Mussatto: Why patience might be OKC Thunder's best move at NBA trade deadline

This Thunder team is hard to parse, evolving so rapidly that just when we think we know who they are or what they’ll become, the picture changes. A new brush stroke here and a splatter there, young players popping and skill sets blending.

The painting has masterpiece potential, but it’s unfinished — needing to dry before Sam Presti steps back and decides what’s next. The Feb. 8 trade deadline is fast approaching, but the Thunder doesn’t have to act. Standing pat might be the prudent move.

Presti has used a paint metaphor of his own: You can’t buy paint for a house before you actually buy the house.

“You don't know where the house is,” Presti said in his preseason interview. “You don't know where it's situated. You don't know what style it is. You don't know how much paint you'll need.”

He last used the line in late September, when avoiding the play-in seemed to be the Thunder’s best-case outcome. Four months later, and the Thunder entered play Wednesday 32-15 — one game behind the first-place Timberwolves. The Thunder seems a lock for a top-four seed and the right to have home-court advantage in a first-round playoff series. OKC has the best point differential (+7.9) in the West and the No. 4 net rating in the NBA.

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It might seem like the Thunder operates in slow motion, but the three-plus seasons since the Thunder’s last playoff appearance has been a blur. Rebuilders don’t become contenders this fast.

We talk about teams going “all in” at the trade deadline, but that trope doesn’t apply to the Thunder, having just glanced at its hand.

The Thunder entered the season with the third-youngest roster (average age: 23 years, 43 days), only older than the stinky Spurs and hapless Hornets.

Only two teams this young, as ESPN’s Kevin Pelton wrote in a terrific analysis, have ever won more than 45 games. The 2009-10 Thunder (50-32) and the 2010-11 Thunder (55-27). These things don’t happen, at least not outside of Oklahoma City.

Given the Thunder’s storage unit of picks, an MVP candidate on its roster, the openness of the West and the uncertainty of the future, you can argue that the Thunder should act at the deadline. Do something aggressive. Make a splash. Presti isn’t afraid to take a home run swing. He’s done it before.

Here’s the counter: Why risk messing this up? An addition could subtract from the team’s chemistry. Who do you want to remove from the rotation or dock minutes from? If it’s Aaron Wiggins, the people will riot. Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are still developing.

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And here’s the big one: Are we sure we know what color paint the Thunder needs to buy? Is Sam Presti sure? Because if he’s not, then how can the rest of us be? I’m not saying Presti is infallible, but constructing two of the best young teams in NBA history in two eras makes me think he knows a tad more about his stuff than me or you. No offense.

It seems wise to trust Presti, trust Mark Daigneault, trust Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and his baby-faced sidekicks. Whatever they’re doing, it’s working.

I don’t think the Thunder is going to make a trade that sacrifices its financial flexibility when it’s time to pay the young guys. I don’t think the Thunder is going to trade Josh Giddey, at least not at the deadline. I don’t think … scratch that, I know the Thunder isn’t going to trade for Andre Drummond or someone similar who could help grab a few rebounds but who would wreck the Thunder’s offense.

I do think any of the Nets’ wings like Cameron Johnson, Dorian Finney-Smith or Royce O’Neale are sensible targets, but everybody following every contender thinks the same. And even if the Thunder thinks that, or has other names atop its wish list, that doesn’t mean those players are readily available. Most trade talks don’t end in a deal.

I don’t know what the Thunder will do, but Presti left us a 14-year-old clue.

The 2009-10 Thunder won 50 games after a 23-win season in 2008-09. This Thunder squad is on pace to win 50+ games after winning 40 a season ago and 24 the season before that. Not a perfect parallel, but both the 2009-10 and 2023-24 seasons look like Thunder breakout campaigns.

What did Presti do at the 2010 trade deadline? Nothing. He let the future MVP trio of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden marinate. The Thunder, as the No. 8 seed, lost a six-game series to the top-seeded Lakers. It was the team’s first playoff series.

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It wasn’t until the next season’s trade deadline, in February 2011, when Presti made his move — acquiring Kendrick Perkins from the Celtics for Jeff Green, Nenad Krstic and a future first-round pick. The deal was made only after it became evident what the Thunder needed and what it was up against in the West.

The Thunder made it all the way to the Western Conference Finals in 2011 and the NBA Finals in 2012. Perkins was the nasty presence the Thunder needed inside. The Thunder didn’t win big because of Perkins, but it won big with Perkins.

Fast forward to this season, a team that’s better than the 2010-11 Thunder, but one that’s poised to make its playoff debut. Sure, Gilgeous-Alexander and Lu Dort were on the Thunder’s 2019-20 playoff team in the bubble, but that was Chris Paul’s team.

My guess is that Presti lets this season play out, like he did in 2011. Maybe a move along the margin, but nothing big. Wait to see what this team does in the playoffs. See if they get knocked out in the first round, see if they make a run at the whole damn thing.

See where they lack, and pursue a player who could fill that void.

Then this summer, or at the next trade deadline, the painting might be ready for a finishing coat.

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Joe Mussatto is a sports columnist for The Oklahoman. Have a story idea for Joe? Email him at jmussatto@oklahoman.com. Support Joe's work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today at subscribe.oklahoman.com.

This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: OKC Thunder's best move at NBA trade deadline? Sam Presti's patience