It might look bleak, but 5 reasons Eagles will beat Buccaneers, make a run in NFL playoffs

PHILADELPHIA − Sure, things look bleak for the Eagles.

By now, we all know the refrain of how they finished the season 1-5 after a 10-1 start, going from the overall No. 1 seed in the NFC to playing as a wild-card team at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night.

During that time, the Eagles have changed defensive coordinators, with Matt Patricia replacing Sean Desai. The defense seems to have gotten worse as the unit gave up 62 points in back-to-back losses to the Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants with a combined record of 10-24.

During the last six games, the Eagles have given up an average of 30.3 points per game.

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It hasn't been any better on offense as quarterback Jalen Hurts, an MVP favorite after the 10-1 start, has a passer rating of 77.6 with five touchdowns and five interceptions in the last six games. Only three NFL quarterbacks have had a worse rating over the entire season − the Jets' Zach Wilson, the Patriots' Mac Jones and the Panthers' Bryce Young.

But we're trying to be optimistic. Like defensive end Brandon Graham said after the 27-10 loss to the Giants last Sunday: "We have an opportunity. It’s 0-0. It’s a reset and I know we can get back to what we were, and it’s going to start this week.

"I don’t think we’re going to fold at all. I just believe we had a rough, rough ending, but it’s about to get started."

We'll find out soon enough. For now, let's take the Eagles' five biggest problems down the stretch and explain why they actually might have it figured out in time to save their season:

Matt Patricia is new DC and Eagles are still allowing 30 points per game during slide

Counter: It certainly sounded troubling when Patricia began his press conference Wednesday with this: "Some things to really learn from in the last game, which was good. Some things over the last several weeks we learned from and tried to grow."

Patricia has run the defense for the last four games, and the fact that players are still learning the scheme could indicate that Patricia has changed the defense more than anticipated after Desai was demoted.

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Patricia denied that, but then added: "You always try to add as the season goes, certainly," he said. "And things that have been on tape that you need to move either in a different direction, or sometimes player changes can affect that, too."

Sure, you'd love to see signs that it's working. And we certainly saw enough against the Giants of edge rusher Haason Reddick dropping into coverage against a faster receiver, or Nolan Smith chasing after Saquon Barkley as the Giants running back hauled in a 46-yard pass.

But if Patricia was given the mandate to tinker in order to find something that works for the playoffs, then perhaps he's figured out how to play to the players' strengths and away from their weaknesses.

Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are all injured to some degree

Counter: There really isn't a counter if all three can't play. But it had to be encouraging that Brown (knee) was moving around without a limp in the locker room, and that Hurts (finger) was able to pop his dislocated finger back into place and continue playing until he and most of the starters were benched. Smith (ankle) could have been held out as a precaution on the notoriously bad MetLife Stadium turf.

The passing game will be crucial against the Bucs, who are ranked 29th. And Brown (1,456 yards receiving) and Smith (1,066 yards) can certainly exploit their secondary. As can tight end Dallas Goedert.

But the Eagles will also need to establish the run with D'Andre Swift (1,047 yards) even though Tampa Bay is fifth best against the run.

The Eagles have certainly shown this during the season. Swift had 130 yards rushing and Brown had 131 yards receiving in the Sept. 25 meeting, which the Eagles won 25-11. The Eagles racked up 472 yards of offense in that game.

Haason Reddick hasn't had a sack in 4 games, Josh Sweat in 8

Counter: The Eagles can't win if they're not getting pressure on Bucs QB Baker Mayfield. That has certainly been a problem for the Eagles as they went from 70 sacks in 2022, the third most in NFL history, to just 45 this season.

But Reddick still had 11 sacks. And while Sweat's total of 6.5 is down from the 11 he had last season, he had a career-high in pressures with 75 and QB hits with 23. As for defensive tackle, both Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis showed signs of wearing down late in the season.

Both Carter (2 forced fumbles, 0.5 sacks) and Davis played well against the Bucs in the first meeting, and both were rested in the second half against the Giants.

Offensive line was abused by Giants' blitz, and Bucs blitz like crazy

Counter: Bucs coach Todd Bowles will certainly look at the video of the Giants seemingly confounding the Eagles with their blitz. The Giants were second in blitzing percentage and the Bucs were third.

Hurts didn't handle it well against the Giants. But could that have been a product of not having both Brown and Swift for most of the first half? Either way, Hurts has to be better, as does the offensive line, and the coaches providing answers when the Bucs do blitz.

"First and foremost, we have to give everybody the tools and the answers to go out there and execute their job properly against the blitz," offensive coordinator Brian Johnson said. "(The Giants) did a great job of doing some unique things that created some issues for us."

Bucs have 2 top receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and Eagles can't cover anybody

Counter: The Eagles played their best defensive game of the season in first meeting, limiting Tampa Bay to 174 yards of offense.

In that game, cornerback Darius Slay, who is expected back after missing the previous four games to have arthroscopic knee surgery, followed Evans around. James Bradberry, meanwhile, bumped inside to nickel, especially when Godwin lined up there.

The Eagles could try a similar strategy with Kelee Ringo or Eli Ricks on the outside. But the Eagles will be hurting at safety if Reed Blankenship (groin) can't play, in addition to rookie and fellow safety Sydney Brown, who tore his ACL.

That leaves Kevin Byard as the only safety, although Avonte Maddox has played there before.

And one other thing: The Bucs, needing to win last Sunday in order to clinch the NFC South or miss the playoffs entirely, only beat the 2-15 Carolina Panthers 9-0. The Bucs could only muster 228 yards of offense and three field goals.

"As I keep saying, so many teams go through a lot of stuff," defensive tackle Fletcher Cox said. "But we got a smile on our face because we get a chance to play (this) week. I kind of know this team, at the moment, is kind of in a funk.

"But for us, everything is now win or go home … I can bet you this team is going to come out on fire."

Contact Martin Frank at mfrank@delawareonline.com. Follow on X @Mfranknfl.

This article originally appeared on Delaware News Journal: Philadelphia Eagles: 5 reasons they will beat Buccaneers in NFL playoffs