Will Marvin Harrison, Jr. be the first receiver drafted?

For months, it has been assumed that Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison, Jr. will be the first player taken at his position in the 2024 draft. Will that happen?

Chris Simms has Harrison at No. 3, behind LSU receiver Malik Nabers and LSU receiver Brian Thomas Jr. There's chatter that multiple teams have Harrison behind Nabers, too.

For Simms, the issue is explosiveness and separation. Nabers and Thomas can get past defensive backs better and more consistently than Harrison.

But Harrison has long been perceived to be the best receiver in the class. His name has helped reinforce the perception; his dad, if you haven't heard of him, is a Hall of Fame receiver.

The question becomes whether someone will indeed put Nabers (or Thomas) on the card before Harrison. It's one thing to see things in Nabers (or Thomas) that are more attractive on film. It's another thing to pass on Harrison.

There's a real CYA element when it comes to the draft. Some teams will go with a safer pick, in the event the player who is picked doesn't work out, or that the player who isn't picked works out better. With Harrison, there's safety in the longstanding perception that he's the guy. If a team pivots to Nabers — and if Harrison ends up being better than Nabers — there will be some tough questions from the powers that be.

That's a real concern, unrelated to how good a player seems to be on film or otherwise. Harrison's decision not to work out at the Scouting Combine or the Ohio State Pro Day workout takes one key objective piece of information out of the mix: his time in the 40-yard dash.

If Harrison had run slower than expected, that could have given a G.M. who takes Nabers an extra layer of protection. Without any time in the 40 attached to Harrison's name, he still benefits from the presumption that he's the top receiver.

That might be why he chose not to run (or otherwise work out). It wasn't going to help him. It quite possibly could have hurt him. And it could have given a G.M. one extra tangible piece of evidence to point to if/when the owner of the team that possibly takes Nabers over Harrison has pointed questions, if Nabers eventually busts and Harrison eventually booms.

The most basic reality of the draft is that we just don't know, and won't know, until it's time to suit up and play at the NFL level. For any of the players who are picked. Thus, every G.M. who uses significant draft capital on a player who doesn't work out needs to have a damn good explanation when the stuff hits the fan, or the G.M. risks hitting the road.