Mississippi State basketball's 'good problem' vs South Carolina: Scouting report, prediction
Mississippi State basketball got All-SEC forward Tolu Smith back in its nonconference finale against Bethune-Cookman on Dec. 31. With that, according to coach Chris Jans, comes a "good problem."
The Bulldogs need to figure out how to intertwine their star’s return with the strong play of Jimmy Bell Jr. – the West Virginia transfer who stepped into the starting lineup during Smith’s 12-game absence.
Minutes are at a premium, particularly with SEC play tipping off Saturday (11 a.m., CBS) when MSU (11-2) takes the national stage at South Carolina (12-1).
“I haven’t figured it out yet,” Jans said of the rotation between the two. “It’s going to be a work in progress. We’re going to have to figure it out here in practice and certainly in the early games.”
Smith scored 16 points and collected nine rebounds coming off the bench for 19 minutes against Bethune-Cookman, but Jans said there will be no minutes restriction for him moving forward. Last season, Smith averaged 27.6 minutes per game while his backup, Will McNair Jr., played 12.7.
The minutes for Bell will regress, but Jans has reason to slim the gap compared to last season. Bell is averaging 9.3 points and an SEC-best 9.2 rebounds per game. After starting all 34 games for the Mountaineers last season, he’s clearly a more serviceable option that what Jans had in his first season at Mississippi State.
If Smith gets into foul trouble, Bell can slide in. If Smith is battling an injury or fatigue, Bell is an option. If Smith is struggling in a particular matchup, Bell can check in.
Could Tolu Smith, Jimmy Bell Jr. play together vs. South Carolina?
While it’ll be rare, there’s also the potential of Bell and Smith playing together.
“We’ve done it in practice,” Jans said. “We’ve talked about it. It’s not a problem on offense. It’s more of a problem on defense with having two 5’s on the court at the same time.”
South Carolina’s most popular rotation features a pair of 6-foot-8 players on the court together in Stephen Clark and BJ Mack. It’s a lineup used 17.4% of the time across the past five games, according to KenPom.
Clark spent the previous four seasons at The Citadel, where he fluctuated between being labeled a power forward and a center by KenPom. Mack, who spent a season at South Florida and three at Wofford before arriving at South Carolina last offseason, has always been listed as a center.
Perhaps Jans won’t have to wander deep into SEC play to test out a lineup of Smith and Bell. Game 1 could provide an opportunity.
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Score prediction
Mississippi State 70, South Carolina 64: When MSU is at its best, it’s playing clean and knocking down 3-pointers. South Carolina’s defense ranks outside the top 200 in turnover rate and 3-pointer percentage. This leans toward a favorable matchup for a Mississippi State team in need of a strong start to SEC play.
Stefan Krajisnik is the Mississippi State beat writer for the Clarion Ledger. Contact him at skrajisnik@gannett.com or follow him on the X platform, formerly known as Twitter, @skrajisnik3.
This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Mississippi State score prediction vs. South Carolina: SEC basketball
