Kentucky basketball NCAA Tournament projections after three straight losses at Rupp Arena
LEXINGTON — Things have gone from bad to worse for Kentucky's bracketology projections. After once being prognosticated as a potential top-three seed in this season's NCAA Tournament, the Wildcats have continued to slide in recent weeks.
After toughing out a 63-57 win at Arkansas on Jan. 27, Kentucky was 15-4 overall and 5-2 in SEC play. Since then, No. 20 UK is just 1-3 — with all three losses (Florida, Tennessee and Gonzaga) at Rupp Arena, the first time the nation's all-time winningest program has dropped three straight outings at the venue since it debuted in 1976.
Kentucky's only victory since the calendar flipped to February? A 109-77 road demolition of Vanderbilt — the worst team in the league, by far, per multiple metrics.
On Jan. 25, Bracket Matrix projected the Wildcats' average seed as 3.80, appearing in all 82 of its brackets. In the site's latest projections, released Monday, Kentucky has fallen nearly three full seed lines, now with an average seed of 6.53 (out of 94 total brackets).
Recent struggles notwithstanding, the Wildcats' NET ranking is 25 (through Monday's games), which actually is up two spots since last week. But after last week's loss to Gonzaga, Kentucky is just 2-5 in Quad 1 games, the most pivotal results for a team's tourney chances when Selection Sunday arrives in March.
Bracketville, which updated its bracket Tuesday morning, placed UK as the No. 6 seed in the West Region, taking on No. 11 seed Indiana State in a first-round matchup in Brooklyn, New York. Bracketologists.com, which creates a bracket using only NET rankings, listed the Wildcats as a 7-seed, where they would wrestle with 10-seed Washington State in the first round. BracketWAG.com, which released its newest projections after Monday's games concluded, slotted Kentucky as the No. 7 seed in the West Region, where it would face 10-seed New Mexico.
Here's a look at Kentucky's NCAA Tournament résumé as of Tuesday morning, as well as projections from a variety of national outlets:
Kentucky tournament resume and NET ranking
NET ranking: 25
KenPom ranking: 28
Quad 1 record: 2-5
Quad 2 record: 3-1
Quad 3 record: 5-1
Quad 4 record: 6-0
ESPN NCAA Tournament projections for Kentucky basketball
ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi released his new bracket Tuesday morning. He projected UK will be the No. 6 seed in the South Region, traveling to Pittsburgh, to take on No. 11 seed Grand Canyon in the first round.
Kentucky basketball in CBS sports bracketology
CBS Sports writer Jerry Palm released his latest update Monday afternoon. He placed Kentucky as the 7-seed in the West Region, making the short trip to Indianapolis to face 10-seed Indiana State in the first round.
UK basketball bracketology from USA TODAY Sports
USA TODAY's Paul Myerberg, Erick Smith and Eddie Timanus combined for a bracket for the network, which was released Tuesday morning. The bracket predicts Kentucky as the No. 8 seed in the East Region, where it would clash with ninth-seeded Texas in the first round in Brooklyn.
What's next for Kentucky basketball
UK has a pair of games this week, split between the home and the road.
First up: a date with Ole Miss at 9 p.m. Tuesday in Lexington. The Rebels, who haven't played in a week, are No. 59 in the NET rankings, which makes it a Quad 2 matchup for the Wildcats.
Kentucky's second outing this week has far bigger implications: a potential Quad 1 win Saturday evening at Auburn. The Tigers are the No. 7 team in the NET ratings. And the Wildcats need a Quad 1 triumph in the worst way; their last such victory was in their SEC opener at Florida on Jan. 6.
Neville Arena has become one of the nation's most vaunted venues for opposing teams. The Tigers are undefeated (12-0) at Neville in 2023-24 and have won 15 straight dating back to last season. Auburn hosts No. 11 South Carolina on Wednesday.
The Wildcats have lost three straight road games versus the Tigers, with UK's last win in Auburn coming in nail-biting fashion (82-80) in 2019.
Reach Kentucky men’s basketball and football reporter Ryan Black at rblack@gannett.com and follow him on X at @RyanABlack.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky basketball bracketology 2024: NCAA Tournament projections
