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March Madness predictions: Projecting NCAA Tournament bracket for Big 12 basketball teams

craig meyer, usa today network
·9 min read

Saturday signifies an important date in the 2023-24 college basketball season: One month from then, Selection Sunday will determine the final 68-team bracket for the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

March Madness is slowly, surely approaching.

Questions remain on where teams will fall in the seeding of the final NCAA Tournament brackets (if not entirely out of the tournament). That's true even of the deepest conference in major college basketball: The Big 12, which boasts two of the last three NCAA Tournament champions after a drought that reached back to 2008.

REQUIRED READING: Kansas basketball suffers lopsided defeat on road in Big 12 Conference play at Texas Tech

As has historically been the case, the Big 12 is well-represented throughout early March Madness bracket projections, including Baylor and Kansas (winners of the 2021 and 2022 tournaments, respectively), but also in newcomers such as Houston and BYU.

As we enter the final weeks of the 2023-24 regular season, here’s a look at where the Big 12 might fit into the field if the season ended today:

2024 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions

Note: this projection does not take into account games that took place on Tuesday, February 13.

** Participating in a play-in game

Last four in:

  • Mississippi State

  • Butler

  • Nebraska

  • Cincinnati

First four out:

  • Utah

  • Wake Forest

  • Gonzaga

  • St. John’s

No. 1 seeds

  • UConn (22-2, 12-1 Big East): NET No. 4 | KenPom No. 3

  • Purdue (22-2, 11-2 Big Ten): NET No. 2 | KenPom No. 2

  • Houston (21-3, 8-3 Big 12): NET No. 1 | KenPom No. 1

  • Arizona (19-5, 10-3 Pac-12): NET No. 3 | KenPom No. 4

Houston was outplayed and carved up defensively against Kansas earlier this month at Allen Fieldhouse, getting bested in a way few, if any, have been able to do against them this season. Outside of that, though, the Cougars have performed incredibly well in their first season in the sport's deepest and most challenging conference.

No. 2 seeds

  • Tennessee (17-6, 7-3 SEC): NET No. 6 | KenPom No. 7

  • North Carolina (19-5, 11-2 ACC): NET No. 10 | KenPom No. 8

  • Marquette (18-5, 9-3 Big East): NET No. 11 | KenPom No. 10

  • Iowa State (18-5, 7-3 Big 12): NET No. 9 | KenPom No. 9

Outside of Houston, Iowa State is the only Big 12 team in the top 10 of both of the major metrics. The Cyclones have fared well recently during a difficult stretch in their schedule, winning five of their past six games, highlighted by a home victory against Kansas. Their lone loss during that run came by two on the road against Baylor.

No. 3 seeds

  • Kansas (19-6, 7-5 Big 12): NET No. 17 | KenPom No. 18

  • Alabama (17-7, 9-2 SEC): NET No. 5 | KenPom No. 6

  • Auburn (19-5, 8-3 SEC): NET No. 7 | KenPom No. 5

  • Baylor (17-6, 6-4 Big 12) NET No. 12 | KenPom No. 14

Kansas was widely projected as a No. 2 seed heading into the week, but was throttled on the road against Texas Tech, 79-50, on Monday. The defeat was their first loss of at least 20 points to an unranked team since 2014, dropping Kansas to 4-4 over its past eight games.

Elsewhere in the Big 12, Baylor very nearly knocked off the Jayhawks in Allen Fieldhouse, but saw their three-game win streak come to an end in a 64-61 loss last Saturday. While improved on that end of the floor from last season, the Bears still struggle defensively at times, ranking 67th among 362 Division I teams in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.

No. 4 seeds

  • Illinois (17-6, 8-4 Big Ten): NET No. 13 | KenPom No. 11

  • Duke (19-5, 10-3 ACC): NET No. 16 | KenPom No. 13

  • South Carolina (21-3, 9-2 SEC): NET No. 45 | KenPom No. 45

  • Dayton (19-4, 9-2 Atlantic 10): NET No. 18 | KenPom: 24

REQUIRED READING: Kansas State basketball fails to land knockout punch against BYU

No. 5 seeds

  • Creighton (17-7, 8-5 Big East): NET No. 15 | KenPom No. 16

  • Wisconsin (16-8, 8-5 Big Ten): NET No. 21 | KenPom No. 17

  • BYU (17-6, 5-5 Big 12): NET No. 8 | KenPom No. 12

  • San Diego State (18-6, 7-4 Mountain West): NET No. 19 | KenPom No. 20

Much like Houston — another team named the Cougars — BYU has performed admirably in its maiden voyage in the Big 12. The Cougars have a chance this week to improve their national ranking and NCAA Tournament seeding outlook with games against UCF and Oklahoma State, two of the bottom four teams in the league standings.

No. 6 seeds

  • Saint Mary’s (20-6, 11-0 West Coast): NET No. 14 | KenPom No. 23

  • Kentucky (16-7, 6-4 SEC): NET No. 25 | KenPom No. 28

  • Texas Tech (17-6, 6-4 Big 12): NET No. 26 | KenPom No. 21

  • Florida Atlantic (19-5, 9-2 American Athletic): NET No. 27 | KenPom No. 30

What a difference a year (and a new coach) makes. After a disappointing 16-16 mark last season, which was followed by the decision to replace Mark Adams with Grant McCasland, the Red Raiders are back among the top 25 teams nationally. They've improved significantly on the offensive end, ranking 10th nationally in offensive efficiency, according to KenPom, after finishing 60th last season.

No. 7 seeds

  • Colorado State (19-5, 7-4 Mountain West): NET No. 28 | KenPom No. 32

  • Clemson (16-7, 6-6 ACC): NET No. 30 | KenPom No. 31

  • Oklahoma (18-6, 6-5 Big 12): NET No. 31 | KenPom No. 25

  • Utah State (20-4, 8-3 Mountain West): NET No. 29 | KenPom: 40

Oklahoma over a month ago was in a much more enviable position, with a 13-1 record following a home victory against Iowa State. Since then, the Sooners are 5-5. Silver lining: All but one of those losses came against teams projected to make the NCAA Tournament field.

No. 8 seeds

  • Virginia (19-5, 10-3 ACC): NET No. 32 | KenPom No. 48

  • Texas (16-8, 5-6 Big 12): NET No. 34 | KenPom: No. 26

  • Texas A&M (15-8, 6-4 SEC): NET No. 37 | KenPom No. 39

  • Michigan State (15-9, 7-6 Big Ten): NET No. 23 | KenPom No. 15

Will Texas' final season in the Big 12 produce an NCAA Tournament berth? Given some of the talent they Longhorns have accrued in the transfer portal over the past two offseasons, and after earning a top-20 preseason ranking, failing to do so would be a considerable disappointment.

No. 9 seeds

  • New Mexico (19-5, 7-4 Mountain West): NET No. 22 | KenPom No. 22

  • Florida (16-7, 6-4 SEC): NET No. 33 | KenPom No. 27

  • Indiana State (22-3, 13-1 Missouri Valley): NET No. 20 | KenPom No. 38

  • Northwestern (17-7, 8-5 Big Ten): NET No. 50 | KenPom No. 56

No. 10 seeds

  • TCU (16-7, 5-5 Big 12): NET No. 42 | KenPom No. 36

  • Washington State (18-6, 9-4 Pac-12): NET No. 40 | KenPom No. 41

  • Boise State (16-8, 7-4 Mountain West): NET No. 48 | KenPom No. 54

  • Ole Miss (18-5, 5-5 SEC): NET No. 59 | KenPom No. 60

Jamie Dixon has turned TCU into something it hadn't been in generations prior to his arrival back at his alma mater in 2016: a relatively consistent NCAA Tournament presence. Right now, the Horned Frogs just sneak into the field, with a 16-point win Monday night against West Virginia snapping a two-game losing streak.

No. 11 seeds

  • Nevada (19-5, 6-4 Mountain West): NET No. 47 | KenPom No. 46

  • Mississippi State (16-8, 5-6 SEC): NET No. 36 | KenPom No. 35

  • Butler (16-8, 7-6 Big East): NET No. 50 | KenPom No. 49

  • Grand Canyon (22-2, 12-1 Western Athletic): NET No. 44 | KenPom No. 53

  • Nebraska (17-8, 7-7 Big Ten)**: NET No. 53 | KenPom No. 51

  • Cincinnati (15-8, 4-6 Big 12)**: NET No. 35 | KenPom No. 33

Of the four teams in their first season in the Big 12, three are projected to make this 68-team field. In Cincinnati's case, the Bearcots just got in. Moving forward, they'll have little, if any, margin for error after a 12-2 start to the season that was aided by a horrid non-conference schedule. It has been followed by losses in six of their past nine games.

No. 12 seeds

  • McNeese (21-3, 10-1 Southland): NET No. 57 | KenPom No. 68

  • Samford (22-3, 11-1 Southern): NET No. 64 | KenPom No. 72

  • Richmond (17-6, 9-1 Atlantic 10): NET No. 70 | KenPom No. 80

  • UC Irvine (18-7, 11-2 Big West): NET No. 74 | KenPom No. 75

No. 13 seeds

  • Yale (16-6, 7-0 Ivy): NET No. 83 | KenPom No. 89

  • Akron (18-6, 10-1 Mid-American): NET No. 89 | KenPom No. 95

  • South Florida (17-5, 10-1 American Athletic): NET No. 103 | KenPom No. 112

  • UNC Wilmington (18-6, 9-3 Colonial Athletic): NET No. 101 | KenPom No. 102

No. 14 seeds

  • Morehead State (20-5, 11-1 Ohio Valley): NET No. 102 | KenPom No. 110

  • High Point (21-5, 10-1 Big South): NET No. 107 | KenPom No. 113

  • Vermont (19-6, 9-1 America East): NET No. 113 | KenPom No. 114

  • Eastern Washington (16-8, 10-1 Big Sky): NET No. 114 | KenPom No. 125

No. 15 seeds

  • Colgate (17-8, 11-1 Patriot): NET No. 132 | KenPom No. 141

  • Troy (17-8, 10-2 Sun Belt): NET No. 133 | KenPom No. 129

  • Quinnipiac (19-5, 11-2 Metro Atlantic Athletic): NET No. 152 | KenPom No. 181

  • Green Bay (17-9, 12-3 Horizon): NET No. 174 | KenPom No. 183

No. 16 seeds

  • South Dakota State (14-11, 7-3 Summit): NET No. 167 | KenPom No. 163

  • Sam Houston State (13-11, 6-3 Conference USA): NET No. 196 | KenPom No. 185

  • Eastern Kentucky (13-11, 9-2 ASUN): NET No. 208 | KenPom No. 191

  • Central Connecticut State (15-9, 9-2 Northeast): NET No. 226 | KenPom No. 251

  • North Carolina Central (13-9, 5-2 Mid-Eastern Athletic)**: NET No. 268 | KenPom No. 262

  • Grambling State (11-12, 8-2 Southwestern Athletic)**: NET No. 312 | KenPom No. 301

This article originally appeared on Topeka Capital-Journal: March Madness predictions: 2024 NCAA Tournament bracketology for Big 12