NBA betting preview: Our favorite win total bets as teams tank for Victor Wembanyama
The NBA regular season is too long. Once the term "load management" entered the vernacular, it became difficult to bet the over on any regular season win totals.
This season brings a different challenge in win total betting, with multiple teams expected to start tanking early with uber-prospect Victor Wembanyama looming in the 2023 NBA draft.
With the NBA regular season starting Tuesday, our Yahoo Sportsbook team took a shot at identifying our favorite win total bets (we already tackled MVP best bets and our picks for Rookie of the Year and other awards):
GREG BRAINOS: Victor Wembanyama under the tutelage of Gregg Popovich has the potential to be more gamebreaking than starting with unlimited red shells in Mario Kart. Pop wants (and deserves) him and even warned against betting on the Spurs this year. The only way they could be tanking any harder is if Michael Dukakis was in the rotation. San Antonio’s roster is easily the worst in the league and I expect them to move some more starters before the trade deadline. They have 17-win team written all over them, so I love under 22.5 wins.
I’ll keep it in the West for my favorite over, which is the Denver Nuggets (51.5). How many wins are Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown worth? I’m guessing it’s more than four, even when factoring in the subtraction of Will Barton and Monte Morris. We know how well the Nuggets play at home; if they can stay healthy, this may be the top seed in the West (+650).
NICK BROMBERG: The Kings at over 34.5 feels like free money given the number of teams that are trying to be competitive in the West. With OKC, Houston and San Antonio not looking to be competitive and the Kings positioning themselves for a play-in spot, Sacramento can get to 35 wins. I like over 29.5 wins for a Pistons team that could also challenge the 35-win mark (but not the play-in tournament in a loaded East) and under 42.5 wins for a Bulls team that is really going to miss Lonzo Ball. I also don’t want to bet against LeBron James, but under 44.5 for the Lakers feels right with their current roster construction.
FRANK SCHWAB: Tanking happens in the NBA, and as Greg and Nick alluded to, it might get out of control this season with the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes on everyone's mind. That’s why I don’t mind unders on some teams that could embrace the tank: Indiana Pacers (24.5), Oklahoma City Thunder (23.5), San Antonio Spurs (22.5). The Pacers are my favorite in that group; established vets Myles Turner and Buddy Hield seem like locks to be traded during the season.
On the other side, I do like the Detroit Pistons over 29.5. The Pistons kept covering the spread down the stretch last season and I like the additions of Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren. Also like the overs on the Atlanta Hawks (46.5) and Cleveland Cavaliers (46.5) despite a lot of hype for the Cavs that pushed their number up a bit.
