a slightly higher level. Either way, we're about to see two clear Super Bowl contenders square off Sunday night.

Here are the picks against the spread for Week 5 of the NFL season, with the odds from BetMGM:

Commanders (-6.5) over Bears

Well, this isn't the Thursday night matchup anyone was clamoring for, but we broke down a strange point spread in The Daily Sweat.

Bills (-5.5) over Jaguars

I believe the Jaguars have a bigger home-field advantage in London than they do in Jacksonville. They can navigate the unusual travel much better having done it so often. The Jaguars are in London for a second straight week. And despite all of those edges, they're facing a Bills team that has won its last three games by 28, 34 and 28 points. And I'm still not too impressed with anything I've seen from the Jaguars.

Texans (+1.5) over Falcons

It seems we're overreacting a little to the Texans, but it's hard to deny they've looked good the past two weeks. C.J. Stroud looks like the real deal. The Falcons are back from London, usually when teams take a bye. The excitement about Houston has pushed the spread down, but I do think the Texans are the right side.

Panthers (+10) over Lions

It's scary to take the Panthers. They didn't score one offensive touchdown last week at home against the Vikings, who aren't exactly the 2000 Ravens on defense. But half of NFL betting is taking a side that you can't make a reasonable case for. Those sides hit more than we like to remember.

Colts (+1.5) over Titans

I have no idea what to make of the Titans. None. They looked absolutely awful in Weeks 1 and 3, then pretty good in Weeks 2 and 4. I guess I'll ride the odd/even trend. The Colts aren't a bad team. If nothing else, Anthony Richardson is a treat to watch.

Dolphins (-11.5) over Giants

I rarely take a double-digit NFL favorite. But the Dolphins are going to be a bit angry after getting blown out last week. And you saw the Giants on Monday night. I have no faith in them keeping this close.

Saints (+1) over Patriots

New England is coming off a really bad game and while I generally would back Bill Belichick in that spot, the Patriots also have a lot of injury issues. Derek Carr didn't look healthy for the Saints last week and that's a concern, but I have more worries about the Patriots right now.

Steelers (+4) over Ravens

The Steelers are going with either a hobbled Kenny Pickett or a healthy Mitchell Trubisky, and I'm not sure I trust either. But I do like Pittsburgh to rebound after being embarrassed. Baltimore got a really nice win in the AFC North race and the Ravens look good, but it's a second straight road game and I'll bank on the Steelers somehow keeping this close.

Rams (+4.5) over Eagles

I don't love nitpicking a 4-0 team but the Eagles just look a little bit off. They should have lost last week to Washington, and probably would have if the Commanders went for two and the win at the end of regulation. The Rams are going to be a tough out all season, which few of us saw coming.

Cardinals (+3) over Bengals

I simply don't know what anyone has seen in Cincinnati to make the Bengals a full field goal favorite on the road. They've been bad and I'm not sure it's going to be fixed easily. In yards per play differential (a good tool in assessing the strength of a team), the Bengals rank dead last in the NFL. Maybe the Bengals will turn it on suddenly and look like a Super Bowl contender again, but I need to see it first. This line seems like a gift.

Jets (+1.5) over Broncos

I get the Jets have their offensive issues, and two good quarters from Zach Wilson doesn't mean everything is fixed. But underdogs against the Broncos? What has Denver done to deserve to be favored against anyone but the Bears?

Vikings (+4) over Chiefs

I think the Vikings are better than their record, which is funny after a year of "the Vikings are absolutely not as good as their record." Regression is a real thing. Minnesota can move the ball, and I think they're a fine home dog here.

Packers (-1) over Raiders

Week 1 threw us off. We thought the Raiders might be OK and the Broncos would be bad. Well, it turns out the Raiders are really bad and the Broncos are somehow worse. The Packers are coming off a horrid outing against the Lions, but Detroit is miles better than Las Vegas (in terms of their football teams at least).

Last week: 10-6

Season to date: 35-27-2