Michigan football game-by-game predictions for 2023 season
At long last, it's time for Michigan football.
The nine-month hiatus from January to September always feels a lengthy one, but perhaps this year it felt even longer for the Wolverines. Jim Harbaugh's program is 25-3 in the past two seasons, with two wins over rival Ohio State and two Big Ten championships to show for it.
However, Michigan has lost consecutive College Football Playoff semifinals, including last season's 51-45 defeat to TCU, despite being favored by a touchdown. Since that New Year's Eve in Glendale, Arizona, when quarterback J.J. McCarthy answered two postgame media questions before he walked off the stage, Michigan has put all of its energy and attention toward getting back to that moment.
The goal is a national championship in Ann Arbor. Will Michigan get the chance?
Here’s a game-by-game prediction for the Wolverines’ 2023 regular season:
Saturday: vs. East Carolina
Last season: Did not play (East Carolina finished 8-5).
The buzz: East Carolina is in the new-look American Athletic Conference with as many questions as almost anybody. No. 1 — who will replace five-year starting quarterback Holton Ahlers? Last season, he led ECU to its best finish since 2014, propelled by 1,000-yard receivers Isaiah Winstead and C.J. Johnson. They’re both gone and in case that wasn’t enough, running back Keaton Mitchell, who ran for nearly 1,500 yards and had 14 scores, is gone as well. It’s going to be a learning season for the Pirates and opening on the road at U-M is brutal start.
The pick: U-M wins, 61-7.
Sept. 9: UNLV
Last meeting: U-M won, 28-7, in 2015.
The buzz: Scheduling happens years in advance and there’s no controlling seasons when a program is up or down (see ECU last year vs. this year) ... but UNLV has been a perennial doormat. The Rebels own one winning season since 2000 and two since 1994. Now, it’s up to first-year coach Barry Odom — who spent the past three years as Arkansas’ defensive coordinator — to try and change it. There’s at least one player on the other sideline who will be comfortable in the Big House: Receiver Ricky White, a transfer from MSU, who caught eight passes for 196 yards and a score in a 27-24 upset of Michigan in 2020. That will not be the case this time.
The pick: U-M, 55-3.
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Sept. 16: vs. Bowling Green
Last meeting: U-M won, 65-7, in 2010.
The buzz: Going 6-7 and making a bowl game last season — the Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit — was notable for Bowling Greenas the program's first since 2015. Compared to the first three years (7-23) of the Scot Loeffler era, it was a success, but Bowling Green appears to still be a mid-level MAC team this season. Quarterback Connor Bazelak, who you may remember from Indiana or Missouri, is surrounded by top target Odieu Hiliare and shifty tailback Ta’ron Keith. But the Falcons don’t have anybody who can hold up in the trenches on either side.
The pick: U-M, 48-6.
Sept. 23: vs. Rutgers
Last meeting: U-M won, 52-17, in 2017.
The buzz: The Scarlet Knights have a new offensive coordinator in Kirk Ciarrocca, and he can only take an offense that ranked near the bottom of 130 FBS-level teams — averaging 13 points (128th nationally) and 254.5 yards (130th) per game — upward. Gavin Wimsatt appears to have won the quarterback job, but even with running back Samuel Brown V returning to health, there isn't enough talent after losing the top three pass catchers from a season ago. The defense, led by edge Aaron Lewis and linebacker Tyreem Powell, will be solid, however, thanks to its speed.
The pick: U-M, 54-13.
Sept. 30: at Nebraska
Last meeting: U-M won, 34-3, in 2022.
The buzz: Nebraska, with new coach Matt Rhule, will replace quarterback Casey Thompson (transferred to FAU), with Georgia Tech transfer Jeff Sims, who adds a nice element with his legs. The Huskers return running back Anthony Brown behind an improved offensive line that includes Ben Scott, U-M lineman LaDarius Henderson’s former teammate at Arizona State. Nebraska returns its three leading tacklers — linebacker Luke Reimer, defensive back Myles Farmer and nickel back Isaac Gifford. This one looks a lot like 2022's matchup in Ann Arbor did: Closer than it probably should be at halftime before the running game drops the hammer.
The pick: U-M, 37-16.
Oct. 7: at Minnesota
Last meeting: U-M won, 49-24, in 2020.
The buzz: It’s a new-look Golden Gophers squad after the departure of two six-year players for P.J. Fleck, quarterback Tanner Morgan and running back Mohamed Ibrahim (the leading rushing in Gophers history). It’s Athan Kaliakmanis’ turn at QB; he picked up some experience late last season while Morgan was injured and completed 54.1% of his passes for 946 yards, three touchdowns and four interceptions. His top target, receiver Chris Autman-Bell, is back at full health going down for the season in 2022's Week 3, while tight end Brevyn Spann-Ford could be one of the best in the Big Ten West. The Gophers got a boost from Western Michigan transfer Corey Crooms, who hauled in 57 catches for 814 yards a season ago. They're going back to the Broncos well with the addition of running back Sean Tyler, who comes off consecutive seasons topping 1,000 yards rushing at WMU.
The pick: U-M, 44-20.
Oct. 14: vs. Indiana
Last meeting: U-M won, 31-10, in 2022.
The buzz: The Hoosiers' brief run of consecutive winning seasons — 2019 and 2020 — is long gone, with Indiana going 6-18 across the past two seasons (and just two wins against teams not from Idaho or Kentucky). The Hoosiers brought in Bob Bostad from Wisconsin to coach the offensive line, hoping to pave the way for former U-M running back Christian Turner, who actually arrives from Wake Forest. The familiarity goes both ways: U-M has two former Hoosier captains on its roster in tight end AJ Barner and quarterback Jack Tuttle. You can bet Harbaugh will find a way for both to try and find the end zone.
The pick: U-M, 41-13.
Oct. 21: at Michigan State
Last meeting: U-M won, 29-7, in 2022.
The buzz: The high in East Lansing from an 11-2 season in 2021 came crashing down with a 5-7 season a year ago. The Spartans have a lot to prove, as they'll need to replace starting quarterback Payton Thorne (who transferred and won the job at Auburn) and their top two receivers from 2022, Jayden Reed (NFL) and Keon Coleman (Florida State). There will be emotions running wild in this one, following last season's tunnel fight and the potential for the first-ever night game in East Lansing between these teams.
The pick: U-M, 35-19.
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Nov. 4: vs. Purdue
Last meeting: U-M won, 43-22, in 2022 Big Ten championship game.
The buzz: It's the Boilermakers' first visit to Ann Arbor since 2011, though the two sides have matched up three times since then — twice in West Lafayette (2012 and 2017) and last year in Indianapolis. This Purdue team, however, is not that West-winning team, with a new head coach (former Illinois defensive coordinator Ryan Walters), a new quarterback (Hudson Card, a transfer from Texas) and a new offensive coordinator (Graham Harrell, raised in Mike Leach's Air Raid offense though his West Virginia squad ran a balanced attack in 2022). It will be a rebuilding year at Purdue.
The pick: U-M, 41-17.
Nov. 11: at Penn State
Last meeting: U-M won, 41-17, in 2022.
The buzz: This, not the Ohio State game, is the hardest matchup of the schedule, as the Nittany Lions are the other Big Ten team that can match the Wolverines pound-for-pound and punch-for-punch. Michigan's previous visit to Happy Valley nearly derailed the 2021 Big Ten title run. Both teams this season are a sizable step up from that clash. On offense, sophomore quarterback Drew Allar is protected by arguably the best left tackle in America, Olu Fashanu. He also has a formidable one-two running back tandem in Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton. On defense, edge Chop Robinson and defensive Kalen King (Detroit Cass Tech) are All-American talents at defensive coordinator Manny Diaz’s disposal. Expect a field goal late to be the difference.
The pick: Penn State, 22-20.
Nov. 18: at Maryland
Last meeting: U-M won, 34-27, in 2022.
The buzz: A trap game, in between Penn State and Ohio State? Maryland coach Mike Locksley spoke at Big Ten media days in July about competing for a Big Ten East championship, something he pointed out he’d never brought up before this season. Yes, Maryland is trending up, coming off a two-year stretch with the program's most wins since 2002-03 and five NFL draft picks last season. The Terrapins, led by big-bodied receivers and quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, gave the Wolverines real trouble in Ann Arbor last year. It'll be a different story in College Park, and no trap whatsoever.
The pick: U-M, 37-13.
Nov. 25: vs. Ohio State
Last meeting: U-M won, 45-23, in 2022.
The buzz: Michigan has not won three straight in this rivalry game since 1995-97 — that final season brought a national championship after closing the regular season with a single-score victory over the Buckeyes. Ohio State and Ryan Day should be undefeated heading into this showdown, with possibly a top-two ranking in the polls. Whoever wins the QB competition — either Kyle McCord or Devin Brown — won’t be a newbie coming it; he'll have nearly a year’s worth of experience, like McCarthy did when he led U-M to a three-touchdown win in Columbus last season. Expect a slugfest this time, which suits U-M's ground game just fine.
The pick: U-M, 34-28.
Final record: 11-1.
Contact Tony Garcia at apgarcia@freepress.com. Follow him on X at @realtonygarcia.
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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan football every game predictions for 2023 season
