March Madness: 4 teams ripe for upsets in NCAA men's tournament

Forecasting the NCAA men's basketball tournament has been, and will always be, a semi-hopeless pursuit. Perfect brackets don't exist. Even the most educated picks can ultimately look silly. The unpredictability is, of course, what gives March Madness the second half of its name.

But unpredictable does not mean random. Difficult does not mean impossible. Some outcomes — some Final Four runs, some upsets — are more likely than others. Which is why we write this article year after year, hoping to identify teams who'll be overseeded and therefore vulnerable — because sometimes, we're right.

Last year was one of those times. Ahead of the 2021 tournament, we essentially picked a 12-over-5 upset and a 15-over-2 before matchups had even been released. Three of the five teams featured last March, including Ohio State and Tennessee, lost their openers.

[Join Yahoo Fantasy's free Tourney Pick'Em $25K Best Bracket Contest]

And sure, a fourth went to the Final Four, but the point stands: semi-hopeless doesn't mean completely hopeless. Reading this isn't a waste of your time. The goal is to help fans of tournament teams develop Selection Sunday rooting interests, and help the rest of you find upset picks before brackets have even been revealed.

So, without further delay, here are four 24-win-or-better contenders who could falter on the 2022 tournament's first weekend.

(Records, projected seedings and KenPom rankings through Friday's games.)

Wisconsin
24-7, 15-5 Big Ten | Projected seed: 3 | KenPom: 34

There has never been a bigger slam dunk for this list than the 2022 Wisconsin Badgers, whose regular season ended with a loss to lowly Nebraska and an injury to star forward Johnny Davis, and who appeared ripe for an upset even before their finale left them limping into the postseason.

The Badgers still claimed a share of the Big Ten title. But their best wins — over Houston and at Purdue — were months ago, by slim margins, and each fueled by 30-plus points from Davis, whose status and health are now unclear.

And the entirety of their season hinted at vulnerability. This is Wisconsin's worst 3-point shooting team of the 21st century. More importantly, it went 15-2 in games decided by six or fewer points, a sign that its overall win-loss record is inflated. The selection committee will dissect it and dub the Badgers a 2- or 3-seed. Ken Pomeroy's metrics suggest they play more like an 8-seed. They'll be vulnerable from the moment the Madness begins.

Purdue
26-6, 14-6 Big Ten | Projected seed: 3 | KenPom: 14

There is, admittedly, a lot to like about the Boilermakers — just not lately. Their defense has always been mediocre. Their offense slowed, literally and figuratively, throughout February and into March, shrinking their margin for error and leaving them susceptible to opponent shooting sprees.

The totality of their season tells of a Final Four contender, but the past month tells a truer story. Since Feb. 10, Purdue is 4-3, and two of the four wins very easily could have been losses — to Indiana and Maryland, two non-tourney teams, at home.

A first-round upset seems unlikely, but hey, that was the conventional wisdom last year as well. Conventional wisdom isn't always wise.

Providence
25-5, 14-3 Big East | Projected seed: 4 | KenPom: 47

A superficial glance at the Friars — outright Big East champs for the first time in school history — might suggest this is Providence's best team in five decades. But the conference they won was unremarkable, and possession-by-possession metrics suggest these Friars might be unremarkable too.

Like Wisconsin, they won an inordinate amount of tight games. Five of their last six were either losses or overtime tussles with middling foes. They have no standout star, and a coach who's 1-5 in the Big Dance. They'll almost surely be the most popular upset pick on their seed line.

USC
26-7, 14-6 Pac-12 | Projected seed: 7 | KenPom: 41

This is, in one sense, the same squad that rode a No. 6 seed to last year's Elite Eight. But more accurately, it's the remnants of that squad. Evan Mobley, its star, is going to be the NBA Rookie of the Year. Tahj Eaddy, the fearless senior guard, is also a pro. Isaiah White, who along with Eaddy spearheaded last year's Sweet 16 victory, has struggled under the compounding weights of fatherhood, graduate school and basketball.

What remains is another towering team that won more regular-season games than last year's, but that doesn't have the talent or the résumé to make noise in March. The Trojans only played five games against contenders for at-large bids, and only won two of them. They could be a prime 11-over-6 upset candidate.