NFL betting: The win total bet getting the most action is ... the over on the Lions?
If it weren't for the Houston Texans, the Detroit Lions would be at the bottom of the NFL barrel. At least in the eyes of oddsmakers.
The Lions have the second-lowest win total for the NFL season, at five. Not much is expected from them, in the middle of a rebuild as Dan Campbell takes over as head coach.
There's not much excitement for the Lions this season. That's why it is surprising that the most-bet season win total is the Lions over 5. More than 80% of the money coming in on the Lions win total are on the over.
There's an explanation for that.
Lions are most-bet over
BetMGM reported its highest-bet overs and its highest-bet unders. There are a few surprises, none more than that Lions over:
Most bet overs
Lions over 5
Broncos over 8.5
Eagles over 6.5
Most bet unders
Steelers under 8.5
Jaguars under 6.5
Jets under 6
Why the Lions? Well, it's becoming apparent that Michigan fans are loyal, maybe to a fault. Many bet percentages for various bets on the Lions, Tigers, Pistons and Red Wings are higher than you'd expect. Of all the money bet on the Lions' win total, 84% is on the over and according to John Ewing of BetMGM, more than 90% of the bets on the Lions win total come from Michigan.
Those folks on the over are surely betting with their hearts. But that doesn't mean they can't cash the ticket.
Lions might be underrated
It's possible the Lions are underrated coming into the season.
Simply getting rid of Matt Patricia probably helps. We don't know if Campbell was the right choice, but he can't be any worse. The Lions traded quarterbacks, sending Matthew Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams for Jared Goff. While that's a downgrade, maybe it's not quite as severe a downgrade as everyone believes.
The Lions have built up both lines, and perhaps they can keep some games close. In a 17-game season, going 6-11 isn't that high of a bar. On the other side, it doesn't seem like the Lions are 4-13 bad. The Lions do have the fourth-hardest schedule in the NFL based on projected win totals, according to NFL analyst Warren Sharp, which doesn't help over bettors. But winning five games to push or six to win isn't that hard.
The Lions probably won't contend for a playoff spot at any point, but that's OK. They won't need to be great for a lot of Michigan bettors to be happy at the end of the season.
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