Michigan State basketball vs. Minnesota tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction
• What: Michigan State vs. Minnesota
• When: 6:30 p.m. Thursday
• Where: Breslin Center
• TV/Radio: FS1/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; Sirius/XM Ch. 372 (MSU broadcast), Ch. 380 (Minnesota broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 10-7 overall, 2-4 in Big Ten play and unranked in the Associated Press and Coaches polls. MSU is ranked No. 16 by the analytics site Kenpom.com. Minnesota is 12-5 overall, 3-3 in the Big Ten and unranked by the AP and Coaches. The Gophers are ranked No. 92 by Kenpom.
• Projected vegas line: MSU -11 (via oddsmaker Trevor Darnell)
• Coaches: MSU — Tom Izzo is 697-287 in his 29th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Minnesota — Ben Johnson is 34-44 in his third season as a head coach, all with the Gophers.
• Series: MSU leads 65-58 all-time. The teams did not meet last season. Their only scheduled game was postponed due to the shooting on MSU's campus and then ultimately was not rescheduled.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (22) Mady Sissoko (6-9) 4.8
F (25) Malik Hall (6-8) 10.8
G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 10.8
G (2) Tyson Walker (6-1) 19.9
PG (11) AJ Hoggard (6-4) 11.4
Minnesota
C (3) Dawson Garcia (6-11) 17.4
F (1) Joshua Ola-Joseph (6-7) 11.0
G (26) Cam Christie (6-6) 10.5
G (2) Mike Mitchell (6-2) 10.2
PG (0) Elijah Hawkins (5-11) 8.1
• MSU update: The Spartans are coming a 73-55 home win over Rutgers on Sunday, snapping a two-game losing streak. After Thursday’s home game against Minnesota, they’ll be back on the road for games against Maryland on Sunday and Wisconsin next Friday. MSU ranks 23rd nationally in offensive efficiency and 26th in defensive efficiency, per Kenpom.com. The Spartans' once-abysmal 3-point shooting is now above 36% and in the top 40 nationally (out of 362 teams) and, in the last nine games, they've made better than 43% of their 3-point tries.
Senior Tyson Walker is third in the Big Ten in scoring at 19.9 points per game. His backcourt mate, senior A.J. Hoggard, is third in the league in assists at 5.1 per outing. And the first guard off the bench, sophomore Tre Holloman, leads the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio — and by quite a bit — at 5.7-to-1, averaging 3.4 assists and 0.6 turnovers in 19.9 minutes per game.
• Minnesota update: The Gophers were in a good place about a week ago, having won seven straight games, including Big Ten wins over Nebraska and, more recently, at Michigan and home against Maryland. But Minnesota lost at Indiana last Friday, 74-62, and then Monday at home to Iowa, 86-77. Now the Gophers enter a six-game stretch in which they face Michigan State twice, Wisconsin, Northwestern and Purdue. If they’re going to make a push for an NCAA tournament bid, we’ll know it over the next three weeks. They'll begin that stretch with a couple injuries. Starting point guard Elijah Hawkins sprained an ankle Monday against Iowa and, while he played through it against the Hawkeyes, Gophers coach Ben Johnson told reporters Wednesday that Hawkins is questionable for the game at MSU. As is big man Pharrel Payne, who's been out this week with a back injury. Those are two of Minnesota's primary six players. Hawkins leads the nation in assists at 7.8 per game. Another key player on the Gophers’ roster, freshman Cam Christie, is the brother of former MSU guard Max Christie. Cam has moved into the starting lineup and is averaging better than 10 points per game.
Overall, this has been a good season of needed progress for Johnson’s program. He’s making a dent in recruiting in Minnesota with eight in-state players on the roster, whereas in recent years, players like MSU's Tre Holloman had been getting away. Landing Cam Christie was an important get, too. And there have been significant transfer portal additions, like Hawkins, from Howard, and his backcourt mate, Mike Mitchell, a transfer from Pepperdine.
• Inside the matchup: Hawkins has shown he’s the key to this Minnesota operation. As their 5-11 lead guard goes, so do the Gophers. So a sprained ankle is a considerable issue. Minnesota is 3-5 in its eight games against Kenpom top 100-rated opponents. In the three wins, Hawkins is averaging 12 points, 9 assists and 2.7 turnovers, while shooting 55% from the floor and 57% on 3-pointers. In the five defeats, Hawkins is averaging 7.0 points, 6.2 assists and 3.2 turnovers, while shooting 26% overall and 23% from 3. If the Spartans can make him struggle, they’ll win comfortably. MSU has the guards to give Hawkins fits, but, when healthy, he can scoot.
Dawson Garcia is one of the better players in the Big Ten and a difficult matchup for MSU’s big men, because he’s a 6-11 forward who can score backing you down or by putting he ball on the floor and driving it. He’s also a decent passer. Minnesota sometimes doesn't play through him enough. Matchup-wise, Garcia isn’t a great one for the Spartans’ centers, because he’s really not a center. Where the Gophers are collectively dangerous is when Hawkins, Mitchell and Christie get going from long range. Forward Joshua Ola-Joseph doesn’t shoot a ton from out there, but he’s close to 50% when he does. Other than Payne, who plays major minutes when healthy, there aren’t any Gophers among their usual top six that MSU's defense won’t have to deal with a ways out from the basket. Minnesota is a streaky shooting team. It's wise not to let them get going.
RELATED: Couch: How much older is Big Ten basketball? A lot. And Michigan State leads the way
• Prediction: I like the direction of Minnesota’s program. This is now a capable team. And because the Gophers can shoot, they’re more dangerous to the Spartans than Penn State or Rutgers. If Hawkins is limited by that ankle sprain, the Gophers are in trouble. Either way, this is the sort of game MSU should win by double digits at home if the Spartans are dialed in on both ends — and if they’re a team worth taking seriously.
• Make it: MSU 77, Minnesota 67
MORE: Couch: Michigan State's women's basketball team is playing with a style and joy that's worth seeing
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball vs. Minnesota: Prediction, preview, TV, betting line
