NFL betting: Good luck, Houston! Take this season-long under bet
The Houston Texans won just three games last year. They now have a new head coach, new offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator and a rookie quarterback in C.J. Stroud.
With a season win total at 6.5, the Texans are certainly expected to struggle again this year. However, I’m not interested in what Stroud can potentially do to improve this offense. Instead, I’m looking at the run game ... or maybe squinting with my hand over my brows is a better description.
Bet: Dameon Pierce under 900.5 total rushing yards (-110)
Pierce was a mixed bag last season. He was sixth in the league for opportunity share but ranked 47th for both true yards per carry and yards per touch. Plus, he finished 37th in rushing DVOA among 42 qualifying running backs and 35th in success rate.
In retrospect, his 139 rushing yards against the Philadelphia Eagles was a blessing. It was only his second 100-yard game of the season.
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Here’s the problem. The offensive line was terrible and it doesn’t look like it could be much better this season. Houston ranked 31st in adjusted line yards (how the O-line assists in rushing yards separate from the running back) and 27th in run block win rate.
The Texans drafted Penn State center Juice Scruggs in the second round, but without making impactful changes to the line, Houston is projected to face the ninth-toughest schedule of opposing rushing defenses.
Strength of schedule
Out of the gate, in the first four games of the season, Houston will face Baltimore, Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Pittsburgh. All four teams were top 10 for yards per rush attempt allowed. The Texans will then close the season in the final four games, facing Tennessee twice (No. 1 for opponent YPRA) and Indianapolis again in the final game (No. 6). When is there an opportunity for Pierce to find a groove? He'll be facing No. 5 Cincinnati in Week 10, Jacksonville again in Week 12 and the Jets (No. 10) in Week 14. There is no time.
This schedule with a rookie quarterback and a faulty offensive line just doesn't work. It is one of the biggest shifts in opponent strength from last year, after the Texans faced the eighth-easiest schedule of opponent rush defense for yards per rush attempt.
Additional Texans betting tips
Considering the offensive line doesn't look to be much improved, especially in the early weeks, I would be looking to Stroud under passing props, interceptions thrown props and total sacks props.
This could definitely be a team where you consider taking UNDERs — points scored, receiving yards ... you name it, you could probably wager it. Good luck, Texans.
