Jon Wilner evaluates USC’s College Football Playoff odds, resume, and more
It’s late October, which means the Pac-12 is in deep trouble as far as the College Football Playoff is concerned. You can pretty much set your watch to it every year.
The Pac-12, as you know, has not made the College Football Playoff since 2016, when the Washington Huskies went to the semifinals and lost to Alabama. That drought, if we are being brutally honest, is likely to continue for another year now that UCLA — the last unbeaten team in the conference — lost a game.
The Pac-12 isn’t officially eliminated, however. Jon Wilner of the Wilner Hotline lays out the landscape for USC and the other contenders in the Pac-12. Here’s what he said in his Saturday Night Five reaction column after Week 8’s games:
UTAH IS COOKED
Wilner:
The following assessment of the contenders assumes each team wins out and captures the conference championship.
Utah
Best-case record: 11-2
CFP prospects: Just this side of zeroAssessment: The Utes were effectively eliminated in early October when they stumbled at UCLA. No two-loss team has made the cut in the eight years of the CFP, and the Pac-12 won’t be the conference to change the paradigm.
OREGON ROASTED
Wilner:
Oregon
Best-case record: 12-1
CFP prospects: Weak but detectableAssessment: We’re hesitant to discount the Ducks entirely because any one-loss Power Five champion will receive consideration. But the magnitude of the season-opening face plant to Georgia won’t be easily overcome. There is no way to spin 49-3, no matter how impressive the Ducks perform down the stretch. And if Georgia claims the No. 1 seed, they have zero chance. Because that No. 1 vs. No. 4 matchup would be completely untenable.
UCLA SOFT SCHEDULE IS A CRUSHER
Wilner:
UCLA
Best-case record: 12-1
CFP prospects: North of slim, South of solid.Assessment: The Bruins would have three hurdles to overcome with the selection committee: 1) The 15-point loss to a team (Oregon) that lost to Georgia by 46 points; 2) The soft non-conference schedule; and 3) The impact of that non-conference schedule on their overall resume. The Bruins likely would have just three wins over teams in the final CFP rankings (Utah, USC and their opponent in the conference title game). We aren’t sure that’s enough.
WILNER ON USC
Wilner starts with this point about USC:
We split USC off from the other contenders because the Trojans are, in fact, on a different level — a higher level.
They possess a vastly better chance of qualifying for the CFP than Utah, Oregon or UCLA.
THE GEORGIA ANGLE
Wilner says that “USC is the only team that can finish 12-1 and avoid the Georgia stain.”
BEST-CASE SCENARIOS FOR EACH TEAM
Wilner asks his readers to “Think about it like this under the best-case scenarios laid out above:
“Utah would have two losses; Oregon would have lost to the Bulldogs by 46 points; and UCLA would have lost to the team that lost to Georgia by 46 points.
“But as a 12-1 conference champion, the Trojans would have either beaten Oregon in the Pac-12 title game or avoided playing the Ducks altogether.
“Their resume would have immunity, so to speak.”
DIRECT AND TO THE POINT
Wilner notes that “Many observers were quick to dismiss the Trojans after the one-point loss at Utah, and that was a serious mistake.
“If they beat UCLA on Nov. 19, thump Notre Dame on Nov. 26 and then beat either Oregon or Utah in the conference title game, the Trojans will receive serious consideration from the selection committee.”
BRAND BIAS
Wilner makes the point that “Also working in their favor, and never to be ignored: Brand bias.
“It exists, even in a space as objective as the selection committee’s boardroom. And you can bet your last dollar that one-loss USC, with Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams, would have oodles of support.”
CLOSING ARGUMENT FROM WILNER
Here it is:
Whether USC made the cut in that situation would depend on the competition — on the number of zero- and one-loss teams from other Power Five leagues.
It’s Oct. 23, and there are no perfect records left in the Pac-12.
But the conference remains alive in the playoff race as long as USC doesn’t lose again.
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT ON SATURDAY:
