Memphis football vs. North Texas: Scouting report, score prediction
Memphis football returns to Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium to host North Texas in the Tigers' second afternoon game of the season.
Memphis (2-1, 1-0 AAC) is going for a third consecutive win Saturday (2:30 p.m., ESPN+) as the Tigers are on the second game of a four-game homestand. North Texas (2-2, 1-0 CUSA) lost last week, 58-27 at UNLV.
The game will be the first meeting between the schools since the 2003 New Orleans Bowl. It won't be the last as North Texas joins the AAC next season.
Here's our scouting report along with a prediction.
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Expect big plays
Both Memphis and North Texas have offenses capable of putting up big numbers. Memphis does it through the air and North Texas has thrived on the ground, ranking 26th in rushing offense.
The Tigers lead the nation with seven passing plays of at least 40 yards and North Texas isn’t far behind with five. North Texas is also third nationally with 10 passing plays of at least 30 yards.
North Texas also leads the nation with 32 runs of at least 10 yards. So expect both teams to try to get yards in chunks in what could be a high-scoring game.
Defense more lean than mean
North Texas giving up 58 points to UNLV last week should make Memphis fans salivate a bit. The Mean Green are ranked as one of the nation’s worst defenses and also allowed SMU to rack up 576 yards earlier this season.
North Texas is 122nd in passing defense – 12 spots behind Memphis and giving up 8.5 yards per attempt, slightly fewer than the Tigers (8.8). It gets rougher stopping the run as the Mean Green are 126th in rushing defense and gave up 365 rushing yards to UNLV.
It could be easy pickings for the Tigers through the air. Could it also be the game where the rushing attack gains momentum? Maybe so, and the Tigers might threaten another 40-point outing if things go right.
Players to watch
At 29 years old, North Texas quarterback Austin Aune is the oldest non-specialist starter in FBS this season. The Argyle, Texas, native is a former professional baseball player who spent six years in the Yankees organization. The Mean Green also boast an experienced offensive line that’s played 147 games, led by senior center Manase Mose.
But the best player might be senior linebacker KD Davis. Davis had 121 tackles last season and has 33 through four games this year. He’s a hard hitter with great sideline-to-sideline speed and was singled out by Tigers coach Ryan Silverfield as the best linebacker he’s seen so far this season.
Turnover opportunities
Memphis didn’t record an interception last week against Arkansas State but the Tigers might find more opportunities with North Texas.
North Texas has thrown five interceptions, including two games with multiple interceptions. The Mean Green don’t throw the ball a lot – 29.3 attempts per game is fewer than Tigers’ 31.0 – but they’re turnover prone. That could be a gift for a Tigers secondary that already has three interceptions.
Meanwhile, Memphis quarterback Seth Henigan has yet to throw an interception through three games. Speaking of him …
Henigan Record Alert
Henigan’s still miles away from most of the Memphis passing records. But the sophomore could tie one record Saturday night.
Henigan already has three games with at least 400 passing yards, and his next one will tie Riley Ferguson’s program record with four. It’s also worth noting North Texas also has given up eight passing plays of at least 30 yards, which is tied for 120th nationally.
However, North Texas has only allowed one of its four opponents – SMU – to reach 400 passing yards. If Memphis continues its balanced passing attack, Henigan could be in line for another big day and move up the record books.
Prediction
Memphis 38, North Texas 28: The Tigers are 12½-point favorites as of this writing, but they won’t cover the spread this week. That said, the Tigers should find a way to win because they have too much firepower for the Mean Green. North Texas will probably get a big play or two but turnovers will hurt them as much as Seth Henigan’s arm.
This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Memphis football score prediction vs. North Texas: Scouting report
