NBA playoffs primer: James Harden has reputation to shake; Nets' Ben Simmons dilemma
The offseason was short (again). The regular season drama was high (also again). And LeBron James missed the playoffs for only the fourth time in his 19-year career.
Welcome to the 2021-22 NBA postseason.
As the first round begins Saturday, there are storylines aplenty as 16 teams vie for the Larry O'Brien Trophy over the next two months. Here are five things to keep an eye on.
Can James Harden shake his playoff demons?
No bigger spotlight shines on a player in the coming weeks than Harden. It’s hard to tell if he has more to gain than to lose, but the weight is heavy — for himself and the Philadelphia 76ers.
Harden’s play from the last two months has come into focus, but he’s been on a slide for years. Expecting him to be the system he was when toppling streaks of consecutive 30-point games three years ago will leave anyone disappointed.
Too many miles, hard minutes and long nights to call him anything but an old 32-year-old. If Harden held up his end of the bargain, Joel Embiid could’ve been a lock for MVP, but falling to the fourth seed erased Embiid from voters’ minds.
The 76ers rebuffed consummating Ben Simmons-centered deals for the likes of NOLA-bound CJ McCollum because Daryl Morey was forsaking all others for Harden, believing he was the perfect match for Embiid.
Perhaps Harden bought into that, too, because he certainly aided in the dysfunction that led to the blockbuster trade with the Brooklyn Nets. Nobody in Brooklyn is immune from the nonsense that permeated through the season, and all have anvil-like pressure headed into the weekend.
And there is the matter of a $200 million deal Harden likely expects to get this offseason, but an underwhelming playoff will make a contract harder to offer by 76ers ownership.
Unlike Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, Harden has no shining moment in the Finals and his playoff moments have been full of stinkers. Morey crowning him as the greatest offensive player in NBA history hasn’t been backed up when the games count the most, and if things are headed downhill, Harden won’t pull the nose up.
Whether it's fatigue or just being a plain, ol' choke artist, Harden could be the least reliable historic player in this setting (the numbers are ghastly). Many are counting on the Toronto Raptors to do more than give the 76ers a run for their money in the first round, and with 76ers defensive wizard Matisse Thybulle being ineligible for games in Toronto due to his vaccination status, more pressure shifts to Harden.
He claims he doesn’t feel it, but often plays like he can’t summon greatness. His play will determine plenty of futures in Philadelphia.
Who gets lucky?
Good fortunes are part of every championship run, with very few exceptions. Phoenix and Milwaukee could very well be on a collision course to meet again this June, but some breaks were certainly caught along the way that both sides will want to quiet.
Durant’s feet, Kawhi Leonard’s knee, Irving’s ankle and Anthony Davis’ Operation-like body all had a say in the road to the Finals — incidents neither team should have to defend or explain in the wake.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has been stamped and certified by his play in critical moments last season, and even he was aware how the slightest twitch could’ve turned things.
Again, no apologies.
Phoenix has bucked every roadblock — Chris Paul’s injury, Deandre Ayton’s contract — to run away with the NBA’s best record, buoyed by heartbreak and wanting to avoid the cruel twist of luck that turned against them in the Finals.
The Suns have matured and expect to be there at the end. It wasn’t so much they were just happy to get to the Finals — not with the hard-driving Paul leading the way, no way — but there’s an expectation to be one of the last two teams standing this season.
Milwaukee had enough strokes of bad luck during Antetokounmpo’s two MVP runs, it felt due for some things to go its way. But, the Bucks are staring down the barrel of a Brooklyn/Boston winner in Round 2.
That doesn’t feel like Lady Luck smiling on them, even if Giannis has a case for the baddest man on the planet.
But she’ll smile on someone in the next few months, courtesy of someone else’s frowns. It’s just a matter of who’s ready to take advantage in a league where the margins are thin and opportunities are thinner.
Jimmy Butler and Heat culture
Nobody does demonstrative drama like Jimmy Butler, and hardly anyone can smolder such fire like the Miami Heat.
The confrontation between Butler and Udonis Haslem and coach Erik Spoelstra had many taking bets on who’d win in a wrestling match, but the noise dissipated as quickly as it showed up on our Twitter screens. It doesn’t mean, though, there aren’t whispers of underlying issues that need to be rectified. They just aren’t as bothered by discomfort the way other franchises are — not to say they thrive on it, but no one goes out of their way to make laughs from awkward silence.
There are far more important things to worry about, as the Heat largely flew undetected in a revamped East, regathering themselves and winning the conference comfortably. In the wilderness, you can hear whispers calling the Heat’s run to the 2020 Finals “bubblicious,” similar to the champion Lakers’ triumph.
Getting swept in the first round last year to the eventual champion Bucks seemed to give detractors a measure of confirmation as opposed to the grace some gave the Lakers’ injury-riddled campaign.
But the Heat have made themselves into the deepest team in the East to compensate for a lack of a supernova. Butler doesn’t have an invisible enemy to give him the extra petroleum, armed with a contract extension and playmates who understand his ethos. Does he need more fuel than the average? There’s no better motivation than to quiet the ones who believe his leadership in 2020 was a fluke, even as he’s put up two All-NBA seasons after.
Their road to June isn’t the bloodbath it could be, but it won’t be easy. And given the construction of the conference, this could be Miami’s — and Butler’s — last best chance at another ring on the shores of Biscayne Bay.
We can’t turn injuries off
It’s an unfortunate fact of sports, and it affects every season and postseason without exception. The Denver Nuggets’ misfortune feels like rollover cellphone minutes, with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr.’s injuries robbing them of a year in a finite championship window.
And the two biggest health questions came from players with MVP cases at opposite ends of the season: Stephen Curry and Luka Doncic.
Curry, who felt like a surefire MVP in the season’s first month (28.6 points, 6.8 assists, 5.6 rebounds the first 19 games) is apparently on track to return from an ankle injury in the playoff opener this weekend after missing a month. Doncic, who shed weight and gained elite status in the second half of the season (31.9 points, 9.4 rebounds, 8.6 assists after Feb. 1) while helping Dallas surge to a home-court spot in the first round, doesn’t seem likely to have the same fortune as Curry with a calf injury he suffered on the season’s final day.
The Warriors haven’t been whole all season, and the belief they could call on championship equity has largely subsided.
Shall we even call them underdogs, or at the least, overlooked in the grand scheme?
Draymond Green believes the Warriors are feared and will reclaim that status soon enough, but it’ll probably be more difficult than he says. And “scare” isn’t a word the Nuggets have in their vocabulary — ask Nikola Jokic’s brothers if you’re unsure.
As for Doncic, seeing him in a playoff series without Leonard and Paul George opposite him felt like a recipe for torching some poor sap while aided by a pretty stout defense.
The Utah Jazz have trouble defending the perimeter on a good day, so putting arguably the league’s best in that category felt like a tailor-made trip to the second round, at least. But if Doncic is a diminished version of himself, it’s hard to see Dallas mustering enough offense to get by the Jazz.
The playoffs won’t be lessened by these injuries in particular, just more fabric of an ever-evolving story that seems to feature it every year.
Eye-rolling one minute, spellbinding the next
Every day it seems to be a new storyline with the drama-filled Brooklyn Nets — so much so, soap opera writers were likely taking notes because some of this stuff is just too improbable to believe.
Now, it’s Simmons, who hasn’t played a minute all season but could be ramping up to debut in the Nets’ first-round slobberknocker against the Boston Celtics. It doesn’t seem like a smart play, putting a player on the floor at the game’s highest intensity when he hasn’t been in the regular season cauldron.
But watching Durant and Irving work their magic, it’s understandable to ponder the possibilities of adding Simmons to the mix. It took more than the normal performances from the duo to get by the young Cleveland Cavaliers in the play-in, the Nets unable to sustain efforts to keep Cleveland at bay until the final minute or so. It is a reminder that for all the shine the Nets possess, there are some things lacking underneath the hood.
And given the way the Nets have approached the awkward season — Irving out one minute, Harden then out the next — it would seem like a mockery to the basketball gods that the Nets could emerge from a dangerous East.
Someone could, and likely would, make the case that the devalued regular season would matter even less if the Nets make it out. The 82-game marathon is supposed to sharpen and harden teams, but it’s hard to say the Nets have developed championship habits or treated the exercise with the requisite seriousness winners traditionally employ.
Hence, why a playoff run would look pretty undeniable if they pulled it off — beating a Boston team that’s bludgeoned the league for the last few months, then possibly exacting revenge against the champion Bucks in Round 2 before maybe meeting Miami in the conference finals.
For what wasn’t earned in the regular season could be gained in the playoffs, should it happen. But who’s betting on a thin defense, a thin rotation and no connective tissue from the principle figures? Someone who’s not willing to bet against a healthy Kevin Durant, that’s who.
More Yahoo Sports NBA playoff previews:
(2) Boston Celtics vs. (7) Brooklyn Nets
(3) Milwaukee Bucks vs. (6) Chicago Bulls
(4) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (5) Toronto Raptors
(2) Memphis Grizzlies vs. (7) Minnesota Timberwolves
(3) Golden State Warriors vs. (6) Denver Nuggets
(4) Dallas Mavericks vs. (5) Utah Jazz
2021-22 NBA postseason schedule: Full first-round slate, TV info, bracket, odds
