Michigan vs. Washington: CFP prediction and scouting report for national title game

HOUSTON — Free Press sports writer Tony Garcia breaks down Michigan football's College Football Playoff championship game matchup vs. Washington on Monday night:

Fast facts

Matchup: No. 1 Michigan (14-0) vs. No. 2 Washington (14-0).

Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. Monday; NRG Stadium, Houston.

TV/radio: ESPN and its family of networks; WXYT-FM (97.1).

Line: Wolverines by 4½.

Injury report

Michigan: Out: DT Rayshaun Benny (lower body).

Washington: Out: WR Giles Jackson (redshirt), OL Gaard Memmelaar (undisclosed), RB Cameron Davis (lower body); Questionable: RB Dillon Johnson (lower body).

Scouting report

When Michigan has the ball: Simply put, Washington isn't here because of its defense. There are nice pieces like linebackers Edefuan Ulofoshio (90 tackles, three sacks, one interception, one forced fumble), Carson Bruener (80 tackles, one interception, one forced fumble), and defensive back Jabbar Muhammad (44 tackles, three interceptions, two sacks), all of whom were first-team All-Pac-12. Yet this unit doesn't have the talent to match the Alabama squad Michigan just faced. U-M should be able to move the ball through the air against the nation's No. 120 pass defense (263.3 yards allowed per game), and J.J. McCarthy enters with confidence after he completed 17 of 27 passes for 221 yards, three touchdowns and no turnovers in the Rose Bowl.

Any of U-M's pass-catchers — Roman Wilson, Semaj Morgan, Cornelius Johnson or Colston Loveland — could have a big night, but the one person the Wolverines should ride is running back Blake Corum. The program's all-time rushing touchdown leader had 19 rushes for 83 yards and a touchdown (the OT winner in the Rose Bowl), plus two catches for 35 yards. In UW's semifinal matchup, Texas had success on the ground, running 28 times for 180 yards (6.4 yards per carry) and three touchdowns. The longer U-M can control the ball and keep Washington's high-octane offense off the field, the better. Edge: Michigan

When Washington has the ball: Keeping Michael Penix Jr. and company off the field is essentially the game plan to help out Jesse Minter's defense this time around. The Huskies can get up and down in the field in a flash; they rank No. 1 in the nation in passing yards per game (350) No. 10 in total offense (473.6) and scoring offense (37.6 points per game) and No. 16 with 14 yards per completion. One reason Penix is such a threat is his big receivers on the outside: Rome Odunze (87 catches for 1,553 yards and 13 touchdowns), Ja'Lynn Polk (65 catches, 1,122 yards, nine touchdowns) and Jalen McMillan (39 catches, 526 yards, four touchdowns in six games) will be a handful for the U-M secondary.

U-M sacked Alabama's Jalen Milroe six times last week and will have to find a way to get to Penix as well. The ground game is a question, after Washington's standout running back Dillon Johnson was carted off the field late vs. Texas with a knee injury. He is expected to play but not at 100%. Johnson was a first-team All-Pac-12 tailback and has run 222 times for 1,162 yards and 16 scores. The Huskies rarely run the ball — they're 127th in the FBS — and are 102nd in rushing yards per game (123.6 yards) and tied for 55th on a per-carry basis (4.42). Edge: Neither

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Know the foe

Pressure Penix: He may not be the top NFL draft prospect, but few college quarterbacks are as polished. The Wolverines are familiar with Penix, who spent his first four seasons at Indiana, but he has found a different level in two seasons at UW. Penix has completed 66.7% of his passes this season (336 of 504) for 4,648 yards, 35 touchdowns and nine interceptions. His QBR (86.7) was fifth best in the nation and he's particularly dangerous on play-action, where he's completing 74.5% of passes for 13 scores and no interceptions. He can be slightly erratic when the pocket isn't clean; he has completed 45.1% (55 of 122) of passes when under pressure, for five touchdowns and three interceptions.

Fueled by doubt: Penix was runner-up for the Heisman Trophy, and Odunze was runner-up for the Fred Biletnikoff Award (given to the best college wide receiver), a microcosm of Washington's season: Despite being undefeated, the Huskies never climbed higher than No. 4 in the polls until Georgia lost and Florida State suffered a season-changing injury to quarterback Jordan Travis. Even in the Pac-12 title game, against an Oregon team the Huskies had already beaten, UW was a 9½-point underdog. The Huskies have been doubted because they've won 10 straight games by 10 points or less, and the past five by one possession. However, all they've done is keep winning.

Eastern ties: Washington coach Kalen DeBoer, 49, was named AP national coach of the year. Not only is he 14-0 this year, but he was 11-2 last year in Seattle. This is nothing new for DeBoer, who was 67-3 at the NAIA level from 2005-09, as he led Sioux Falls to titles in 2006, '08 and '09. He was the offensive coordinator at Eastern Michigan (2014-16) under coach Chris Creighton and helped turn the Eagles around. They won two games in DeBoer's first year and just one in the second, but went 7-6 in Year 3 to earn a Bahamas Bowl berth, the school's first bowl appearance since 1987. DeBoer has since been to Fresno State as offensive coordinator (2017-18), Indiana in the same role (2019), Fresno State as head coach (2020-21) and then Washington.

Tony Garcia's two cents

Clean it up: The Wolverines did a lot right to nip Alabama in last week's Rose Bowl victory. They also did a lot wrong that nearly cost them. "I have no idea how we won that game," captain Trevor Keegan said afterward. "We can't make that many mistakes again," Braiden McGregor said. Among the miscues: Semaj Morgan and Jake Thaw each muffing a punt, Wilson committing a illegal block in the back, Corum botching a flea-flicker toss that McCarthy had to fall on to recover, a botched PAT attempt and a missed field goal. Michigan needs to do what it has done all year, which is play clean. The Wolverines lead the nation in turnover margin (plus-17) and have committed the fewest penalties (39).

Jim Harbaugh: There is a good chance this is the last game Harbaugh coaches for the Wolverines. There's also a good chance he signs a contract extension this winter. Isn't that funny? Nobody knows other than Harbaugh. He seems to want to go to the NFL, yet has put his sole focus into this team and this season, all to get to this moment. Most would have bailed on Harbaugh after 2020, when he held an 0-5 record vs. OSU and didn't really have a win of consequence on his record, but athletic director Warde Manuel didn't. Harbaugh will continue to be the center of discussion until he either signs an extension or leaves for the NFL, but in the meantime, Monday is a chance for him to cement his legacy at Michigan. Then, he can leave for the NFL, whenever, having fulfilled his ultimate goal.

Prediction

Washington holds the nation's longest winning streak (21 games) and one of its most prolific offenses. But U-M's defense can hold its own vs. Washington's offense, compared to the gap between U-M's offense vs. Washington's defense. It has been a long trek for a Wolverines program that was left for dead three years ago. Instead, Monday night will be the culmination. Michigan will reach the mountaintop, behind Harbaugh, McCarthy, Corum, Michael Barrett, Mike Sainristil and a handful of other players who stayed to play one final season. The pick: Michigan 34, Washington 26.

Contact Tony Garcia: apgarcia@freepress.com. Follow him at @realtonygarcia.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan football vs. Washington: CFP scouting report, prediction