How much is motion in Mike McCarthy’s plans for Cowboys’ 2023 offense?

Mike McCarthy’s offensive identity is a bit of a mystery heading into 2023. With Kellen Moore out of the picture, the Dallas Cowboys’ offense is now McCarthy’s.  Even though Brian Schottenheimer technically takes over the new offensive coordinator role, it will be McCarthy’s show to run with him taking over as chief play-caller.

There’s been much debate over the offseason as to what will change and what will stay the same in 2023. With McCarthy the play-caller, will there be more short passes as are traditional in a West Coast offense? Will there be more methodical drives designed to rest the defense? Will analytics finally have a noticeable role in play design like McCarthy suggested when he was first hired?

And if so, will Dallas finally embrace motion?

Offensive motion has become a cheat code in the NFL as of late. Play designers will use it for a variety of reasons:

• Identifying man/zone coverage

• To create defensive confusion

• To change blocking leverage

• Easier release for WRs

For years the smartest minds in the game have been using it to gain an edge over defenses. Motion has impacted both the running and passing game and remains a key element of many of the NFL’s top offenses.

Yet, the Cowboys have largely resisted.

Pre-snap motion vs motion at the snap

Not all motions are created equal. Pre-snap motion involves a player shifting but then becomes set before the snap. It’s often used to help diagnose coverages, create more favorable mismatches in coverage or to create confusion on defense.

Pre-snap motion is something Schottenheimer picked up from his days with the Chargers and something he used somewhat frequently in Seattle. If McCarthy wants to increase the pre-snap usage with the Cowboys in 2023, Schottenheimer knows how to get it done.

The second type of motion is motion at the snap. As the name implies, this involves a player still in the act of motion when the ball is snapped. Since players cannot be moving forward, all at-the-snap motion must be horizontal in nature.

This type of motion will force coverage units to process the change, communicate the change, and execute the change in an instant.

It can also be used to avoid press coverage (a freer release), gain a speed advantage (since the offensive player doesn’t have to start from a dead stop), and horizontally stretch defenses (opening up bigger rushing lanes in the middle).

What is the actual impact of motion?

ESPN’s Seth Walder is the top man in motion tracking. His first big piece on motion broke down how teams like the Ravens and 49ers were using it to gain major advantages on offense and to what degree motion impacts both phases of the game.

He showed using at-the-snap mptopm resulted in an average increase of 0.08 expected points added (EPA/play). On designed running plays, it averaged an increase of 0.11 EPA/P. Those are not insignificant numbers.

Pre-snap motion is most useful for diagnosing. It only offers minimal gains in EPA/P and is a great tool for inexperienced quarterbacks to identify man and zone looks.

At-the-snap motion’s effectiveness varies based on coverages. Against zone, motion offers a 0.04 EPA/P advantage but against man, it produces a whopping 0.12 EPA/P increase.

Obviously, teams who thrive with motion use it more often than those who do not, therefore they skew the data a bit making it look universally more productive than it would actually be for some teams. But the point stands true: it adds value to plays.

Brian Burke, the godfather of analytics, found at-the snap motion is worth an extra 0.04 EPA/P on passing plays and an extra 0.08 EPA/P on rushing plays.

Regardless of where exactly that number sits at this exact moment, it stands to reason it’s major advantage for offenses to use. And if the Cowboys want to build a more efficient attack, they should take a page out of someone like San Francisco’s playbook and use motion at-the-snap more often.

Disadvantages to motion?

Everything comes at a cost.

The forward pass brought big gains to the NFL but also offered a higher probability for turnovers. Blitzing increases the likelihood of opposing offenses being stuffed for a negative gain but also gives up a higher percentage of big plays.

Motion gives clear advantages in EPA but also increases the odds of a pre-snap penalty.

Josh Hermsmeyer at FiveThirtyEight found that delay of game penalties can increase in offenses that frequently motion. It’s understandable because it involves an extra step between the play coming in and the snap of the ball. It requires play-callers to get calls in quickly so there’s enough time to execute before the play clock expires.

San Francisco is proof it can be done since they are simultaneously heavy in motion usage and light in delay of game penalties.

Under Moore’s play-calling, the Cowboys were a top-5 offense in tempo, so the idea of slowing things to add motion likely didn’t appeal to Moore. But the offense might be planning to slow considerably (by design) in 2023 because McCarthy wants more rest for his defense in between possessions.

The Cowboys players should be well-equipped to handle an extra wrinkle such as motion since they’re used to moving fast. As long as McCarthy gets the play in, there’s no reason penalties have to increase (just like in San Francisco).

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Where does McCarthy and the Cowboys stand?

If McCarthy really did have an awakening before he joined the Cowboys and really did make an effort to understand and embrace analytics, then adding more motion at-the-snap would be an obvious addition for him.

But neither recent evidence nor his track record indicates it will.

The Cowboys were below average in motion at-the-snap in 2022 and that’s likely on McCarthy as much as it’s on Moore. Since motion is a game-plan item, both parties are responsible for the degree in which it was used last season, meaning unless there’s a change of heart, it’s unlikely to go up in 2023.

The presence of Schottenheimer may spark an increase but even he preferred pre-snap motion to motion at-the-snap, and pre-snap motion only shows mild advantages in EPA/P.

Prescott, one of the best QBs in the NFL in pre-snap diagnosis, is like Rodgers in that he doesn’t need pre-snap motion in order to make his coverage reads. But as explained earlier, pre-snap motion only offers minimal EPA gains and the real impact is on motion at-the-snap.

When discussing motion in general, McCarthy routinely focuses in on pre-snap motion and shifts. He rarely, if ever, mentions motion at-the-snap and its tremendous impact on the game.

Based on this, it’s fair to say the Cowboys are unlikely to increase their rate of motion at-the-snap and will probably remain behind the pack in this tried-and-true cheat code.

Story originally appeared on Cowboys Wire