MLB Winter Meetings: Red Sox Deal Verdugo to Yankees

Tuesday marked the second day of the winter meetings, and while the vast majority of the day was filled with just rumors and waiting to see where Shohei Ohtani landed, things picked up at night with the MLB Draft lottery and a trade between bitter division rivals. Let's dig into the key storylines of the day.

Red Sox Deal Alex Verdugo to Yankees for Three Pitching Prospects

The Winter Meetings began to heat up with a trade between bitter division rivals when the Red Sox traded outfielder Alex Verdugo to the Yankees for right-handers Richard Fitts, Greg Weissert and Nicholas Judice.

Verdugo saw his performance dip in 2023 as he allegedly dealt with some off-field issues. He slashed .264/.324/.421 with 13 home runs, 81 runs, 54 RBI, and five steals in 142 games. However, he was also benched twice over the summer by Red Sox manager Alex Cora, and there seemed to be growing tension between Verdugo and his manager.

With the Red Sox promoting top outfield prospect Ceddanne Rafaela at the end of the season and getting a bounceback year from 27-year-old former top prospect Jarren Duran, there was a bit of a logjam in the outfield with Masataka Yoshida and Wilyer Abreu also fighting for at-bats.

In New York, Verdugo figures to play left field the majority of the time (assuming the Yankees acquire Juan Soto for right field) with Aaron Judge sliding to center field on days when he does not DH. There’s some thought that Verdugo could see a power boost with the short porch in Yankees Stadium; however, that would require a bit of a swing change, so it would be safe not to assume more than 15+ home runs for Verdugo and a bit of a dip in runs since he’s unlikely to lead off for the Yankees.

Richard Fitts appears to be the headliner for Boston’s part. He was the 16^th-ranked prospect in the Yankees’ farm system, according to Baseball America. A 6’3” righty who will be 24 years old next season, Fitts registered a 3.48 ERA (3.92 FIP) with a 163/43 K/BB ratio in 152.2 innings in Double-A. He was voted as having the best command in the league, according to managers. He enters Boston’s system as their 10^th-ranked prospect, according to MLB Pipeline.

While Greg Weissert is a 28-year-old reliever who was up and down between Triple-A and the Majors, Nicholas Judice is a fairly interesting arm. He’s a 6’8” righty who the Yankees took in the eighth round of the 2023 draft but did not pitch any professional innings last year. His four-seam fastball averaged 92.5 in college but also had the ability to hit triple-digits. The pitch has plus vertical break, and he pairs that with a slider that sat 85-86 with good sweep.

With the Red Sox lacking pitching depth in their organization and the Yankees needing a left-handed outfielder, this trade seems like one that fills needs for both teams.

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Red Sox Now Eyeing Two Right-Handed Outfielders

With the Red Sox moving on from Alex Verdugo, the team is now reportedly interested in right-handed outfielders Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Michael A. Taylor as they look to find a hitter who could fill an OF/DH platoon with Masataka Yoshida.

Gurriel is the more attractive offensive option after hitting .261/.309/.463 in 145 games for the Diamondbacks. He added 24 home runs, 65 Runs, 82 RBI, and five steals while cutting his swinging strike rate to a career-low 8% and registering as a slightly above-average defensive outfielder with an Outs Above Average grade of 1.

Meanwhile, Taylor is one of the better defensive centerfielders in baseball, posting an Outs Above Average grade of 8. He also still brings decent speed with 13 steals in 388 plate appearances in 2023; however, he did slash just .220/.278/.442 with a 33.5% strikeout rate to go along with a solid 21 home runs. He would likely be less of a preferred option for a DH spot, so the choice between these two outfielders might come down to if Boston is prioritizing offense or defense for that last OF/DH spot in their lineup.

Orioles Interested in RHP Craig Kimbrel

With Felix Bautista out for the season, the Baltimore Orioles were always clear candidates to boost the back of their bullpen. One of the leading names to fill that task is former Phillies closer Craig Kimbrel, who has been “seriously engaged” in talks with Baltimore, according to New York Post’s Joel Sherman.

At 35-years-old, Kimbrel is coming off a 23-save season, his third season in a row with 22 saves or more. He also registered a 3.26 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 94/28 K/BB ratio in 69 innings. One of the most consistent closers in baseball (forgetting his brief 35 inning meltdown in 2019-2020), Kimbrel would likely slot in as the closer in Baltimore and allow the Orioles to move last year’s breakout Yennier Cano back to more of a fireman role.

Lucas Giolito’s Market is Heating Up

The early stages of the MLB offseason have been quiet, but two of the bigger free agents to sign have both been starting pitchers: Lance Lynn and Sonny Gray both signing with the St. Louis Cardinals. On Tuesday, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported that another starting pitcher is seeing his market heat up as the Dodgers, Mets, Red Sox, Diamondbacks and Royals have expressed serious interest in right-hander Lucas Giolito.

The 29-year-old former White Sox ace had a rough 2023 season, registering a 4.88 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 204/73 K/BB ratio across 184 1/3 innings for the White Sox, Angels and Guardians. He seemed to have lost the effectiveness of his slider for much of the year, and his change-up was not the dominant pitch we’d come to know in years past, but he’s not too far removed from a 2021 season that saw him produce a 3.53 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 201/52 K/BB ratio in 178.2 innings.

All of those teams Morosi mentioned have been linked to most of the big-name starting pitchers, so there are no real surprises there other than the Royals also being in the mix. However, Morosi also mentioned that Giolito’s market would be impacted by pursuit of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, so we might not have resolution on Giolito’s situation any time soon.

Cubs and Rays in Trade Discussions Involving Christopher Morel and Tyler Glasnow

While the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers have been the most active teams so far this offseason, one of their division rivals is stirring up a lot of muck under the surface of the MLB offseason water. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported on Tuesday that Chicago Cubs and Tampa Bay Rays have had trade discussions centered around utility player Christopher and starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow.

Obviously, Glasnow is one of the most talented pitchers rumored to be available this offseason. However, he also has a lengthy injury history and is essentially on a one-year, $25 million deal contract, so any team that acquires him could be looking at a one-year rental.

When healthy, there are few more dynamic pitchers. In 120 innings this year, Glasnow had a 3.53 ERA (2.75 xFIP, 3.08 SIERA), with a 1.08 WHIP, and 162/37 K/BB ratio. However, Glasnow is already 30 years old and last season was the first time he’s ever thrown over 111 innings in the big leagues. He’s the ultimate risk/reward gamble.

On the other hand, Morel is a talented 24-year-old hitter with multiple years of team control, who is coming off a 2023 season where he posted a .821 OPS with a career-high 26 homers and 15.5% barrel rate. He also added six steals in 429 plate appearances and continues to show the type of high-end raw tools that all teams covet.

However, Morel posted a 31% strikeout rate in 2023 after posting a 32.2% mark in 2022 and a 30.6% rate in 29 Triple-A games to begin 2022. His 32.4% O-Swing was 43rd-percentile and his 17.1% swinging strike rate was second percentile in all of baseball. He also has no real defensive home considering he ranked below average in Outs Above Average while playing 2B, LF, and RF in 2023. The only positions where he was even average, finishing with exactly zero Outs Above Average, were at 3B and CF.

Given his elite athleticism and the juice in his bat, it makes sense for some team to dream on what would happen if they could improve his plate discipline, and Tampa Bay is certainly one of those teams that trusts their development enough to assume that they can get the best out of Morel.

Cubs in Discussion with 1B Rhys Hoskins on a One-Year Contract

However, Tyler Glasnow wasn’t the only injury-riddled player with star potential that the Cubs were sniffing around. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported that the Cubs had turned their attention to Rhys Hoskins not long after it was reported that the team had lost confidence in their ability to land Shohei Ohtani.

Hoskins, who will turn 31 before next season starts, makes sense for the Cubs if they decide to move on from Morel since there’s been talk that Morel would play more first base next season. The Cubs right now have no clear starters at either first base or designated hitter despite how much the fantasy community loves Matt Mervis.

Hoskins missed all of 2023 after tearing his ACL in spring training. Over his six-year career, Hoskins has a .242/.353/.493 triple slash with an impressive 13.5% walk rate and a 23.9% strikeout rate that is low for a player with his type of power who can put up a .500 slugging percentage. When the Phillies decided to move Bryce Harper to first base for 2024 to aid in his recovery from a shoulder injury, that meant the team decided not to extend a qualifying offer to Hoskins. The Cubs could be looking at him on an incentive-laden one-year deal much like the one they signed Cody Bellinger to last season while he tried to recoup his value after dealing with injuries.

Chicago can only hope that a deal with Hoskins would lead to a similar result.

Pirates Will Move Henry Davis Back to Catcher

The Pirates were aggressive in promoting their top prospect, Henry Davis, in the middle of 2023, but they also made the decision to have him play exclusively in the outfield. At the Winter Meetings, Pirates manager Derek Shelton said that Davis will return to his natural position behind the dish in 2024.

While Davis’s bat was deemed ready for the majors in 2023, there remained major concerns about his defensive ability, which is why he lost out on playing time in 2023 to defense-first veteran Austin Hedges, and fellow rookie backstop Endy Rodríguez.

According to MLB scouts, Davis has enough ability to remain behind the plate, but he needs reps. His receiving appears to be the biggest issue right now. His blocking is just average, but he has a great arm, so his ability to control the running game could be elite if he’s able to refine his footwork and approach. Some scouting services believe that the one-knee-down catching style will help Davis, but that he needs to work to loosen his hips so he can move laterally better and receive better.

As an offensive player, Davis hit .286 in 434 career minor league at-bats with a .947 OPS, 25 home runs, and 20 steals. His 62-game MLB sample was less impressive, with a .213/.302/.351 triple-slash, seven home runs, and a 27.1% strikeout rate; however, the offensive potential is clear and he will certainly be more impactful for the Pirates and fantasy managers if he remains at catcher. With his offensive upside, he could be one of the best-hitting catchers in baseball, but there is some work that needs to be done this offseason.

The other impact of this is what happens to Endy Rodriguez, who would seem to lose a shot at significant playing time if Davis becomes the starting catcher.

White Sox agree to Two-Year Deal With Erick Fedde

One of the surprisingly trendy names at the Winter Meetings was former Nationals’ starter Erick Fedde. After leaving MLB following 127 mediocre innings in 2022, Fedde went to the KBO where he posted a 2.00 ERA and 0.954 WHIP in 180.1 innings with a 209/35 K/BB ratio en route to winning the league’s version of the Cy Young.

While many may write that off to taking advantage of a lesser league, there has been some inside information provided online by Brian Bannister, who is a Senior Pitching Advisor in the White Sox organization, that Fedde altered his pitch mix while working with Bannister and White Sox pitching coach Ethan Kratz.

We've seen a few pitchers, like Merrill Kelly and Miles Mikolas, go abroad to re-start their careers, so it's not out of the question that Fedde, armed with a new pitch mix and approach on the mound, could add his name to that list.

Rangers Signed Kirby Yates to One-Year Deal

The veteran right-hander battled injuries from 2020-22, pitching just 11.1 major league innings between those three seasons. However, he returned to action in 2023 with the Braves and looked good, registering a 3.28 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 80/37 K/BB ratio in 60.1 innings while accruing five saves.

His fastball velocity averaged 93.6 mph, which was right in line with his career-norms; however, the Braves seemed to shift Yates to being a two-pitch pitcher, relying exclusively on his four-seam and splitter and scrapping the slider almost entirely. The increased reliance on the splitter paid off, as the pitch posted a 16.6% swinging strike rate, 33.9% CSW, and 1.65 Defensive Independent ERA, which is a metric that projects what a pitcher's earned run average would have been without the effects of defense and luck.

The Rangers figure to use Yates alongside Jonathan Hernandez and Josh Sborz as part of a late-inning bridge to presumed closer Jose Leclerc.

MLB Draft Lottery

Another big MLB offseason event on Tuesday was the MLB Draft Lottery. Despite coming into the night with just a 2% chance of landing the top pick, the Cleveland Guardians were the big winners of the evening, landing the number one pick. The Reds were awarded the second pick, and the Colorado Rockies finished with the third pick. The Athletics, White Sox, and Royals rounded out the top six.

Unfortunately, that was bad news for the Mets, Padres, and Yankees. All three teams exceeded the second level of the competitive balance tax, which means they needed to land a pick inside the top six in order to keep a spot commensurate with their record. Since they did not, their picks all fell to 10 spots later than they were selected to draft. That means the Mets will draft 19^th, the Padres will draft 24^th, and the Yankees will draft 25^th. For comparison’s sake, playoff teams like Miami, Tampa Bay, and Milwaukee will all draft before each of those three teams.

Obviously, the big winner from the draft lottery is Cleveland, who will now have the first pick for the first time in the history of their organization. While this is not thought to be an overly impressive draft, and there is a lot of debate about who the top prospects are, many prospect circles have Wake Forest first baseman Nick Kurtz as the clear top player, which could provide a high-upside bat into Cleveland’s system. The odds given to the Guardians prior to the lottery suggested they would pick ninth, so this is quite a coup for them.

The Reds also made out like bandits, as they had just a 9% chance to land in the lottery and just a 1% chance to land the second overall pick. This is a young and talented team that will now be able to land another elite prospect to their farm system. The last time they picked second overall, they took RHP Hunter Greene in 2017.

The Oakland Athletics saw their rough 2023 get even rougher. They came into the night tied with the best odds to land the number one pick. Instead, they’ll pick fourth and, since this is their second straight year in the lottery, they will not be eligible to have a top nine pick in 2025, regardless of how poorly they perform on the field.