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Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Who has the edge?

david furones, south florida sun-sentinel
·6 min read

Here’s a look at how the Miami Dolphins (6-2) and Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) match up in six key areas ahead of Sunday’s Week 9 game at Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt, Germany (9:30 a.m., NFL Network, NBC-6 in Miami Dade and Broward counties):

When the Dolphins run: Miami’s run game is cooling off without rookie phenom De’Von Achane in the lineup, but it’s also a byproduct of the past couple of run defenses the Dolphins have faced. The Dolphins haven’t eclipsed 100 yards rushing as a team in two consecutive games — against the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles — after reeling off five consecutive such efforts in five games before that, including 222 yards against the New York Giants and 350 yards against the Denver Broncos.

Running back Raheem Mostert is nursing an ankle injury that’s again causing him to sit early in the week of practice, missing Wednesday’s drills in Frankfurt. He was contained to 46 yards on 13 attempts in last Sunday’s win over the Patriots. Jeff Wilson Jr. could start to see more action, as he was up to five carries for 23 yards vs. the Patriots. Achane still has this week that he’s forced to sit while on injured reserve.

The Dolphins offensive line could get reinforcements. Center Connor Williams appears on track to play, but right guard Robert Hunt is missing practice early in the week. Left tackle Terron Armstead would provide a major boost in run blocking, but it could be a tough ask to have him go out there on one week of practice after missing four on IR with his latest knee injury. The Chiefs are more vulnerable on the ground than they are through the air, ranked 19th against the run. But All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones is a beast. The Chiefs, however, are without middle linebacker Nick Bolton, on IR for a wrist injury, and outside linebacker Willie Gay, also a strong run defender, missed practice Wednesday. Edge: Dolphins

When the Chiefs run: The Kansas City run game is more about providing balance and a complement for quarterback Patrick Mahomes, largely considered the best in the game. It’s not to be feared in itself so much, but Isiah Pacheco, after bursting onto the scene last season for the Super Bowl champs, has become a reliable, elusive workhorse and is averaging 4.3 yards per rush.

Center Creed Humphrey anchors that offensive line, and left guard Joe Thuney is a fellow Pro Bowler. Defensive tackles Christian Wilkins and Zach Sieler will offer some resistance in the trenches for a run defense that’s 17th. Inside linebacker David Long Jr. has also gotten better within defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s scheme as the weeks have progressed. But what does Miami get out of nose tackle Raekwon Davis? Edge: Even

When the Dolphins pass: Just like it’s the No. 1 rushing offense for Miami, it’s also the No. 1 passing offense. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s top competition for MVP right now is Mahomes, and a head-to-head win could go a long way in giving him an edge. But, as Tagovailoa will always remind you, he’s not facing Mahomes; he’s facing the Chiefs defense.

And let’s begin with the pass rush for the Chiefs. Jones brings the interior pressure like the best of them, with 5 1/2 sacks. On the edges, George Karlaftis III and Michael Danna are right there with 6 and 5 1/2, respectively. A return for Armstead, as he practices this week in Germany, on the left side could curtail half of that. Right tackle Austin Jackson will have to contain Karlaftis. Jones requires double teams, most likely. Tagovailoa will have to use his quick release at times against a defense that’s tied for second in sacks.

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Kansas City’s overall pass defense is also ranked second, but Miami is coming off a game where receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle each had 100-yard outings — that when the Patriots didn’t allow one receiver to do that against them entering that game. Cornerbacks L’Jarius Sneed on the boundary and Trent McDuffie covering the slot are formidable, but they’ll have their hands full. Hill, who faces his former team, and Waddle will win some matchups. The key will be if Miami’s pass protection — good in all its wins, bad in its two losses — can hold up against the KC pass rush. Edge: Even

When the Chiefs pass: Mahomes is All-World. Everybody knows that. Even when he’s pressured, he’s creative in how he eludes defenders and even how he delivers balls through lanes and windows that aren’t supposed to be there. Even as he’s thrown eight interceptions — Tagovailoa has thrown seven — you know he’s going to be solid.

Of his pass catchers, the top priority is tight end Travis Kelce, and it’s not even close. Kelce has 54 receptions for 583 yards and four touchdowns through seven games. The receivers you don’t worry about as much, but Mahomes still finds them, along with Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon out of the backfield. It’ll be interesting to see what Fangio decides to do against Kelce. It’ll likely be different looks that could involve bracketed zone coverages, safeties, linebackers and maybe cornerback Jalen Ramsey, now that he’s got a game under his belt and looked good in it. It also helps that safety Jevon Holland returns from a one-game absence in concussion protocol.

While the Dolphins rank highly in sacks, quarterback hits and pressures, the Chiefs are No. 1 in avoiding sacks, with just 10 in eight games. That’s despite Jawaan Taylor’s struggles this season at right tackle. It’s the Mahomes effect, in large part. Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips will have to get after him, along with Wilkins and the pass rush he has added to his game, while not losing containment. Edge: Even

Special teams: Jason Sanders has been making his recent kicks. Jake Bailey has to get over maybe having one bad punt a game. Braxton Berrios has been solid in the return game, while coverage units still sometimes let one slip.

Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker is perfect on the season, with 18 field goal makes and 19 extra points. Tommy Townsend’s a good punter, too. With Mecole Hardman back in Kansas City, he gives them a blazer in the return game. Edge: Chiefs

Intangibles: The Chiefs lost a home game. They’d be at Arrowhead Stadium and, instead, face the Dolphins on a neutral site across the Atlantic Ocean. Plus, Miami is known to have a strong fan base overseas, although the defending Super Bowl champs likely draw interest in Germany, too. Kansas City has more experience playing in big games, but the Dolphins can take lessons learned from losses to the Eagles and Bills. Edge: Dolphins

PREDICTION: Dolphins 27, Chiefs 24