Michigan State football vs. No. 11 Penn State: Scouting report, prediction

Looking ahead to the Spartans’ final game of the season Friday against No. 11 Penn State.

Fast facts

Matchup: Michigan State (4-7, 2-6 Big Ten) vs. No. 11 Penn State (9-2, 6-2).

When: 7:30 p.m. Friday.

Where: Ford Field, Detroit.

TV/radio: NBC, WJR-AM (760).

Line: Nittany Lions by 22½.

Injury report

MSU injuries

Out: C Nick Samac (lower left leg/season), QB Sam Leavitt (redshirt eligibility), RB Jalen Berger (undisclosed/season), TE Tyneil Hopper (lower right leg/season), OL Stanton Ramil (right knee/season), OL Gavin Broscious (left knee/season), RB Jaelon Barbarin (undisclosed/season), RB Joseph Martinez (undisclosed/season), CB Dillon Tatum (undisclosed/season), LB Jacoby Windmon (undisclosed/season), DB Armorion Smith (undisclosed/season), DT Alex VanSumeren (undisclosed/season), LB Ma’a Gaoteote (undisclosed/season).

Doubtful: QB Noah Kim (undisclosed), WR Tre Mosley (left hand), WR Jaron Glover (undisclosed), DE Brandon Wright (lower left leg), DT Maverick Hansen (head). Questionable: RB Nate Carter (undisclosed),OL Cole Dellinger (undisclosed), LB Darius Snow (unspecified), DB Khalil Majeed (undisclosed), DE Andrew Depaepe (undisclosed), DT Dre Butler (right shoulder), DT Jarrett Jackson (undisclosed), DE Bai Jobe (undisclosed), CB Charles Brantley (upper-body), CB Marqui Lowery (undisclosed), DB Semar Melvin (undisclosed), LB Quavian Carter (undisclosed). Probable: DT Simeon Barrow (various), DT Jalen Sami (undisclosed), LB Aaron Brule (right shoulder).

Penn State injuries

Out: DT Alonzo Ford Jr. (undisclosed/season), TE Andre Rappleyea (undisclosed), WR Harrison Wallace III (undisclosed), WR Mason Stahl (undisclosed), WR Jan Mahlert (undisclosed), WR Tyler Johnson (undisclosed), QB Karson Kiesewetter (undisclosed), RB DK Kency (undisclosed), OL Ian Harvie (undisclosed), S Jashaun Green (undisclosed), DE Mason Robinson (undisclosed).

Questionable: QB Drew Allar (shoulder), WR Jason Estrella (undisclosed), WR Feyisayo Oluleye (undisclosed), RB Tyler Holzworth (undisclosed).

Scouting report

When MSU has the ball: Katin Houser is coming off the best game of his young career, throwing for 279 yards while completing 25 of 39 passes, including three touchdowns, in Saturday’s 24-21 victory at Indiana. The redshirt freshman quarterback also threw two interceptions, but used his legs to both stretch the pocket and take off running when pressure arrived. Houser targeted nine different receivers and completed passes to six, including monster days for both Maliq Carr and Montorie Foster. Carr, a junior tight end, had seven catches for 119 yards and two touchdowns, all career highs. Foster also flashed his athleticism with a one-handed catch, juke, spin and dash for a 29-yard TD as part of his career best-tying 94-yard game with seven catches. MSU won’t have starting center Nick Samac, with junior Dallas Fincher getting the start, and the health of running back Nate Carter remains in question. ... PSU ranks second in the Football Bowl Subdivision in total yards allowed (238.7) and first downs allowed (146), third in rushing yards (79.2), fourth in points yielded (12.5) and sixth in passing yards (159.5). It is first in turnover margin (1.6). Linebacker Kobe King leads with 49 tackles, defensive end Adisa Isaac has 6½ sacks among 28 tackles, 13½ of those for lost yardage and nine different Nittany Lions have at least one of their 11 interceptions.

When PSU has the ball: The Spartans allowed 210 yards rushing on 46 carries against the Hoosiers, but only 192 passing yards, the sixth time this season an opponent failed to throw for more than 200 yards against them. MSU is 59th in total defense (370.9 yards), 43rd against the run (139) and 73rd against the pass (231.9). The 27.1 points the Spartans allow ranks 74th. Perhaps the big question is how healthy is Penn State quarterback Drew Allar, who left the Nittany Lions’ 27-6 win over Rutgers on Saturday with an apparent right shoulder injury and did not return. He got hit hard on a run in the third quarter, attempted a pass after that and then exited. Beau Pribula replacing him, running for 71 yards and a TD and completing his only pass for 9 yards. PSU ranks 15th nationally at 36.7 points per game but just 100th in the FBS at 195.4 passing yards per game. The Nittany Lions’ ground game is their strength, with 177.9 rushing yards a game to rank 41st, and they have dominated in time of possession (32:47) to rank ninth in the FBS.

Know the foe

Missing man? Allar accounts for 13.6 points per game, second-most in the Big Ten, and ranks 25th nationally with 21 passing touchdowns with just one interception, completing 197 of 323 throws for 2,044 yards. The 6-foot-5, 242-pound sophomore replaced longtime QB Sean Clifford this season. Pribula, a 6-3, 203-pound redshirt freshman, is more of a runner at this stage, with 311 yards and five scores on 52 carries. He has completed 8 of 18 passes for 90 yards and two TDs in nine games. Allar also is a running threat, with 177 rushing yards and four TDs on 66 attempts, but could be limited if he plays.

Ground and pound: Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton combine to average 118 yards per game and have 13 rushing scores. The two sophomores provide a steady attack and similar builds, with the 5-11, 222-pound Allen rushing for 714 yards on 147 carries with six TDs and the 6-foot, 222-pound Singleton getting the ball 145 times for 584 yards and seven TDs. Singleton also is a threat in the passing game, with 20 catches for 154 yards and a TD. Allen has 11 catches for 64 yards.

Franklin’s mint: James Franklin is in his 10th year at Penn State and owns an 87-38 overall, and a victory Friday would secure his fifth 10-win season with the Nittany Lions. In the past seven seasons, PSU is one of six teams to rank in the top 12 of the College Football Playoff rankings at least five times, along with Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State and Oklahoma. Franklin, 51, is 4-5 against the Spartans in his career and a combined 8-21 against Big Ten East foes MSU, Michigan and Ohio State.

Two cents

Overmatched again? This will be MSU’s fourth game against a team currently ranked in the top 11 of the USA TODAY Coaches Poll. The first three have not gone well for the Spartans. Those three opponents have outscored MSU 128-10 (and 98-3 by halftime) in losses to No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Michigan and No. 5 Washington. Those three also outgained MSU 1,720-625 and had an 82-36 edge in first downs. The Nittany Lions have won three of the past four against the Spartans by a combined score of 129-77, including last year’s 35-16 victory in Happy Valley.

Beautiful Land: Happy 30th birthday to the Land Grant Trophy, which debuted Nov. 27, 1993 in the first Big Ten meeting between MSU and PSU, a 38-37 Nittany Lions victory in East Lansing. The 76.2-pound trophy — a brazen mix of wood, metal and trinkets concocted by legendary coaches George Perles and Joe Paterno to create an end-of-season rivalry — commemorates the two schools’ shared history as pioneer public institutions with agrarian and engineering backgrounds. Penn State has a 17-10 edge since joining the conference, though the Spartans have won six of the past 10 meetings since 2010, their most recent victory in 2021 in East Lansing. Overall, the series that began in 1914 is tied 18-18-1.

Prediction

Give credit to Harlon Barnett for keeping the Spartans together throughout the season, and to him and his staff for finishing strong in November. But MSU’s lack of depth and talent can’t be offset by simply playing hard, and the Nittany Lions pull away in the fourth quarter of a grinding game. The Spartans finish their season 4-8, Barnett’s interim tenure ends, and they await their new coach to be announced sometime in the coming week. The pick: Penn State 27, MSU 14.

Contact Chris Solari: csolari@freepress.com. Follow him @chrissolari.

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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan State football vs. Penn State: Scouting report, prediction