NFL.com explains why Trevor Lawrence should be most productive rookie QB of 2021
With the Jacksonville Jaguars taking him first overall, there is little doubt that Trevor Lawrence will start Week 1 for the team. There is also little doubt that he won’t lead all rookie quarterbacks in production as a result.
NFL Network Analytics Expert, Cynthia Freelund, is among many who believes Lawrence has what it takes to have a productive rookie season and ranked him first in her projections for rookie quarterback production. A big reason for that was the ability he showed from the pocket (whether pressured or not), something the Jags have lacked for some time.
Next Gen Stats shows that last season, Jaguars passers threw 14 interceptions when not under pressure, which was the second-most in the NFL (only Philadelphia threw more). Since 2018, Lawrence has thrown 68 touchdowns when kept clean, the second-most in the FBS over that time period (per Pro Football Focus), against just 13 interceptions. That said, performance when not under pressure helps determine what a passer is like under the most ideal circumstances — performance under pressure, on the other hand, helps show what they’re likely to experience as a pro. In this class, Lawrence is the only QB who has played 200 snaps against the blitz over the past three seasons, and PFF graded him above 90 on such passes. My computer vision shows that the No. 1 overall pick threw a lot of quick passes (such as screens) in college. In terms of getting his feet and hips set quickly when making these quick throws, he ranks in the top 2 percent of my eight-season sample (that is to say, based on the percentage of quick passes where a QB’s base was set in 1.5 seconds or less). In my sample, QBs who entered the NFL with the ability to maintain a stable base also mastered the quick-passing game at the pro level more quickly — and at this point, we can expect Lawrence to follow suit. As far as fantasy football is concerned, Lawrence is my 16th-ranked quarterback for 2021, meaning that while he has the opportunity to change Jacksonville’s future, pump the brakes on over-drafting him this season.
When looking at the other quarterback situations in the league, Lawrence’s percentage is the highest to start Week 1. The probability also looks high for Zach Wilson to start Week 1, too, for the New York Jets when looking at their roster.
As we’ve previously expressed (just like CBS Sports) Lawrence appears to have a better supporting cast around him than Wilson, which could make things difficult for the former BYU start to outshine Lawrence as a rookie. Additionally, Wilson’s ability to stay healthy in college was somewhat of a concern, so that could be a notable variable to consider as he makes the step to the NFL.
As for Lawrence, he will be walking into a situation with an experienced play-caller in Darrell Bevell who helped Russell Wilson have a lot of success at the beginning of his career. Having a top-5 rusher in James Robinson and former Clemson teammate Travis Etienne certainly won’t hurt either, neither will having threats like DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault, and Marvin Jones at receiver.
