Money? Legacy? Stanley Cup? What is it that Steven Stamkos wants most?

TAMPA — Every discussion about Steven Stamkos seems to revolve around the same inquiry:

How much can the Lightning afford to pay him?

It’s the obvious question. The team has salary cap problems, Stamkos gave Tampa Bay a hometown discount eight years ago that paved the way for the front office to put together a Stanley Cup roster, and the Lightning rolled the dice by not offering him an extension last summer. So, yeah, the onus seems to be on the team to offer the captain a deal commensurate with his status.

But what if we look at the situation in a different way:

How badly does Stamkos want to stay in Tampa Bay?

We’re pretty sure we know the answer. He’s talked plenty of times about how much this community, and the franchise, means to him. He is as beloved as any player in Lightning history and, quite possibly, is the most iconic athlete this market has ever known.

But is it possible he has different priorities at this point in his career?

What if chasing another Stanley Cup is the one thing Stamkos cares more about than wearing a Lightning jersey?

Would he have a better chance at winning a championship with a team on the rise such as Detroit where, incidentally, former Lightning general manager Steve Yzerman and former assistant coach Derek Lalonde are in charge?

Would he have a better chance in Toronto, where the Maple Leafs have all sorts of talent but never seem to find the right formula in the postseason?

Does he look at the Florida Panthers, the defending Eastern Conference champions, and see similarities to where the Lightning were years ago?

If we’re being realistic there are at least a half-dozen teams, and probably more, that will have better odds of winning the Stanley Cup in 2025 than Tampa Bay.

And the irony is that the Lightning’s chances will probably dwindle if the team overpays Stamkos and loses the salary cap flexibility to address the depth issues on defense and with the bottom-six forwards.

Just before the start of the playoffs, I asked Stamkos if he understood the bind general manager Julien BriseBois was facing when it came to finding enough money under the salary cap to pay him.

“That’s, um yeah, that’s his perspective,” Stamkos said. “Listen, I have the utmost respect for everyone in this organization. We owe a lot to each other for the success that we’ve had. We couldn’t have done it without each other.”

It didn’t exactly sound as if Stamkos, at age 34, was eager to accept another undervalued contract. And maybe that’s the proper tone for him to take before negotiations begin to heat up. I mean, why signal that you are willing to take less money to stay?

So how much will it cost to sign Stamkos?

Probably more than it would have six weeks ago.

Stamkos was brilliant down the stretch for the Lightning, scoring 16 goals in the final 20 regular-season games to secure a playoff spot. And he was just as dynamic in the first-round loss to the Panthers, scoring four goals in five games, blocking shots, delivering hits and generally playing like a guy still in his prime.

It’s not inconceivable that a team with plenty of salary cap space, such as Chicago or Anaheim, will offer far more money than Tampa Bay. That may tempt him, but I don’t think it will sway him. Honestly, I can’t see him chasing the biggest paycheck if there is little chance for postseason success.

Even with Tampa Bay’s playoff losses and salary cap mess, I’d guess the odds are 3-to-1 that he stays. Maybe even 4-to-1.

Stamkos clearly loves the franchise, he appreciates his legacy as a guy who helped Tampa Bay establish a reputation as a hockey town, and he literally started his family here after arriving as a teenager.

Not to mention, he has one of the best playmakers in the NHL feeding him precision passes for his one-timer on the power play.

Those are all pretty enticing reasons to stay, particularly if BriseBois convinces him there is a pathway for the Lightning to be serious contenders in the next few seasons.

“Things have a funny way of taking care of themselves when you have good people working together,” Stamkos said in that same conversation before the playoffs. “So, we’ll see what happens.”

John Romano can be reached at jromano@tampabay.com. Follow @romano_tbtimes.

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