Ready or not, rule changes are coming to MLB

Jul. 17—Baseball is a game steeped in tradition, but whether fans like it or not, change is on the horizon.

Recent years have already brought a number of developments that might have seemed unthinkable not long ago. The sport has adopted instant replay and the universal designated hitter, and in the coming years it's all but a foregone conclusion we will see the implementation of a pitch clock, a ban on shifts and even the use of computer technology to call balls and strikes.

MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred has pushed for the changes in large part to improve the sport's pace of play and to help facilitate a more engaging and exciting game. In a recent profile by ESPN's Don Van Natta, he pitched the moves less as "changes" and more as a "restoration" to the way baseball was played back in the 1970s and 1980s before advanced metrics caught on and transformed the sport.

Now, as part of baseball's new Collective Bargaining Agreement, MLB has the power to pass new rule changes with only 45 days notice, meaning some of the most talked about changes will almost definitely be in place by the start of next season.

So what should fans expect, and what might the specific rule changes look like? Here's a rundown of what's been proposed, what's being tested and what the results have looked like in the minor leagues.

Pitch clock

The most likely rule change to take effect next season is the implementation of a pitch clock. Similar in concept to a shot clock in basketball, the pitch clock would give a pitcher 14 seconds to deliver the next pitch with no runners on base and 18-19 seconds with runners on.

The idea is to reduce the amount of downtime between pitches and ultimately streamline the game, and the results in the minor leagues have been eye-opening.

In mid-June the league announced that the pitch clock had shortened games by an average of 29 minutes, and that minor league games were taking an average of two hours, 35 minutes compared to 3:04 the year before. Generally speaking scoring averages have held steady as well, suggesting the change has hit MLB's preferred sweet spot of condensing more action into shorter games.

Last season the average big league game took around 3:10, so it should be a safe bet we'll see the pitch clock in the majors by the start of 2023.

Ban on shifts

As analytics and advanced defensive alignments have become more widespread, balls that might have once gotten through for base hits are now being gobbled up by infielders and turned into outs. That has depressed batting averages across the sport, and to combat the trend MLB is exploring the possibility of banning the shift.

The general idea is that at least two infielders would have to remain on each side of second base and couldn't stand deeper than the edge of the outfield grass. It's a good idea in theory, but in practice the rule hasn't produced dramatic results in the minors because infielders can still play a less pronounced shift directly next to the second base bag.

But an article this past week by Jayson Stark of The Athletic laid out a more dramatic proposal that will soon be tested in the Low-A Florida State League. The new proposal would introduce what Stark called a "pie-slice" rule, which would create a pie-shaped restricted area behind second base that infielders couldn't stand in before a ball is put in play. If an infielder wanted to stand next to second they still could, but much shallower than currently allowed. If they wanted to stand deeper, the new chalk lines would push them away from the middle and closer to left or right field, in theory making it easier for a batter to get a base hit up the middle.

It's a similar concept to the NHL's goalie trapezoid and the NBA's restricted area around the basket, and MLB officials will no doubt be following the Florida State League closely to see if the rule produces the hoped for results.

Larger bases

In 1982 Rickey Henderson led baseball with 130 stolen bases and 25 players league-wide finished with 30 or more. Last season just six players topped 30 stolen bases, and only 26 even had more than 15. Nobody has stolen more than 50 bases since 2017.

That's a dramatic drop-off, so in order to help boost stolen base totals MLB is planning on increasing the size of the bases from 15 to 18 inches square. In addition, Stark also reported earlier this year that MLB is considering moving second base in slightly, which would correct a little noticed quirk in the diamond's setup where second base has long been out of alignment with the first and third base bags.

Combined with the larger bags the move would decrease the distance between each base by a little more than a foot, which the league hopes will encourage more base stealing. The larger bags would also promoting player safety by reducing the likelihood of collisions on the base paths.

"Robot Umpires"

This won't reach the big leagues until 2024 at the earliest, but Manfred has indicated that the automated ball-strike zone system — colloquially known as "robot umpires" — is on its way.

Multiple versions of the system are currently being tested. One version would have an automated strike zone similar to the one seen by viewers on TV broadcasts determine balls and strikes and relay the call to the home plate umpire via an ear piece. Another version would introduce a challenge system so managers could appeal to the automated system on calls they don't like.

In addition to eliminating the need for bickering between players, managers and the umpires, MLB says the automated system has also helped improve pace of play.

Expansion to 32 teams?

Not a rule change exactly, but in the ESPN profile Manfred indicated that expansion is likely coming to MLB.

"I would love to get to 32 teams," Manfred said.

MLB last expanded in 1998 when it added the Tampa Bay Rays and Arizona Diamondbacks, and adding two new clubs would bring the league in line with the NFL, which expanded to 32 teams 20 years ago, and the NHL, which recently added the Vegas Golden Knights and Seattle Kraken to reach the mark.

Before any expansion occurs the league will likely need to resolve the Oakland Athletics and Tampa Bay Rays stadium situations, but once that is done MLB would have good reason to move quickly given the billions of dollars in expansion fees the additions could generate. Some cities discussed as possible expansion or relocation destinations in recent months include Las Vegas, Nashville, Montreal and Charlotte, North Carolina, among other places.

Besides increasing the number of teams, expansion would also likely result in a divisional realignment. Currently the American and National Leagues each have three divisions with five teams each. With 32 teams the league would most likely switch to either an NFL-style model with four divisions of four teams in each league, or an NHL model with two larger divisions of eight teams in each league.

Either one would more neatly fit with MLB's new expanded postseason format, which features six teams in each league.

Email: mcerullo@northofboston.com. Twitter: @MacCerullo.