March Madness betting: Kansas getting just about all the bets for game vs. Villanova
This year's Final Four doesn't have a lot of surprises, but it does have blue bloods.
Duke, North Carolina, Kansas and Villanova are four of the most recognizable programs and brands in the sport. What we lost with a St. Peter's or even a random power conference team like Miami not making the Final Four, we gain with what should be two fun games.
Given the recognizability of all four programs, you'd think betting would be fairly equal on both sides of each semifinal game. But early on, just about everyone likes Kansas over Villanova.
Kansas favored over Villanova
Kansas opened as a 3.5-point favorite over Villanova, and that didn't last long.
The Jayhawks are currently a 4.5-point favorite at BetMGM for Saturday's game. That line move is because 79 percent of bets and 89 percent of the money on the spread came in on Kansas.
That'a a massive discrepancy, especially when you consider Villanova's history and how the Wildcats are playing. Villanova has three championships including 2016 and 2018. Jay Wright is one of the best coaches in the game. This tournament, Villanova was a No. 2 seed and has covered the spread in each of its four games. The Wildcats were a 3-point underdog to fifth-seed Houston in the Elite Eight and won 50-44.
One issue on Villanova's side, which is likely causing bets to come in on Kansas, is Justin Moore's injury. Moore suffered a torn Achilles late in the Elite Eight win. Moore was Villanova's second-leading scorer at 14.8 points per game. He started all 36 games he played in this season. Villanova relies heavily on its starters (it ranked 323rd of 358 Division I teams in percentage of minutes from bench players this season, via KenPom), and it won't be easy to replace a player who is arguably the Wildcats' second-best player.
The bets are also due to Kansas and how they enter the Final Four.
Kansas shined against Miami
The Jayhawks' second half against Miami was as good as a college basketball team can play on a big stage. They outscored Miami 47-15 after halftime. It was a reminder that Kansas is the lone No. 1 seed left, even if they're not the favorite to win it all.
At its best, Kansas looks every bit the part of a No. 1 seed and Final Four team. It's not a classic Kansas team with a bunch of recognizable stars, though Ochai Agbaji had a fantastic season and seems to be a likely first-round pick. It's a very good college team with all the right pieces, and got even stronger with Remy Martin finally emerging late in the season.
Bettors seem to believe in Kansas, at least to make Monday's championship game. That's where all the money is going.
