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How much the Colts hurt their playoff chances with Sunday's loss to the Bengals

nat newell, indianapolis star
·3 min read

The Colts' playoff chances took a hit with Sunday's 34-14 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals but, perhaps, not as much as you might think.

The Colts odds have slipped from 66% to 44%, according to the New York Times. There are currently six AFC teams with 7-6 records and the Colts hold the 7th and final position.

The good news? Indianapolis has better odds to make it than one of the teams ahead of it -- Pittsburgh (25%). The bad news? Of the six 7-6 teams competing for the final two playoff sports, the Colts rank third, behind Buffalo (49%) and Denver (48%). Houston is at 39%, Cincinnati 25%.

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AFC Playoff Picture

  1. Baltimore (10-3)

  2. Miami (9-4)

  3. Kansas City (8-5)

  4. Jacksonville (8-5)

  5. Cleveland (8-5)

  6. Pittsburgh (7-6)

  7. Indianapolis (7-6)

  8. Houston (7-6)

  9. Denver (7-6)

  10. Cincinnati (7-6)

  11. Buffalo (7-6)

Why are the Colts the seventh seed?

The top team in each division goes to the first tiebreaker -- Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis and Denver. Since none of the teams have played all the others, it goes to conference record. The Steelers and Colts are 5-4, Buffalo and Denver 4-5. Pittsburgh has the common games -- 6-4 vs. 5-5 -- tiebreaker over the Colts but, obviously, this would be decided by the result of Saturday's game between the teams.

But right now, we go through the same process with Cincinnati, Buffalo, Indianapolis and Denver. The Bengals are 3-6 in the conference so the Colts get the final spot.

Why Saturday's game vs. the Steelers is must win

With the Steelers being one of the other 7-6 teams, the head-to-head tiebreaker -- as noted above -- could come into play. It's also a conference game, of course, which is a significant tiebreaker for the wild card spots. A loss doesn't eliminate the Colts, but it would also raise questions about their chances given Pittsburgh's struggles without quarterback Kenny Pickett.

Why the Colts' season finale vs. Texans became more important

The Colts beat Houston in their first meeting but were swept by the Jaguars. The Texans split with Jacksonville, giving them an edge in the division tiebreaker. If they beat the sagging Tennessee Titans twice, a victory over the Colts gives them the tiebreaker.

As noted above, the NFL breaks the division tiebreakers first so the Texans would then get priority over the Colts for a wild card berth and would be in the tiebreakers above instead of the Colts.

A Colts victory, of course, gives them the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Texans.

How do the Colts fare in 2-, 3- and 4-way ties?

If the Colts advance over the Texans there are possible tiebreakers with Pittsburgh or Cincinnati and, possibly, Denver and/or Buffalo. Again, we're assuming Cleveland's record gives it the fifth seed and the teams listed below have the best records. (It's possible the Texans could be the seventh seed in these scenarios.)

∎ Pittsburgh and Indianapolis: Tiebreaker will come down to Saturday's game.

∎ Cincinnati and Indianapolis: Seventh; Bengals own head-to-head tiebreaker.

∎ Denver and Indianapolis: Sixth; the Colts have the conference tiebreaker edge 5-4 vs. 4-5.

∎ Buffalo and Indianapolis: Sixth; Colts win the conference tiebreaker 5-4 vs. 4-5.

∎ Pittsburgh, Denver and Indianapolis: Seventh; Broncos are eliminated by conference record, Steelers have head-to-head tiebreaker.

∎ Cincinnati, Denver and Indianapolis: Sixth; Colts win the conference tiebreaker, Cincinnati is eliminated.

∎ Buffalo, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis: Seventh; Bills are eliminated by conference record, Steelers have head-to-head tiebreaker.

∎ Buffalo, Cincinnati and Indianapolis: Sixth, Colts win conference tiebreaker, Bills are eliminated by head-to-head.

∎ Buffalo, Denver and Indianapolis: Sixth, Colts win conference tiebreaker, Bills are eliminated by head-to-head.

∎ Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Denver and Indianapolis: Tiebreaker decided Saturday, Buffalo and Denver are eliminated by conference record.

∎ Buffalo, Cincinnati, Denver and Indianapolis: Sixth, Cincinnati is eliminated by conference record, Bills eliminated by head-to-head.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: NFL Playoffs 2023: How much the Colts hurt their playoff chances Sunday