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NBA series betting: Are Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving enough to overcome the Celtics?

greg brainos
·3 min read
2

Perception isn't reality. The Brooklyn Nets opening the season as +225 favorites on BetMGM to win the NBA title was perception, but the reality is that they're a 7-seed who's favored to get knocked out of the first round of the playoffs. That reality has provided us with the opportunity to take Kevin Durant at plus money. The value is too good to pass up. At least, that's the perception held by many bettors. The reality? Boston has more than enough kryptonite to defeat Brooklyn's two-thirds of a superteam.

What can Brown do for you?

The Nets dispatched the Celtics 4-1 in the first round of the playoffs last year, but that was with sharpshooter Joe Harris, who's out for the season, and James Harden, who was recently shipped to Philly in an oversized container. More importantly, Boston was denied the services of an injured Jaylen Brown.

Brown has played in four postseasons for the Celtics, advancing to the Eastern Conference finals in three of them. When they drafted the young phenom, Boston hadn't made it out of the first round in five years. With Brown in the lineup, they're a perfect 4 for 4 in the opening round, sporting a record of 16-5.

Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant led the Nets to a 4-1 win over the Celtics in the first round of last year's playoffs. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)

No sleep for Brooklyn

Do you like apples? Well, the Celtics have had the Nets' number this season. How do you like them apples? Boston is 3-1 versus Brooklyn, including a win in the only contest in which Durant and Kyrie Irving both played.

The Celtics are a downright terrible matchup for Brooklyn's ISO-heavy style of play. Boston ranks first in defensive efficiency, thanks to a roster loaded with versatile defenders. Defensive player of the year favorite Marcus Smart gets most of the limelight, but four of the top 12 defensive player ratings in the NBA this season belong to Celtics: Al Horford (2nd), Jayson Tatum (6th), Smart (10th), and Brown (12th).

They're also better on offense. Tatum's 54-point performance against the Nets the last time they met can attest to that. Boston ranks sixth in offensive efficiency, compared to 13th for Brooklyn. It took just over half the season for first-year coach Ime Udoka to work out the Celtics' kinks, but a 26-6 finish showed us how dangerous this team is. When their shots aren't falling, their stellar defense keeps them in games. When their shots are falling, a bucket full of four-leaf clovers couldn't save you.

Nets coach Steve Nash has a problem when it comes to personnel in this series, and that's not even considering the issue of whether Ben Simmons will be available to suit up at some point. Andre Drummond is Brooklyn's starting center, but he's such an enormous defensive liability against the Celtics that Nash may be better off limiting his time on the court, which would, in turn, shorten the Nets' already thin bench. Durant and Irving will have to log some serious minutes in this series against a tenacious defense. They're both incredible players, but there isn't enough talent around them to help out.

Even if defensive stalwart Robert Williams doesn't return, the Celtics pose a Jay-Z level of problems for the Nets. I'm confident in Udoka's ability to make the right adjustments when needed, and I have no problem laying the -140 on Boston to win the series.

Stats provided by Basketball Reference, teamrankings.com, StatMuse, and nba.com.