Advertisement

March Madness predictions 2.0: Projecting NCAA Tournament bracket for Big 12 basketball teams

craig meyer, usa today network
·9 min read

Yet again, the NCAA Tournament is setting up to have a sizable Big 12 presence.

What is widely regarded as the best conference in the sport this year is in position to get more than half of its expanded 14-team lineup into March Madness brackets this season, with several of the league's top squads firmly in the national championship conversation. On Monday, seven Big 12 teams were in the updated top 25 of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.

No. 2 Houston has acclimated to the league exceptionally in its first season as a member, and is well-positioned to earn a No. 1 seed in the tournament. No. 6 Iowa State is tied with Houston atop the conference standings. No. 10 Kansas is only 1 1/2 games behind from earning yet another conference regular-season crown, while No. 11 Baylor has realistic aspirations of making its second Final Four in the past four seasons. No. 21 BYU, No. 23 Texas Tech and No. 25 TCU are all ranked, while Oklahoma and Texas will look to crash the Big Dance in their final season in the Big 12.

REQUIRED READING: NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Committee projects Kansas as No. 2 seed in tournament

With only a few weeks remaining until Selection Sunday, here’s a look at the updated 68-team field and where Big 12 teams fit in that projection:

2024 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions

Note: These projections do not take into account games that took place on Monday, Feb. 19.

** Participating in a play-in game

Last four in

  • Texas A&M

  • Nebraska

  • Gonzaga

  • Providence

First four out

  • Seton Hall

  • Butler

  • Pitt

  • Colorado

No. 1 seeds

  • UConn (24-2, 14-1 Big East): NET No. 4 | KenPom No. 3

  • Houston (22-3, 9-3 Big 12): NET No. 1 | KenPom No. 1

  • Purdue (23-3, 12-3 Big Ten): NET No. 2 | KenPom No. 3

  • Arizona (20-5, 11-3 Pac-12): NET No. 3 | KenPom No. 4

Though reigning national champion UConn is No. 1 in both of the human polls, Houston is the top team in both of the two major metrics. The Cougars have won eight of their past nine games, most recently earning victories against Cincinnati on the road and Texas at home. Only Kansas has managed to score at least 70 points in regulation this season against Houston, which is No. 1 on KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency.

No. 2 seeds

  • Tennessee (19-6, 9-3 SEC): NET No. 6 | KenPom No. 5

  • North Carolina (20-6, 12-3 ACC): NET No. 9 | KenPom No. 10

  • Iowa State (20-5, 9-3 Big 12): NET No. 8 | KenPom No. 9

  • Alabama (18-7, 10-2 SEC): NET No. 5 | KenPom No. 6

After a disappointing one-and-done appearance in last year's tournament, the Cyclones are poised for a deeper run in 2024. Iowa State is on a similar run to Houston, having won seven of its past eight games, though a marquee matchup awaits with the Cougars on Monday. After that, three of its final five regular-season games are at home, where it's undefeated this season.

No. 3 seeds

  • Marquette (19-6, 10-4 Big East): NET No. 14 | KenPom No. 14

  • Kansas (20-6, 8-5 Big 12): NET No. 16 | KenPom No. 17

  • Baylor (19-6, 8-4 Big 12): NET No. 11 | KenPom No. 12

  • Duke (20-5, 11-3 ACC): NET No. 17 | KenPom No. 11

With the Jayhawks and Bears on the 3 seed line, the Big 12 has four of the top 12 teams in the tournament field. Kansas has been a 1- or 2-seed in 11 of the past 13 tournaments and could very well rise up to one of those spots in the weeks to come — but it's just 7-5 in its past 12 games. After a season-worst three-game losing streak, Baylor has won five of its past six, which has included wins against ranked Iowa State and Texas Tech teams.

No. 4 seeds

  • Illinois (19-6, 10-4 Big Ten): NET No. 11 | KenPom No. 8

  • Auburn (20-6, 9-4 SEC): NET No. 7 | KenPom No. 7

  • Creighton (19-7, 10-5 Big East): NET No. 13 | KenPom No. 13

  • San Diego State (20-6, 9-4 Mountain West): NET No. 18 | KenPom No. 18

No. 5 seeds

  • Dayton (21-4, 11-2 Atlantic 10): NET No. 19 | KenPom: 24

  • BYU (18-7, 6-6 Big 12): NET No. 10 | KenPom No. 16

  • Kentucky (18-7, 8-4 SEC): NET No. 22 | KenPom No. 21

  • Saint Mary’s (21-6, 12-0 West Coast): NET No. 15 | KenPom No. 22

Though Houston has been the standout of the Big 12's four newcomers this season, BYU has done awfully well for itself, too. Despite being in a much more difficult league (and after being picked 13th out of 14 team's in the Big 12 preseason poll), the Cougars are one victory shy of matching their win total from last season. The road ahead won't be easy, though, as four of their final six regular-season games are against teams currently ranked in the Coaches Poll.

No. 6 seeds

  • Wisconsin (17-9, 9-6 Big Ten): NET No. 21 | KenPom No. 19

  • Texas Tech (18-7, 7-5 Big 12): NET No. 26 | KenPom No. 23

  • Colorado State (20-6, 8-5 Mountain West): NET No. 25 | KenPom No. 28

  • South Carolina (21-5, 9-4 SEC): NET No. 58 | KenPom No. 54

The Red Raiders have regained their traction after losing three in a row in late December and early January. Last week was a productive one for them in their push to get back to the NCAA Tournament, with a 29-point throttling of Kansas before losing by eight on the road vs. Iowa State. Wins this week at home against TCU and on the road against UCF could really solidify their tournament standing.

REQUIRED READING: Kansas State basketball guard Tylor Perry finds a way, even when 3-pointers don't fall

No. 7 seeds

  • Clemson (17-8, 7-7 ACC): NET No. 27 | KenPom No. 30

  • Florida Atlantic (20-6, 10-3 American Athletic): NET No. 29 | KenPom No. 34

  • Utah State (21-5, 9-4 Mountain West): NET No. 30 | KenPom: 41

  • Michigan State (17-9, 9-6 Big Ten): NET No. 20 | KenPom No. 15

No. 8 seeds

  • New Mexico (20-6, 8-5 Mountain West): NET No. 24 | KenPom No. 25

  • Florida (18-7, 8-4 SEC): NET No. 28 | KenPom No. 27

  • TCU (18-7, 7-5 Big 12): NET No. 36 | KenPom No. 32

  • Washington State (20-6, 11-4 Pac-12): NET No. 31 | KenPom No. 33

After going nearly two full weeks without a win, the Horned Frogs picked up two victories last week, knocking off West Virginia at home before beating Kansas State on the road with the help of a game-winning, step-back 3-pointer from Jameer Nelson Jr. with 1.1 seconds remaining.

No. 9 seeds

  • Virginia (20-6, 11-4 ACC): NET No. 41 | KenPom No. 53

  • Oklahoma (18-8, 6-7 Big 12): NET No. 39 | KenPom No. 37

  • Texas (16-9, 5-7 Big 12): NET No. 33 | KenPom: No. 29

  • Boise State (17-8, 8-4 Mountain West): NET No. 43 | KenPom No. 50

The Longhorns and Sooners have played themselves into a position in which they could miss their final NCAA Tournament opportunity before heading off to the SEC. Oklahoma has lost five of its past eight, capped off by losses last week against Kansas and Baylor that were decided by a combined 27 points. Texas has dropped four of its past six, including a 21-point thumping at the hands of Houston last weekend.

No. 10 seeds

  • Northwestern (18-8, 9-6 Big Ten): NET No. 56 | KenPom No. 47

  • Ole Miss (19-6, 6-6 SEC): NET No. 65 | KenPom No. 68

  • Nevada (20-6, 7-5 Mountain West): NET No. 44 | KenPom No. 45

  • Mississippi State (17-8, 6-6 SEC): NET No. 38 | KenPom No. 35

No. 11 seeds

  • Indiana State (22-5, 13-3 Missouri Valley): NET No. 32 | KenPom No. 49

  • Grand Canyon (24-2, 14-1 Western Athletic): NET No. 48 | KenPom No. 58

  • Texas A&M (15-10, 6-6 SEC)**: NET No. 45 | KenPom No. 43

  • Nebraska (18-8, 8-7 Big Ten)**: NET No. 49 | KenPom No. 40

  • Gonzaga (20-6, 10-2)**: NET No. 23 | KenPom No. 20

  • Providence (17-9, 8-7)**: NET No. 59 | KenPom No. 56

REQUIRED READING: Kansas basketball’s Bill Self says ‘we don’t win’ at Oklahoma without Kevin McCullar Jr.

No. 12 seeds

  • McNeese (23-4, 12-2 Southland): NET No. 52 | KenPom No. 63

  • Samford (22-3, 11-1 Southern): NET No. 66 | KenPom No. 71

  • Drake (22-5, 13-3 Missouri Valley): NET No. 46 | KenPom No. 48

  • South Florida (19-5, 12-1 American Athletic): NET No. 92 | KenPom No. 100

No. 13 seeds

  • UC Irvine (19-7, 12-2 Big West): NET No. 80 | KenPom No. 77

  • Yale (17-7, 8-1 Ivy): NET No. 82 | KenPom No. 87

  • Akron (19-6, 11-1 Mid-American): NET No. 93 | KenPom No. 97

  • Appalachian State (22-5, 12-2 Sun Belt): NET No. 76 | KenPom No. 85

No. 14 seeds

  • Charleston (19-7, 10-3 Colonial Athletic): NET No. 116 | KenPom No. 125

  • Morehead State (20-7, 11-3 Ohio Valley): NET No. 115 | KenPom No. 118

  • High Point (22-6, 11-2 Big South): NET No. 111 | KenPom No. 117

  • Vermont (21-6, 11-1 America East): NET No. 104 | KenPom No. 109

No. 15 seeds

  • Colgate (19-8, 13-1 Patriot): NET No. 127 | KenPom No. 140

  • Quinnipiac (19-6, 11-3 Metro Atlantic Athletic): NET No. 163 | KenPom No. 200

  • Oakland (18-10, 13-4 Horizon): NET No. 124 | KenPom No. 128

  • Eastern Washington (17-9, 11-2 Big Sky): NET No. 122 | KenPom No. 132

No. 16 seeds

  • Sam Houston State (15-11, 8-3 Conference USA): NET No. 177 | KenPom No. 172

  • Southern (16-9, 10-2 Southwestern Athletic): NET No. 196 | KenPom No. 210

  • Eastern Kentucky (15-11, 10-2 ASUN)**: NET No. 199 | KenPom No. 179

  • Merrimack (17-10, 11-2 Northeast)**: NET No. 202 | KenPom No. 204

  • Norfolk State (16-9, 6-2 Mid-Eastern Athletic)**: NET No. 224 | KenPom No. 248

  • North Dakota State (17-11, 9-4 Summit)**: NET No. 244 | KenPom No. 235

This article originally appeared on Topeka Capital-Journal: March Madness predictions 2.0: 2024 NCAA Tournament bracketology for Big 12