The Daily Sweat: Commanders vs. Bears has a curious point spread
Let's do some math before betting on the Thursday night game. We started showing our work last week.
The Denver Broncos were 3.5-point favorites at the Chicago Bears last week. Any remotely reputable NFL power ranking will have the Bears No. 32 and the Broncos will be No. 31 or close. If you assume 2.5 points for home-field advantage, that means the Broncos would have been favored by about 8.5 points if last week's game was at Denver. The Bears lost to the Broncos last week 31-28, but still covered after blowing a 28-7 lead.
Now, let's add the Thursday night variable to the equation.
The Washington Commanders, a much better team than the Broncos who already won a game this season at Denver, are 6.5-point home favorites at BetMGM over the Bears. That's two or more points less than a hypothetical Bears at Broncos line last week. The math doesn't add up. At least it's better than earlier this week when Washington was favored by just 5.5.
The line really doesn't make much sense. Justin Fields looked better last week, but that came against a bad Broncos defense. He didn't look good enough to justify the oddsmakers moving the Bears' rating in any significant way. Chicago is still a bad team with a confusing offensive plan and a defense that has given up at least 25 points in each game of their 14-game losing streak.
The Commanders are not a great team and not one that should be favored by more than a touchdown against anyone, but nobody would dispute that the Bears are a bad team. It's not the best Thursday night matchup for sure, but the math tells you that Washington is probably the better side for betting purposes.
Here's the rest of the sports betting slate for Thursday:
Props for Thursday night
Unfortunately for some of my fantasy teams, Jahan Dotson is off to a slow start this season. He hasn't had more than 40 yards in a game this season. I'll take the under on his total of 42.5 receiving yards on Thursday night.
I'll stay on the under train and take the under for Cole Kmet's 32.5 yards. The Commanders have allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends of any defense this season, and even though Kmet had a nice game last week, it's hard to trust anyone in the Bears' passing game.
A couple of college football games
In the normal Thursday night counter-programming, there are two college football games. In the first one, Liberty is a 21.5-point favorite against Sam Houston. In the second game, Western Kentucky is a 6-point road favorite against Louisiana Tech. Maybe one of those games will be a decent viewing option if the NFL game is not.
No baseball?
Weirdly enough, there is not a single Game 3 in the wild-card round. All four teams that won Game 1 ended up sweeping in Game 2, which means there are no MLB playoff games Thursday. All four division series start Saturday.
What's the best bet?
It's hard to get away from the Commanders. The Bears are a really bad team, and if you take an underdog and the points, you want to have the belief that team can win straight up. I don't believe Chicago is good enough right now to beat anyone, especially on the road. I'll take Washington laying less than a touchdown.
