Milwaukee Brewers say they're not selling this year. How much will Cincinnati Reds buy?

SEATTLE — Some of the best players in the National League Central have one eye on the fast-approaching trade deadline for its impact on what’s already been a wild division race.

And the other eye on the Cincinnati Reds.

Milwaukee Brewers All-Star closer Devin Williams, for example, is waiting to see whether the third-place Cubs – at five games under .500 – will sell or buy as they approach the deadline, with potential difference-making players in play for trades out of the division (Cody Bellinger, Marcus Stroman).

“They’re still in it,” Williams pointed out. “But right now we’re more focused on the Reds. They seem the bigger threat at this point.”

As baseball moves on from Tuesday’s All-Star game, it shifts focus to the Aug. 1 trade deadline and pennant-race heat. And for the Reds and Brewers that means three games between the top two teams in the NL Central starting Friday – and six of the first 13 out of the break.

And don’t think both of those teams aren’t sensitive to the possible impact of the trade deadline – especially, perhaps, the Brewers, who watched top baseball-operations executive David Stearns trade one of the best closers in the game (Josh Hader) out from under their first-place team at the deadline a year ago.

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But if the Reds think they might get the same break from an unforced front office error from Stearns this time around, they should think again. For two reasons.

First, Stearns isn't running the day-to-day baseball operations for the Brewers anymore.

Second, Brewers ace Corbin Burnes – the former Cy Young Award winner speculated since February to be a possible trade piece this summer – said he was told directly by Brewers general manager Matt Arnold that he’s not getting traded.

“From what I heard, that won’t happen,” Burnes said. “From what I’ve heard, we’re actively trying to win baseball games. I don’t think what happened last year is something that they’re going to do year after year."

Burnes added: “A lot of people know that probably wasn’t the best thing to do last year after how the year finished.”

The Brewers missed the playoffs by one game in 2022, and the team that beat them for the last NL spot wound up in the World Series.

“Where we’re at this year, they like our squad, from what I’ve heard, so they’re going to look to add a few pieces here and there,” Burnes said.

Burnes made it clear where he heard it: from Arnold. And not because he felt the need to seek out Arnold for personal clarification or peace of mind.

“As Arnold walks through the clubhouse and sits down and has lunch with us, he’s always picking our brains and just asking how we’re doing,” Burnes said. “So if he’s going to sit down and have lunch with one of us, we’re not afraid to ask those questions.”

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All of which would suggest that the Brewers probably aren’t going away in the second half – unless the Reds do something to knock them there.

That’s where the Cardinals and Cubs come into play as possible sellers – not as teams that would sell within the division so much as teams that could impact the supply-and-demand dynamics in what currently is very much a seller’s market.

“For us, it’s going to be interesting,” Pirates manager Derek Shelton said of his second-half analysis of the division race, “because the Reds roster is completely different than the one we saw (in April). Their infield is completely different than what we saw.

“And I think the biggest thing as we get closer to the deadline is the decisions that people make, whether they’re going to add or subtract,” Shelton said. “The fact that everybody is so bunched up – the next two weeks is going to be a big determining factor in how it goes.”

Cubs All-Star starter Justin Steele, who has been one of the big reasons Chicago is the only NL Central team with a plus-side run differential, said it’s those kinds of underlying stats that make him and teammates believe they can avoid a selloff that buries them in the second half – maybe even before the Reds go to Wrigley Field at the end of the month.

“That’s my biggest frustrating part, not being able to see the results even though we’re playing decent,” Steele said. “But if you ask anybody in the clubhouse, we’re more than capable of winning ballgames, going on a run and making things look a lot different.”

Bottom line for the Reds, it would seem, is that what they do with the one-game lead as they head into their final 71 games of the season is up to them – and maybe general manager Nick Krall as much as any of them.

“I don’t know which teams are going to sell and which are going to buy,” Burnes said, speculating that the Cards are obvious sellers and the Pirates might be right behind the. “The Cubs are four or five games behind us, but that’s one good week and one bad week from someone at the top from switching around.

“Obviously, I think us and the Reds at the top of the division will look to add,” he added. “But the kind of teams that we are, you can get some help and maybe get a little bit of incremental advantage, but I don’t think either team in the division is going to have that much of a drastic change.”

Of course, if the Reds – with that 5.69 starting-rotation ERA – were to add a starter, there’s a difference maker, right?

“It could help,” Burnes said. “But I think they need a lot more pitching than maybe one starter.”

If those aren’t fighting words for the Reds on the field, maybe they’d at least make a decent memo to Krall.

“We’ll see how it plays out,” Williams said.

This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Why Cincinnati Reds can't count on help Brewers gave rivals last year