What an Isaiah Collier-Boogie Ellis substitution pattern might look like at USC
Given the decision by Boogie Ellis to return to USC, the Trojans and their fans are naturally excited about the prospect of having Boogie and Isaiah Collier together on the floor. That’s going to be a knockout combination. However, one of the specific advantages of having two elite guards is that Andy Enfield can stagger them. This is true regardless of whether Bronny James joins the Trojans. If Bronny joins, that’s great, and USC will have a plan to juggle the three guards. However, if Bronny goes to Oregon or Ohio State, USC can still make great use of a Collier-Boogie backcourt.
Let’s look at how Enfield can use Collier and Boogie specifically, excluding Bronny from the equation.
Obviously, Enfield will want to have these two electric players together in crunch time. That will put maximum pressure on opposing defenses. Crucially, it will be very hard for defenses to double-team or trap either player, since doing that will free up the other.
Michigan State sent waves of bodies at Boogie Ellis in the NCAA Tournament. USC didn’t have another elite ballhandler to counter that move. Collier is that counter next season. Naturally, having those two in a closing lineup makes complete sense.
The staggers, then, will happen in the early and middle stages of games.
How can Enfield play these guys close to 30 minutes per game but not overextend them (33-35 minutes) and still have them on the floor together in crunch time? Let’s map it out.
You know that there are media timeouts at the first dead ball following the 16, 12, 8, and 4-minute marks of each half. That’s eight media timeouts per game.
Obviously, if either Collier or Boogie is on fire, there’s no point in taking him out of the game. This shouldn’t be an overly strict plan where rotations and substitution patterns are rigid. If one is cooking, let him continue to cook, and then sub him out later after he cools down. If he never really cools down and he winds up playing 35 minutes, that’s fine. Just sit him a few more minutes the next game, especially if that game is a Saturday game following a Thursday game. Give more minutes to the other backcourt player in such a situation to keep the two fresh over the course of the full season, thereby giving them a full tank for the NCAA Tournament.
In the absence of special circumstances, though, the media timeout structure would enable Enfield to do something like this:
Have both players start the game on the floor together. Sub out one of the two between the first two media timeouts (under-16 and under-12), near the 14-minute mark. If a player leaves near the 14-minute mark, he misses two live game minutes but is able to rest during the under-12 media timeout, thereby getting several minutes of real-time rest.
Sub out the other player at the under-12 media timeout. This gives the player multiple minutes of real-time rest plus the next few minutes after the under-12 timeout.
Bring back the first player between the under-12 and under-8 media timeouts, near the 10-minute mark. That player will have missed four live-game (scoreboard clock) minutes and received close to 10 minutes of real-time rest.
Bring back the second player at the under-8 media timeout. That player will also have missed roughly four live-game minutes, but by resting during both the under-12 and under-8 media timeouts, that player will get close to 12 or 13 minutes of real-time rest.
Give the first player a rest between the under-8 and under-4 media timeouts, near the 6-minute mark. Then bring that player back at the under-4 media timeout. That player will wind up missing six live-game minutes, meaning he will have played close to 14 minutes in the first half. If this substitution pattern is replicated in the second half, that player will wind up playing 28 minutes in a game. If one eliminates the two-minute sub-out late in the half, that player could play 30 minutes in a game.
Give the second player a one-minute rest after the under-4 media timeout in the first half, while the other player comes back in. This extends that player’s real-time rest. Reinsert that player with 2:30 to 3:00 left in the half. If this substitution/rest pattern is replicated in the second half, that player will play close to 30 minutes in a game.
Let’s map this out numerically.
Boogie Ellis minutes by half: Play from minutes 20-14, sub out at 14, return at 10 minutes, sub out at 6 minutes, return at 4 minutes, play until halftime/end of game. 14 minutes per half, 28 per game.
Isaiah Collier minutes by half: Play from minutes 20-12, sub out at 12, return at 8, sub out at 4, return at 3, play until halftime/end of game. 15 minutes per half, 30 per game.
Naturally, if a game is closer or especially important, Collier would come back at the under-4 media timeout in the second half. He wouldn’t miss that crucial minute late in the second half, so he would then play 31 minutes instead of 30. Similarly, Boogie might get a smaller rest late in a second half. Instead of sitting from the 6-minute mark all the way until the under-4 media timeout in the second half, he might sit for just one minute and come back with nearly five minutes left. He would play 29 minutes instead of 28.
All sorts of small alterations and tweaks could exist. The larger roadmap, however, is clear: Enfield would have both players together in the first four and last three minutes of each half, and in the last four minutes of each game, while not pushing them for 33-35 minutes every night. One of the two would be on the court at all times.
This is a sustainable long-term plan which would keep both players fresh throughout the season and yet have at least one of them guiding the team every minute of every game. Does that excite you as a USC hoops fan?
It certainly should.
