NFL coaching hot seat index: Who's feeling some heat heading into training camp?

NFL head coaches lose their jobs every year. Sometimes it's in the middle of the season, sometimes it’s near the end, and sometimes it's after the season ends. That means there are a number of coaches facing pressure as they head into 2023 training camps.

Some have had multiple poor seasons that could lead to their firing at any moment, and others could be on the outs with management after they’ve plateaued or failed to succeed with good rosters. Here, we’ll look at eight coaches who are entering this season on the hot seat, and take a quick temperature check — on a scale of one to five, with five being the hottest — before their respective clubs open up training camp.

Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers

Staley’s seat got considerably hotter after the 2022 season when the Chargers blew a 27-0 lead and lost in the AFC wild-card round. Despite an incredibly talented offense led by Justin Herbert, Los Angeles hasn’t won a playoff game in Staley’s two seasons. Even worse, the defense finished 26th in DVOA in 2021 and just 16th last season. He’ll likely get one more go-around with effectively the same team, but with the addition of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and first-round wide receiver Quentin Johnston. A playoff appearance should be the bare minimum.

Seat warmth: 🔥🔥🔥

Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns

Stefanski likely got a mulligan for the 2022 season. The Browns had just traded for Deshaun Watson, didn’t have him for 11 games while he served a suspension, and went 7-10 on the year. That leniency shouldn’t apply in 2023, though. Cleveland not only has Watson for (conceivably) a full slate of games, but also added to the offense when it traded for former New York Jets receiver Elijah Moore. Stefanski will face stiff competition in the AFC North, but at some point, upper management will want to see improvement. The Browns have lost more games every year since Stefanski went 11-5 and won a playoff game in his first season.

Seat warmth: 🔥🔥🔥🔥

Josh McDaniels, Las Vegas Raiders

McDaniels needs this year to work. He and general manager Dave Ziegler swapped quarterback Derek Carr for Jimmy Garroppolo, traded away tight end Darren Waller and might not have running back Josh Jacobs, who reportedly will hold out rather than sign the franchise tag. Receiver Davante Adams is still here and the team added pass rusher Tyree Wilson, but McDaniels likely needs a playoff push to save his job or risk flopping as a head coach for a second time.

Seat warmth: 🔥🔥🔥🔥

Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans

Vrabel appeared to win the power struggle between himself and ex-GM Jon Robinson, but now heads into uncertain waters with a shaky roster and the resurgent Jacksonville Jaguars in his division. The addition of receiver DeAndre Hopkins is huge for the offense, but that doesn’t change the fact Tennessee squandered its division lead with a seven-game losing streak to end the 2022 season. Vrabel is a good coach, but questions will arise without a rebound this season.

Seat warmth: 🔥🔥🔥

Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys

The head coach of the Cowboys is always on the hot seat, especially if he was just handed the keys to running the offense like McCarthy was this year. Dallas has made the playoffs in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2007 the past two years, and a return trip to the divisional round is likely the minimum expectation for them. That doesn’t mean anything short leads to McCarthy’s exit, but it certainly doesn't mean he’s safe, either. His security will hinge in part on the success of this season in his first at as the team’s primary play-caller.

Seat warmth: 🔥🔥

Bill Belichick, New England Patriots

Despite a report that Belichick’s job security has had “different levels of warmth since 2019,” there is likely no way the Patriots sack the architect of the franchise’s six Super Bowl titles and 20-year dynasty simply because of a few mediocre seasons. A reckoning will surely come, but it’s not like the Patriots have been awful since Tom Brady left. They’ve won at least seven games each season since 2020 — something certain teams would love to be able to claim. Belichick’s time in the NFL will end, but likely on his own terms.

Seat warmth: 🔥

Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bowles heads into his second season as the Buccaneers’ head coach but it’ll be his first without Tom Brady. That’s a scary situation for anyone, but even more so for Bowles considering Tampa Bay didn’t even have a winning record in Bowles’ first year and last with Brady; they made the playoffs because of a weak division but were blown out by the Cowboys. The defense is still solid, but the offense is a mess with no clear post-Brady path. Bowles may not need to win a ton of games, but he needs to show the team can remain competitive even without a good quarterback.

Seat warmth: 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

Ron Rivera, Washington Commanders

This is purely about new franchise ownership. Rivera is a quality coach who has navigated some tumultuous waters during his three years in Washington. But the Commanders have never had a winning record with him at the helm. That might mean something to the new owners, who could look to install someone they believe in if Rivera doesn’t show improvement this year.

Seat warmth: 🔥🔥