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NBA Playoff Picture: Could Raptors sneak in as Celtics' first-round matchup?

darren hartwell
·3 min read
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NBA Playoff Picture: Could Raptors sneak in as Celtics' R1 matchup? originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

The Eastern Conference playoff picture got a whole lot clearer over the weekend.

The Boston Celtics technically still can overtake the Milwaukee Bucks for the No. 1 seed in the East with four games remaining in the regular season. But after Milwaukee's win over the 76ers on Sunday, the Celtics' most likely fate is the No. 2 seed, with the Miami Heat slated as their most likely first-round opponent -- for now.

Here's a look at East standings entering Monday's games, followed by the Celtics' and Bucks' remaining opponents:

Eastern Conference Standings (as of April 3)

  1. Milwaukee Bucks (56-22)

  2. Boston Celtics (54-24) -- 2.0 games back

  3. Philadelphia 76ers (51-27) -- 5.0 GB

  4. Cleveland Cavaliers (49-30) -- 7.5 GB

  5. New York Knicks (46-33) -- 10.5 GB

  6. Brooklyn Nets (43-35) -- 13.0 GB

  7. Miami Heat (41-37) -- 15.0 GB

  8. Atlanta Hawks (39-39) -- 17.0 GB

  9. Toronto Raptors (39-39) -- 17.0 GB

  10. Chicago Bulls (38-40) -- 18.0 GB

Celtics' remaining opponents

  • at Sixers, vs. Raptors, vs. Raptors, vs. Hawks

Bucks' remaining opponents

  • at Wizards, vs. Bulls, vs. Grizzlies, at Raptors

The Celtics can clinch the No. 2 seed with a win over Philadelphia on Tuesday night, and even if they lose that game, they'd need just two more wins or one Sixers loss to wrap up the second seed.

If Boston wants the No. 1 seed, however, it needs to win out and have Milwaukee go 2-2 down the stretch, which seems unlikely unless the Bucks rest their starters.

As the No. 2 seed, the Celtics would play the winner of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 matchup in the East play-in tournament. Miami has an 88.8 percent chance of hosting that game as the No. 7 seed, per Basketball Reference's Playoff Probabilities Report, with Atlanta and Toronto as its two most likely opponents.

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Here's how Miami has fared against the Hawks and Raptors this season:

  • vs. Hawks (3-1): 106-98 win, 121-113 loss, 117-109 win, 130-128 win

  • vs. Raptors (1-3): 112-99 win, 98-90 loss, 112-104 loss, 106-92 loss

The Heat have the fifth-best home record in the East and have Atlanta's number, so they'd be heavily favored to advance in that play-in matchup. But if the Raptors pass the Hawks to earn the No. 8 seed, they've given Miami fits this season and potentially could upset the Heat in the play-in game to draw the Celtics as the No. 7 seed.

An interesting wrinkle on that front is that Boston faces Toronto twice this week. So, if the C's were motivated to avoid an East Finals rematch in the first round and already had the No. 2 seed locked up, perhaps they'd be more inclined to rest players in those Raptors matchups if the result was Toronto landing the No. 8 seed.

Then again, the Celtics have the NBA's second-best record and likely won't concern itself with trying to avoid certain opponents in Round 1.